Alabama vs. UConn Odds, Predictions, Betting Preview: 4/6/24

There is just one more game before we know the national championship matchup. The final NCAAB semifinal matchup features the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide taking on the defending national champs, No. 1 UConn Huskies. This should be a great game, and we are here to break down the Alabama vs. UConn odds.

Alabama is in the Final Four for the first time in program history. Their reward is taking on the defending champs, who have dominated everything in its path in March. Still, Bama has enough firepower and is playing defense well enough to make this an incredible game.

It is no surprise that UConn will play as the betting favorite (). However, it is hard to ignore how good the Tide have been in the tournament. Picking a side can be challenging with such an intriguing matchup. Luckily, we have poured through the data and will give out our best Alabama vs. UConn Final Four predictions.

Alabama vs. UConn Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

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Alabama Betting Preview

Undoubtedly, Alabama can keep up with any team in the country, including UConn. They hit a ton of threes, play with a fast tempo, and have a hot hand to fall back on in Marcus Sears. On the season, Sears averages 21.5 points per game and shoots 43% from deep.

He has kept that same pace in March. There are plenty of other options outside of Sears to get a bucket on this team. The question is: Can Alabama continue to improve on defense?

The Crimson Tide are playing much better defensively as a unit. However, they still have allowed point totals of 96, 87, and 82 against offenses less dominant than the Huskies. Luckily, they have done an excellent job defending the three-point line, allowing teams to shoot only 31.5% from deep.

Getting stops inside is almost out of the question for Alabama, especially against UConn. But, if they can continue to hit shots at a high clip and defend jump shooters well, they can keep this game close. Even if they cannot do enough to have a chance at winning, running a negative game script with this offense gives us a leg-up if we decide to take the points with Nate Oats’ squad.

UConn Betting Preview

What else is there to say about UConn?

Since last season, they have won 10 straight tournament games by double digits. They have also been up by at least 30 points in all March Madness games in 2024. That is truly unheard of dominance, and at this point, no one has even come close to looking like they can compete.

This Final Four matchup may not be much different. The Huskies beat Illinois, a team similar in style to Alabama, by 25 points, thanks to a 30-0 run to start the second half. Most games for UConn have started slow, and in the second half, they overwhelm you with adjustments on both ends.

While they do not shoot the three at the same volume as Alabama, they hit 36% of shots from beyond the arc and have the size advantage to gobble up offensive rebounds and keep possessions alive. The ultimate key to this game is keeping the ball away from the Tide as much as possible.

Honestly, UConn will lose only if it cannot hit a jump shot and have turnover troubles. But they play at a pace that is slow enough to limit Alabama’s time on the attack. Dan Hurley’s squad opened as an 11-point favorite for a reason, and they are in prime position to return to the national championship game.

Alabama vs. UConn Betting Trends

Alabama Crimson Tide (25-11, 21-15 ATS)

Bama is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Bama’s last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in six of Bama’s last six games as the underdog.

UConn Huskies (35-3, 26-12 ATS)

UConn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of UConn’s last five games.
UConn is 10-1 ATS in neutral site games.

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Alabama vs. UConn Predictions: Huskies to Roll to National Championship Game

The total sits at () for a reason. Both teams can score in bunches, and the double-digit favorite is going up against one of the worst defenses in the country.

Even though Alabama’s defense is better as a whole in March, that is not saying much. They still allow open looks and have trouble defending near the rim. This is a spot, like last week, where UConn can dominate all three levels of offense and smother the opposition for long stretches on defense.

There is no question that Alabama will stick to what has gotten them this far, which is taking a ton of shots. But UConn, based on everything we have seen throughout March Madness, will have stretches of not allowing any points, which will be killer for both the over and Alabama on the spread.

Instead, we will focus on the Huskies’ team total. The shot attempts and efficiency against a porous Alabama unit will be there. Even if the Tide can keep this close, which will require a ton of made threes, UConn will have more chances to respond and hit three throws at the end.

Alabama vs. UConn Best Bet: Huskies Team Total Over 86.5 Points – via DraftKings