Share 
War and soccer are dominating trending markets at Polymarket this week.
Traders are showing intense interest in the timing of a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, when the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal shipping volumes, and where oil prices will land by month’s end. In decidedly less serious matters, a clear favorite has emerged to hoist the Champions League trophy.
Peace in the Middle East? Not until December
As the war in Iran drags on, markets are skeptical that there will be any real progress in permanent peace talks until December. While the United States insists the temporary ceasefire remains intact, doubts are swirling.
If the temporary deal collapses and full-scale war resumes, U.S. consumers should be prepared for already high gas prices to approach all-time highs.
Champions League: Arsenal awaits its challenger
Arsenal advanced to the Champions League final for the second time in club history after defeating a scrappy Atletico Madrid 1-0 and 2-1 on Tuesday, winning 2-1 on aggregate.
The Gunners now look to today’s high-stakes clash between Bayern Munich and PSG to determine their opponent for the Budapest final. After a 5-4 thriller in the first leg favoring the French side, the aggregate score remains razor-thin.
While Arsenal sits comfortably in the final, Polymarket traders are split on the eventual champion: PSG and Bayern both hold 32% odds to hoist the trophy, while Arsenal trails slightly at 30%.
How high will oil prices go?
The average American may be relieved to learn that prediction markets do not expect West Texas Intermediate (WTI)crude oil prices to rise above $100 this month—a threshold not crossed since February.
There is 100% confidence in a sub-$100 high for May, and strong confidence that prices will stay below $95. Recent history shows crude oil remains highly sensitive to the conflict; if the temporary peace deal between the U.S. and Iran holds through the month, significant spikes are unlikely. However, should skirmishes jeopardize the agreement, prices could quickly surge past $100 a barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz remains constricted
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains stifled after Iran’s effective shutdown of the waterway, which handles approximately 20% of the global oil supply.
Currently, the U.S. maintains a blockade while Iran continues its military presence over the waterway. With no immediate end to the shipping slowdown in sight, Polymarket traders remain pessimistic, putting the odds of the strait returning to normal traffic this month at a meager 17%.
