North Carolina vs Alabama Odds, Predictions: 2024 March Madness Sweet 16

Following comfortable wins over 16-seed Wagner and 9-seed Michigan State, North Carolina takes on 4-seed Alabama in the West Region Semifinals of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Thursday at 9:39 p.m. ET on CBS. Alabama reached the Sweet 16 with a first-round win over 13-seed College of Charleston and a 72-61 victory against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32.

Oddsmakers expect a close matchup, with the line set between 3.5 and 4.5 points, as of Tuesday.

Here, we will break down the North Carolina vs Alabama odds and predictions.

Fans of up-and-down basketball are likely in for a treat, as the over is set at 173.5, a fitting number given how well the Tar Heels and the Crimson Tide run the floor. Per KenPom, Alabama is the No. 8 team in the country in adjusted tempo, and both these teams are top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Tide are 4th in the country at 125.1 points per 100 possessions, and the Heels are 16th at 119.2 points per 100 possessions.

Let’s get into the matchup and give our best North Carolina vs Alabama betting pick.

Read More: North Carolina March Madness Odds | Best College Basketball Betting Sites | March Madness Odds

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North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

UNC has followed up an impressive regular season with a strong start to the NCAA Tournament. Carolina won by more than 25 points in its opener against overmatched Wagner. It got off to a slow start against Michigan State, which led the Heels 26-24 after 10 minutes, but Carolina had a 40-31 halftime lead after a furious run.

The Tar Heels face a stiff test against Alabama, which shoots 30 3-pointers per game, the fourth-most in the country. Carolina is one of the few teams that could be comfortable playing at Alabama’s pace thanks to speedy guards RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, and it’s also capable of slowing down the game to get the Tide out of its comfort zone.

The scouting report on UNC starts with Davis and veteran big man Armando Bacot, but the two X-factors for this team are Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. They combined to shoot 7-for-12 from 3 against Michigan State. Given Alabama’s defensive issues this year — it allowed over 100 points in three of its last six regular season/SEC tournament games, and it surrendered 96 to College of Charleston last Friday — it’s hard to imagine this team getting enough stops against UNC to advance on Thursday.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview

Coach Nate Oats’ breakneck pace makes Alabama one of the biggest wild cards of any team in the Sweet 16. Point guard Mark Sears, a first-team All-SEC selection this season, leads the way for the highest-scoring team in the country at 90.7 points per game. The Tide’s starting five includes three seniors who average better than 10 points per game, and seven of the top eight players in the rotation are willing three-point shooters.

One of the biggest storylines going into Carolina vs. Michigan State was the matchup between RJ Davis and Spartans guard Tyson Walker, and the battle between Davis and Sears will be crucial on Thursday.

The biggest question for Alabama is whether it can get the looks it has all season against a tough defensive team — Carolina is No. 6 on KenPom with 93.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Bama went 1-3 this season against Auburn and Tennessee, who are both top-5 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

One encouraging stat for Alabama: UNC is 3-6 on the year when allowing 80 points or more. Obviously, that bodes well for the high-scoring Crimson Tide.

North Carolina vs Alabama Betting Trends

North Carolina Tar Heels

• North Carolina is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina’s last 10 games.

Alabama Crimson Tide

• Alabama is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Alabama’s last 10 games.

North Carolina vs Alabama Predictions & Betting Pick

Thanks to its 3-point-heavy offense, Alabama has a ceiling few teams in the country can match. At the same time, the Tide are imminently beatable thanks to their defensive struggles and the variance that comes with such a reliance on outside shooting. UNC has played well defensively, especially down the stretch this year, but the Heels showed a willingness to play at a fast pace against Kentucky, Connecticut, and Tennessee in nonconference play. Given UNC’s struggles in its highest-scoring games this year, it will be interesting to see whether the Tar Heels are willing to make this a track meet.

All that being said, expect plenty of points in a game that otherwise looks hard to predict. The total in this matchup is high, but eight of Bama’s last 10 games have gone over, and these teams’ combined Over record this season is 43-26-1.

Prediction: North Carolina to advance

North Carolina vs Alabama Betting Picks: Over (173.5 at time of publishing)

North Carolina vs Alabama Injury Report

How to Watch North Carolina vs Alabama

• Date: Thursday, March 28, 2024
• Tip-Off: 9:39 p.m. ET
• Location: Crypto.com Arena — Los Angeles
• Where to Watch: CBS

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