Weather Prediction Markets: Trade Temperature, Rain and Climate Odds

You can trade the weather. Regulated prediction markets list daily high temperatures for roughly two dozen US cities, along with monthly rain and snow totals, hurricane seasons, and long-range climate questions like where this year will rank among the hottest on record. Every temperature contract settles on one official weather station, so knowing which station counts matters as much as reading the forecast. Below, we break down the platforms, the stations, six of the most-searched city markets, and the settlement rules new traders tend to miss.

Settlement rules and platform details last checked October 14, 2026.

Here are the essentials at a glance before we get into the details.

Weather odds by city: what trades and where

Daily temperature markets run on a steady rhythm. On Kalshi, each city's contracts for a given day typically open the morning before, trade through the observation day, and settle the following morning once the official climate report posts. Robinhood carries many of the same city markets, while Polymarket lists temperature contracts for major US cities on its US app and for dozens of international cities on its global exchange.

Prices move all day as forecasts update, so we don't publish a live odds feed here. Use the board below to see which market types are typically listed in each city, then check the platform itself for current pricing. Linked city names jump to our deeper breakdowns further down the page.

Listings change with the seasons, and smaller cities sometimes go quiet between busy stretches, so treat this as a map of what usually trades rather than a guarantee that every contract is open today.

Can you bet on the weather?

Yes. You can trade on the weather in the US through CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Instead of placing a bet with a bookmaker, you buy Yes or No contracts on outcomes like a city's daily high, monthly rainfall, or hurricane landfalls, and each winning contract pays $1.

Weather contracts work the same way as every other event contract on these prediction markets. Each one trades between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price doubles as the market's implied probability. If the 76°F to 77°F bracket for tomorrow's New York high costs 34¢, traders collectively see about a 34% chance the official high lands there. If it does, each contract pays $1. If it doesn't, the contract expires worthless, so the most you can lose is what you paid.

Most weather markets come in one of two formats. Bracket markets split the likely range into narrow bands, usually a degree or two wide, plus open-ended tails like "70°F or below" and "85°F or above," and only one bracket can win. Threshold markets ask a single question, such as whether the temperature at a set hour will be above a given level, which makes them simpler to read but less precise. On most platforms, you can also sell a position before settlement if a buyer is available, locking in a gain or trimming a loss without waiting for the final reading.

Weather markets vs. weather derivatives

The phrase "weather market" also describes a much older corner of finance. CME Group lists weather futures and options built on heating degree days and cooling degree days, which utilities, energy companies, and agricultural firms use to hedge against unusually hot or cold seasons. Those products require a futures account and trade in sizes built for institutions. Prediction market weather contracts are a retail product instead, with plain Yes or No questions, small position sizes, and payouts capped at $1 per contract. This page covers the prediction market side.

Best weather prediction market platforms

Weather coverage varies more from platform to platform than almost any other event category. Polymarket has the broadest geographic reach, with daily temperature markets across dozens of international cities plus hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and annual heat rankings. Kalshi built the original US lineup of city temperature contracts and still runs the deepest menu of daily, hourly, rain, and snow markets for American cities. Robinhood brings many of those same contracts into its investing app, while OG and ForecastEx lean toward long-range climate questions rather than tomorrow's high.

The right fit depends on what you want to trade. Traders who follow the daily forecast in specific US cities will spend most of their time on city brackets, while traders interested in climate trends, storm seasons, or international weather will want the broader menus. The table below compares the weather offering on each platform we track.

Here's a closer look at what each platform actually offers traders who are specifically interested in weather and climate.

ForecastEx (Interactive Brokers)

ForecastEx, the CFTC-regulated exchange owned by Interactive Brokers, takes a macro approach to climate. Its forecast contracts cover global temperature, US temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rather than daily city highs, with prices running from 2¢ to 99¢ and a $1 payout for a correct outcome. Access runs through an Interactive Brokers account, and you'll need to request the forecast and event contract trading permission first, which typically takes a day or two to approve. It's a strong fit for investors who want climate exposure alongside a traditional brokerage portfolio, and a weak fit for anyone hoping to trade tomorrow's forecast.

