With the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup’s semifinals set to kick off on Tuesday, it’s a perfect time to lock in wagers on the World Cup Golden Boot odds.
Golden Boot Odds – Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup
With five goals through five games, France’s Kylian Mbappe is still the clear favorite to win this year’s Golden Boot. He could have all but locked it up with a goal or two against England in the quarterfinals. Instead, England shut him down, and with Messi getting his fourth goal in Argentina’s quarterfinal win over Netherlands, Mbappe now leads Messi just 5-to-4.
At DraftKings, Mbappe is currently -225. Oddsmakers currently only give Messi (+275 on DraftKings) and Mbappe’s teammate Olivier Giroud (+700) — who has three goals — a legitimate shot to win the Golden Boot.
Below is a peek at the Golden Boot odds for these star players at DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers, and FanDuel.
| Player | DraftKings | Caesars | BetRivers | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe (France) | -225 | -225 | -240 | -210 |
| Lionel Messi (Argentina) | +275 | +250 | +300 | +300 |
| Olivier Giroud (France) | +700 | +700 | +700 | +650 |
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2022 World Cup Golden Boot Odds Analysis
Why Kylian Mbappe is the Clear Favorite (Best Value: -210 on FanDuel)
As we outlined above, Mbappe is well out in front of everyone besides Messi. It also helps that he plays for the team that is the favorite to win the World Cup now that Brazil and England have been eliminated. Still, Mbappe likely needs another goal or two to take home the Golden Boot, as Messi is right on his heels.
Mbappe has not yet scored via PK, while two of Messi’s four goals have come from the spot. If France reach the final, it’s easy to imagine Mbappe getting at least one PK opportunity at some point in the next 180 minutes.
If there’s one “concern,” it’s that Mbappe’s five goals have come on 2.7 xG. That indicates that he’s had fewer goal-scoring opportunities than you might imagine.
Also check: 2022 World Cup odds
The Case for Lionel Messi (Best Value: +300 on BetRivers)
- Messi will likely have a say in this race as long as Argentina stay in the tournament. With four of his team’s nine goals, and three penalty kick attempts already (he has gone for 2-for-3 from the spot), Messi is going to have his chances.
- Argentina arguably have an easier semifinal matchup — they face Croatia on Tuesday at 2 p.m. Eastern — than France, who meet Morocco on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. While Croatia boast far more experience than Morocco, based on what we’ve seen so far, Messi should have more opportunities against Croatia than Mbappe will against a suffocating, defense-oriented Morocco side.
The case for Olivier Giroud (Best Value: +700 on Caesars)
- With defenses locked in on Mbappe, Giroud is getting quality opportunities. He’s also making the most of them, with his header of a perfect cross from Antoine Griezmann against England the latest example. And he’s shown throughout his career that he can capitalize.
The case against Giroud
- He’s not the focal point of the French attack, even if he’s an undeniably dangerous part of it.
Past Golden Boot Winners
See the previous winners of the FIFA Golden Boot award, from England’s Kane in 2018 to Guillermo Stabile in 1930, below:
| Year | Winner | Nationality | Goals Scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Harry Kane | England | 6 |
| 2014 | James Rodriguez | Colombia | 6 |
| 2010 | Thomas Muller | Germany | 5 |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose | Germany | 5 |
| 2002 | Ronaldo | Brazil | 8 |
| 1998 | Davor Suker | Croatia | 6 |
| 1994 | Oleg Salenko | Russia | 6 |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | Italy | 6 |
| 1986 | Gary Lineker | England | 6 |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Italy | 6 |
| 1978 | Mario Kempes | Argentina | 6 |
| 1974 | Grzegorz Lato | Poland | 7 |
| 1970 | Gerd Muller | Germany | 10 |
| 1966 | Eusebio | Portuguese | 9 |
| 1962 | Florian Albert | Hungary | 4 |
| 1958 | Just Fontaine | France | 13 |
| 1954 | Sandor Kocsis | Hungary | 11 |
| 1950 | Ademir | Brazil | 8 |
| 1938 | Leonidas | Brazil | 8 |
| 1934 | Oldrich Nejedly | Czech Republic | 5 |
| 1930 | Guillermo Stabile | Argentina | 8 |
Golden Boot Odds FAQ
You can find 2022 World Cup Golden Boot odds listed as straightforward futures prices. Let’s take Harry Kane for example. If you bet on him at +700, then a successful $100 bet would net $700 in profits for a total payout of $800.
It’s always recommended to shop around at the best sportsbooks to find the most competitive odds for your soccer bets.
In addition to DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers, other online sportsbooks such as BetMGM and PointsBet are licensed operators in several states across the US. We recommend all of them as top options for betting on the World Cup. The strength of their sports betting apps relative to other options on the market put them in a class by themselves.
No, there can only be one Golden Boot winner per World Cup.
There could be more than one top goalscorer, but there can only be one Golden Boot winner. If there is a tie, the player with the most assists will be given the Golden Boot. If there is still a tie, then the player who played the least amount of time throughout the tournament will be awarded the trophy.
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