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Prediction markets price Democrat James Talarico at about 69% to 71% to win the Texas Senate seat, up from about 62% two weeks ago, as Texans cast a record number of early ballots. More than 7.7 million people voted early, 40.5% of registered voters.
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Here are the final market odds, what the polls say, what the record turnout does and does not tell you, and why Texas polls have missed before.
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Prices and polls are dated snapshots, not predictions or guarantees. For live odds, see our 2026 midterm elections predictions hub.
Texas Senate Odds at a Glance
| Market | James Talarico (D) | Ken Paxton (R) |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (31 Oct to 1 Nov) | 68.6% to 70.3% | About 30% to 31% |
| Polymarket (31 Oct to 1 Nov) | 70.5% to 71.5% | About 28% to 30% |
Prices add to slightly more than 100% because of spreads and fees.
How the Odds Have Moved
| Date | Kalshi: Talarico | Polymarket: Talarico |
|---|---|---|
| 20 October | 62% | 63% |
| 26 to 27 October | 64% to 66% | 65% |
| 31 October to 1 November | 68.6% to 70.3% | 70.5% to 71.5% |
Both platforms have moved up by about eight points in two weeks. Between Saturday and Sunday, both moved slightly toward Ken Paxton, a reminder that a point or two is normal noise.
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What the Polls Say
| Source | Result |
|---|---|
| Polling average (1 Nov) | Talarico 49.2%, Paxton 45.8% |
| YouGov (latest, about 1 Nov) | Talarico 51%, Paxton 47% |
| Silver Bulletin | Talarico ahead by about 2.5 points |
| CBS News/YouGov (8 to 16 Oct) | Talarico 51%, Paxton 49% |
| Marist (8 to 11 Oct) | Talarico 47%, Paxton 45% (margin of error 4.9) |
Every poll above has Talarico ahead, by about two to four points. That is a lead, but a narrow one, and a market price of about 70% is consistent with it. Our markets versus polls guide explains why a margin and a probability differ.
Texas Voters Set an Early-Vote Record
| Election | Early votes | Share of registered voters |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 midterm | More than 7.7 million (preliminary, 1 Nov) | 40.5% |
| 2022 midterm | About 5.5 million | 31% |
| 2024 general election | About 9 million | 49% |
The 2026 figure surpasses the modern midterm record set in 2018, according to the Texas Tribune. More than 19 million Texans are registered to vote. A political scientist at Rice University told the Tribune this is “definitely high turnout” but that the open question is how many votes are still out there.
What Record Turnout Does Not Tell You
- Texas does not report voters’ party. Early voting data does not show how many Republicans or Democrats have voted.
- High turnout does not favour either side by itself. Harris County set early-voting records in 2018 too, and Democrats still lost that Senate race, as ABC13 notes.
- Early voters are not all voters. Election Day turnout is still to come, and one expert projected as many as 10 million ballots in total.
Why Texas Polls Have Missed Before
ABC13 in Houston reports that in each of the last three big statewide races in Texas, the final polls missed the result by 3.6 to 4.7 points, and that every public Senate poll this month shows a closer race than that.
That history is why a lead of about three points is not a safe margin. Polls can miss in either direction. It also explains why markets are not pricing Talarico near 90%.
The History Behind the Race
No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, according to the Texas Tribune and the Daily Beast. Beto O’Rourke came closer in 2018 than any Democrat has since, losing by 2.6 points. The seat is open after Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
Why Texas Matters for Senate Control
Republicans hold a 53 to 47 Senate majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Texas is the most-traded Senate race, with tens of millions of dollars traded on Kalshi alone. Our final Senate odds guide shows how it fits into the wider picture.
A Note for Texas Readers
Texas law prohibits betting on election outcomes, and whether that applies to prediction markets is being debated. Do not treat this page as a recommendation to trade. See our guide to politics election betting by state.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds in the Texas Senate race?
As of 31 October to 1 November, Kalshi and Polymarket price James Talarico at about 69% to 71% and Ken Paxton at about 28% to 31%.
Who is leading in Texas Senate polls?
Talarico leads in recent polls by about two to four points. The polling average on 1 November was 49.2% to 45.8%, and the latest YouGov poll had it at 51% to 47%.
How many Texans voted early?
More than 7.7 million, or 40.5% of registered voters, according to preliminary data reported by the Texas Tribune on 1 November. That is a midterm record.
Does high early turnout help one party?
Nobody knows yet. Texas does not report voters’ party, and record early turnout in 2018 did not prevent a Democratic loss.
How accurate are Texas polls?
In the last three big statewide races, final polls missed the result by 3.6 to 4.7 points, according to ABC13.
Can you bet on the Texas Senate race?
Texas prohibits election betting under state law, and the legal position of prediction markets is contested. Check the law before trading anywhere.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. You can lose your entire stake, and most people who trade on prediction markets lose money. Platforms are typically 18+ and are not available in all states, and some states prohibit betting on elections. Prices and polls are snapshots, not predictions or guarantees. This article is informational and is not financial, legal or voting advice. GamingToday does not endorse any candidate or party. If gambling or trading stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.