Weather is only one slice of the event contract world. If you want to compare how these platforms handle other categories, see our guides to sports prediction markets, political prediction markets, economic prediction markets, and pop culture prediction markets.

Which weather station settles each market?

Every temperature contract names one official station in its rules, and that reading is the only one that counts. Your phone's weather app, a TV forecast, or a backyard thermometer can all show different numbers. The table below lists the station of record for Kalshi's US daily temperature cities, which Robinhood's matching contracts follow as well.

Station assignments can change, as Polymarket showed when it moved its Paris contracts to a different airport in 2026, so confirm the station in the rules of the exact contract you're trading.

The August 2026 change: The Weather Company and the NWS climate report

On August 27, 2026, Kalshi announced The Weather Company as the data provider it uses to verify weather outcomes. Hourly temperature contracts settle on The Weather Company's reported value for the station named in the rules. For daily highs and lows, the station of record is still identified by its NWS climate report, and Kalshi's help center continues to point daily contracts to the final NWS Daily Climate Report, while some live rulebooks now reference The Weather Company. With two sources in play during the transition, the rules tab on the specific contract you trade is the final word.

Climate day, standard time, and rounding

Daily temperature markets don't follow a midnight-to-midnight calendar day during daylight saving time. NWS climate reports run on local standard time, so from March to November the official day covers 1:00 a.m. to 12:59 a.m. the following night, local daylight time. A late-evening warm surge after midnight can still count toward the previous day's high. Official climate reports also record the high in whole degrees Fahrenheit, while live apps may display decimals or convert from Celsius, so a reading that looks like 80°F on your phone can print as 79°F in the report.

Settlement usually happens the morning after the observation day, once the final report posts. If the final climate report conflicts with hourly airport observations or arrives with a clear error, settlement can be delayed until the data is reviewed or corrected.

Why Kalshi and Polymarket can settle the same city differently

Two contracts on the same city's high can resolve differently for three reasons. The platforms may use different stations, they may draw from different data sources, such as an NWS climate report versus airport observation data logged since local midnight, and they may handle revised data differently. A one-degree gap between sources is common, and in bracket markets one degree is often the difference between winning and losing. Before treating two prices as the same bet, compare the station, the data source, and the time window in each market's rules.

City temperature markets

Every city market works the same way on paper, but local geography gives each one a personality. These six cities draw some of the most search interest from weather traders, and each comes with a station quirk worth knowing before you trade. Chicago, Miami, Denver, Philadelphia, and the rest of the lineup are covered in the board and station table above.

LA temperature market (LAX)

Los Angeles contracts settle on the station at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), which sits about a mile from the Pacific. That location shapes everything. On a typical day, the marine layer keeps LAX several degrees cooler than downtown and far cooler than the San Fernando Valley, so a forecast high pulled from a general "Los Angeles" weather app can overshoot the station badly. The bigger risk runs the other way in fall and winter. When Santa Ana winds blow offshore, coastal stations can surge well above normal in a single day, and October sits squarely in that season. Kalshi lists both daily high and daily low markets for LA. Before trading, pull the NWS point forecast for the airport itself rather than the city, and watch the wind forecast closely whenever offshore flow is in play.

San Francisco temperature market (SFO)

San Francisco contracts settle at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), roughly a dozen miles south of downtown on the bay shore. That's a meaningful difference for anyone checking a city forecast. Fog and the afternoon sea breeze can hold the western neighborhoods in the 60s while SFO runs warmer, and inland heat can push the airport higher than the city on the same afternoon. San Francisco's warm season also defies most traders' instincts: the city's hottest stretch typically comes in September and October, when the fog backs off, not in July. Monthly rainfall contracts for San Francisco have also appeared, and they become more relevant once the wet season starts in late fall. For daily highs, watch the fog and wind forecast as closely as the temperature number.

