Share 
Better Markets says Kalshi did not accurately predict several competitive races in the 2026 midterms. The advocacy group argues the results show election event contracts amount to gambling.
Benjamin Schiffrin, Better Markets’ director of securities policy, makes the case in an analysis published Nov. 4.
“The claim is that if people have money on the line, the wisdom of the crowd will produce an accurate projection,” Schiffrin said. “Yesterday’s midterm results in competitive races prove those claims are baseless.”
Races Better Markets says Kalshi missed
According to Better Markets, Kalshi did not accurately predict the Senate races in South Carolina, Iowa and Kansas. The article says the operator also fared poorly in multiple House races.
The analysis adds that Kalshi missed several close governors’ races, including Texas and Kansas.
Better Markets argues that prediction markets follow polls rather than offering special insight. It describes them as more of a lagging indicator than a leading one.
Call for CFTC action
The article says election betting has real ramifications for democracy.
Better Markets says the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should outlaw event contracts on elections in the future.
More from gamingtoday.com
– Texas Senate Odds 2026: Talarico vs Paxton on Kalshi and Polymarket
– Final Senate Race Odds: Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska and the Seats That Decide Control
– DraftKings, FanDuel Pull Sports Prediction Markets From Utah After Kalshi Charges
—
Source: As reported by Better Markets.
