World Cup Golden Boot Odds: France’s Kylian Mbappe Heavily Favored at Qatar 2022

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With the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup’s Round of 16 nearly complete, it’s a perfect time to lock in wagers on the World Cup Golden Boot odds.

While top sportsbooks don’t differ much when it comes to tournament futures, they do offer a wide range of prices for the Golden Boot contenders.

Golden Boot Odds – Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup

With five goals through four games, France’s Kylian Mbappe is the massive favorite to win this year’s Golden Boot. At DraftKings, Mbappe is currently -165. Keep in mind that the Golden Boot winner has scored six or fewer in every World Cup since 1978, with just one exception: 2002, when Brazil’s Ronaldo scored eight.

That means that even if France are eliminated by England in the quarterfinals on Saturday, Mbappe will have a fighting chance to take home the Golden Boot, though a number of players — seven on teams that are still alive — have scored three goals.

DraftKings currently gives just five players odds of +2500 or shorter to win the Golden Boot: Argentina’s Lionel Messi, Brazil’s Richarlison, Spain’s Alvaro Morata, France’s Olivier Giroud, and Netherlands’ Cody Gakpo.

Below is a peek at the Golden Boot odds for these star players at DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers, and FanDuel.

PlayerDraftKingsCaesarsBetRiversFanDuel
Kylian Mbappe (France)-165-187-155-170
Lionel Messi (Argentina)+1000+900+1100+1400
Richarlison (Brazil) +650+1000+700+750
Alvaro Morata (Spain)+1400+1400+1400+1600
Olivier Giroud (France)+1600+1800+1600+2300
Cody Gakpo (Netherlands)+2500+2200+2300+3400

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2022 World Cup Golden Boot Odds Analysis

Why Kylian Mbappe is the Clear Favorite (Best Value: -155 on BetRivers)

As we outlined above, Mbappe is well out in front of the field. It also helps that he plays for the consensus second-favorite to win the World Cup. Mbappe needs another goal or two to cement himself as the likely Golden Boot winner, but he’s well on his way.

golden boot odds, Kylian Mbappe
France’s Kylian Mbappe has become the odds-on favorite to win the Golden Boot at the 2022 Qatar World Cup (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

It’s not as if Mbappe has been lucky, either. His five goals have come on 6.9 xG — and 6.9 non-penalty XG. That means that if anything, Mbappe has been a bit unlucky, or inefficient with his chances, so far in Qatar. Yet another reason Mbappe offers decent value even as the clear favorite: he has not yet scored via PK, and he essentially missed one match, as France rotated their players in their meaningless group play finale against Tunisia (Mbappe played 28 minutes as a sub in that one).

The only thing more impressive — and encouraging for his odds of adding to his tally — than five goals in four matches is five goals (with no PKs) in just over three games.

Also check: 2022 World Cup odds

The Case for Lionel Messi (Best Value: +1400 on FanDuel)

  • Messi will likely have a say in this race as long as Argentina stay in the tournament. With three of his team’s seven goals, and two penalty kick attempts already (he has gone for 1-for-2 from the spot), Messi is going to have his chances.
  • Argentina arguably have a slightly easier quarterfinal matchup — they face Netherlands in the quarterfinals on Friday at 2 p.m. Eastern — than France, who meet England in the quarters on Saturday at 2 p.m. Eastern.

The case against Messi

  • It’s concerning, if you’re backing Messi to overtake Mbappe, that he has three goals after playing almost an entire extra game and attempting two PKs, while Mbappe has not attempted one.

The case for Richarlison (Best Value: +1000 on Caesars)

  • Sometimes, the Golden Boot goes to the player who simply gets the hottest at the right time, and Richarlison has scored a couple of stunners for Brazil.

The case against Richarlison

  • The depth of Brazil’s attack means defenses can’t lock in on him, but it also means fewer shots: Richarlison has taken just seven so far, including only four on target.
  • Brazil’s bevy of attacking options also means it’s no guarantee Richarlison starts every match the rest of the way.
  • Any PKs Brazil draws will most likely be taken by Neymar.

The case for Alvaro Morata (Best Value: +1600 on FanDuel)

  • Morata runs hot and cold, and he’s currently in form, scoring three goals in just three games so far for Spain. His output is even more impressive given the fact he’s only started one match, and played a total of just 127 minutes.

The case against Morata

  • His goals per minute numbers so far are unmatched, but it’s a massive gamble to bet on a player who is unlikely to play 90 minutes in a given match.

The case for Olivier Giroud (Best Value: +2300 on FanDuel)

  • With defenses locked in on Mbappe, Giroud will enjoy quality opportunities. And he’s shown throughout his career that he can capitalize, as he just became France’s all-time leading scorer with 52 goals in 117 caps.

The case against Giroud

  • He’s not the focal point of the French attack, even if he’s an undeniably dangerous part of it.

The case for Cody Gakpo (Best Value: +3400 on FanDuel)

  • Gakpo, at just 23, is one of the most talented young players in Qatar, and he’s done a ton with relatively few chances — his three goals on just 0.3 xG speak to how incredible those goals were.

The case against Gakpo

  • The down side of outperforming xG that dramatically is that it’s almost impossible to sustain.

Past Golden Boot Winners

See the previous winners of the FIFA Golden Boot award, from England’s Kane in 2018 to Guillermo Stabile in 1930, below:

YearWinnerNationalityGoals Scored
2018Harry Kane England6
2014James Rodriguez
Colombia6
2010Thomas Muller
Germany5
2006Miroslav Klose
Germany5
2002Ronaldo Brazil8
1998Davor Suker
Croatia6
1994Oleg Salenko
Russia6
1990Salvatore Schillaci Italy6
1986Gary Lineker England6
1982Paolo Rossi
Italy6
1978Mario Kempes Argentina6
1974Grzegorz Lato Poland7
1970Gerd Muller Germany10
1966EusebioPortuguese9
1962Florian Albert Hungary4
1958Just FontaineFrance13
1954Sandor KocsisHungary11
1950AdemirBrazil8
1938LeonidasBrazil8
1934Oldrich NejedlyCzech Republic5
1930Guillermo StabileArgentina8

Golden Boot Odds FAQ

How do you read World Cup Golden Boot odds?

You can find 2022 World Cup Golden Boot odds listed as straightforward futures prices. Let’s take Harry Kane for example. If you bet on him at +700, then a successful $100 bet would net $700 in profits for a total payout of $800.

It’s always recommended to shop around at the best sportsbooks to find the most competitive odds for your soccer bets.

How do you bet on World Cup top scorer odds?

In addition to DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers, other online sportsbooks such as BetMGM and PointsBet are licensed operators in several states across the US. We recommend all of them as top options for betting on the World Cup. The strength of their sports betting apps relative to other options on the market put them in a class by themselves.

Can there be two Golden Boot winners?

No, there can only be one Golden Boot winner per World Cup.

There could be more than one top goalscorer, but there can only be one Golden Boot winner. If there is a tie, the player with the most assists will be given the Golden Boot. If there is still a tie, then the player who played the least amount of time throughout the tournament will be awarded the trophy.

 

About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett has been a sportswriter since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He's covered sports and sports business for a number of newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer and Sports Business Journal, where he currently works full-time.

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