Houston high temperature market (Hobby, KHOU)

Houston contracts settle at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), southeast of downtown, not at Bush Intercontinental (KIAH) north of the city. That's an easy mistake, since many Houston weather searches default to the larger airport, and the KHOU code also happens to match a local TV station's call letters. Hobby sits closer to Galveston Bay, so a Gulf breeze can shave a degree or two off the afternoon high compared with northern suburbs. In summer, Houston highs cluster in a tight band in the 90s, which compresses bracket prices and makes small forecast differences matter more. Afternoon thunderstorms are the wild card: a storm that rolls through before peak heating can cap the high early, while a storm-free day can run hotter than forecast. Check radar trends and storm timing, not just the forecast high.

Austin temperature market (Bergstrom, KAUS)

Austin contracts settle at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), southeast of downtown. That catches traders off guard, because Camp Mabry, northwest of downtown, is the city's long-running climate site and the station many local forecasts and record books reference. The two sites can differ by several degrees, particularly overnight and on calm, clear days. Austin's summer pattern brings long runs of triple-digit heat, when brackets bunch near 100°F and pricing gets tight. In fall and spring, cold fronts can swing the high by 15 degrees or more from one day to the next, and frontal timing becomes the key variable: a front that arrives before midafternoon caps the high, while a later arrival lets the day heat up first. Always confirm whether a forecast you're reading is for Bergstrom or Camp Mabry.

New York temperature market (Central Park, KNYC)

New York is the most actively traded US weather market, and it settles at the Central Park station (KNYC), not at LaGuardia or JFK. The Central Park sensor sits among trees inside the park, and on sunny summer afternoons it has a reputation for reading a bit cooler than the city's airport stations. Sea breezes add another variable, since an onshore wind can hold the high down on a day the forecast looked hot. New York also offers the deepest weather menu of any US city, with daily lows, hourly temperature contracts, monthly rainfall, and snowfall markets on top of daily highs. That depth brings more liquidity and tighter pricing, which makes New York a sensible starting point for new weather traders. Use the NWS forecast for Central Park specifically, and remember the climate day runs on standard time from March to November.

Phoenix temperature market (Sky Harbor, KPHX)

Phoenix contracts settle at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (KPHX), close to the center of the metro area. Summer is when this market stands apart. Highs routinely land in the 100s, and under a stable ridge of high pressure the day-to-day variation can be small, so bracket pricing often concentrates heavily around one or two bands. The monsoon season, roughly July through September, adds volatility: afternoon clouds, outflow winds, and dust storms can cap a high several degrees below forecast. The urban heat island also keeps overnight temperatures unusually high, which makes Kalshi's Phoenix daily low market an interesting option alongside the daily high. By October, highs ease back toward the 80s and 90s, and the market behaves more like other desert cities. Watch monsoon moisture and storm outflow forecasts in late summer.

Ready to try a city market? Polymarket lists temperature contracts on major US cities and dozens of international ones, and new users can start with its welcome offer.

Climate markets beyond daily temperature

Daily highs get the most attention, but they're only part of the weather menu. Seasonal and long-range contracts let you trade storms, precipitation, and climate trends on a much longer clock, and they often react to different information than tomorrow's forecast.

Rain and snow

Rainfall markets on Kalshi are typically monthly, asking whether a city's total precipitation for the month will clear a set threshold. Cities with monthly rain contracts have included New York, Chicago, Denver, Dallas, and Seattle, and they settle on the NWS climatological report for the named station. Snowfall contracts come in two forms: monthly totals for snowy locations, including ski areas, and event-based markets on major storms. Kalshi's snow contracts settle by adding up the daily new-snow values in NWS records, with a trace or missing reading counted as zero, which can matter in a month of light dustings.

Hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and hurricane contracts follow that calendar. Markets cover the number of named storms, how many reach hurricane strength, how intense the strongest storm gets, and whether a storm makes US landfall in a given window. Kalshi's contracts read National Hurricane Center advisories and use standard Saffir-Simpson thresholds, starting at 74 mph for a Category 1. Late in the season, markets tend to hinge on whether any additional storms form at all, so pricing can swing sharply on a single tropical outlook.

Hottest year on record and global temperature

Annual heat-ranking markets ask where the current year will finish among the hottest years on record. Polymarket and OG both list versions, and pricing shifts as each month's global temperature data is published, especially late in the year when most of the data is already in. These contracts usually resolve early the following year, once the major climate agencies publish their annual rankings. ForecastEx offers a related angle with contracts on global temperature, US temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Tornadoes and earthquakes

Polymarket's natural-event lineup includes monthly US tornado counts, split into numerical brackets, along with earthquake markets that count events above set magnitudes, typically around 6.5 or 7.0, over weekly or annual windows. Kalshi lists earthquake magnitude contracts as well. Wildfire contracts are a different story: they are not offered by Kalshi or Polymarket's US app, and a bill introduced in Congress in 2026 would bar US-registered platforms from listing them.

Weather market calendar: what's trading this season

Weather markets follow the seasons, and the busiest contracts change through the year. Daily temperature brackets trade year-round, but the seasonal markets layered on top rotate as storms, snow, and heat come and go. Here's what typically draws the most trading at each point on the calendar.

Seasonal timing also changes how daily markets behave. Summer highs in hot, stable climates tend to cluster tightly, while spring and fall bring more volatile swings as fronts move through.

Weather trading tips and mistakes to avoid

Weather markets reward precision, and most losing trades come from a handful of avoidable mistakes. Keep these in mind before you open a position.

• Use the station's forecast, not the city's. A city forecast often reflects downtown conditions, while the contract settles at a specific station that may be miles away, near water, or at a different elevation.
• Know the climate day. During daylight saving time, the official day runs from 1:00 a.m. to 12:59 a.m. the following night, so a late-evening temperature can still count toward the earlier day.
• Expect thin cities to move on small orders. Smaller city markets can see prices jump on modest trades. Use limit orders and avoid chasing a price that just moved.
• Watch for late-day forecast shifts. Cloud cover, storms, and wind changes can move the high late in the day, and prices often react faster than the published forecast updates.
• Never treat a cross-platform price gap as a guaranteed profit. Two platforms can settle the same city on different stations, sources, or time windows, so an apparent gap may simply reflect two different contracts.

For a deeper look at building a repeatable approach, our breakdown of prediction market strategies covers position sizing and timing across categories, and our guide to prediction market arbitrage explains when a price gap between platforms is worth acting on and when fees or settlement differences erase it.

Is weather betting legal?

Yes. Trading on weather outcomes is legal in the US through CFTC-regulated prediction markets, which treat weather contracts as federally regulated event contracts rather than gambling products. That's why you won't find temperature or rainfall markets on state-licensed sportsbooks, but you will find them on platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood.

You must be at least 18 to open an account on the platforms covered here. Availability still varies by platform and state, and several states have challenged prediction markets in court, mostly over sports contracts. Weather and climate markets have drawn less of that scrutiny so far, though lawmakers have raised concerns about specific categories such as wildfires. Platform availability on this page was last checked October 14, 2026, so confirm current access in your state before funding an account.

How we source and update this page

Platform details, market listings, and settlement rules on this page are checked against each platform's own market pages, rulebooks, and help documentation, along with official NWS and National Hurricane Center sources, rather than pulled from a live feed. The station assignments and platform comparisons above reflect our most recent full review, completed October 14, 2026.

About this page

This guide is part of GamingToday's broader coverage of prediction markets and regulated real-money gaming, including online casinos, social casinos, and sweepstakes casinos.

Responsible trading and disclosures

Prediction markets involve real financial risk, and no forecast guarantees a winning trade. If trading stops feeling like a hobby, resources are available for help: call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org. You must be 18 or older to trade on the platforms covered here.

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