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Gaming Edge’s TL;DR
Prediction markets are attracting heavier action on climate and weather events, with Kalshi and Polymarket expanding contracts tied to hurricanes, wildfires, temperature records, and other outcomes.
According to The Globe and Mail, the two platforms’ combined monthly global betting volume reached $2 billion in mid-2025 and nearly $24 billion by April. Climate-related markets are a growing part of that activity.
Kalshi users wagered almost $240 million on climate-related markets last year, and the company is on pace to pass $1 billion in that category by the end of 2026.
Polymarket took in $54,000 over three days on when dangerous air quality in New York would improve.
Integrity concerns rise
The expansion is also bringing integrity concerns that will sound familiar to anyone who follows regulated betting. The report cited an allegation that a mystery trader tampered with a Paris weather station in April and netted $21,000 from Polymarket temperature wagers.
During the Los Angeles wildfires, people wagered more than $1.2 million on Polymarket over two weeks, according to Aeon Magazine.
Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe said worsening extreme weather creates more opportunities for this kind of trading.
“The number of extreme weather disasters are on the rise. The impacts on people are on the rise.”
There is also evidence these markets may shape how users think about climate risk. A Columbia University study involving more than 1,000 participants gave each person $20 to place actual bets on climate events. Researcher Moran Cerf said the exercise increased concern about global warming and persuaded some skeptics.
Based on reporting by Danielle Groen for The Globe and Mail.
