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Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., chairman of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act last week, barring members of Congress, their spouses and their dependent children from trading on prediction markets tied to elections, legislation, regulatory decisions and other government actions. The bill has already drawn the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump, and the House Administration Committee has scheduled it for markup.
The bill responds to concerns that lawmakers could use nonpublic information from committee work, briefings and negotiations to profit on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which together cleared a $25.7 billion trading month in April.
“The American people deserve to know their member of Congress is not profiting off insider information,” Steil said in a Committee on House Administration press release. “Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome”.
Which bets are off-limits for lawmakers
The bill bars covered individuals from wagering on the occurrence, nonoccurrence or extent of government policies, political outcomes, legislative developments, regulatory decisions, or any other matter a lawmaker learned of through congressional service. It carves out sports and other unrelated events, aiming to restrict only the bets most prone to abuse rather than ban prediction markets outright.
Violators would face a fine equal to $2,000 or 10% of the transaction’s value, whichever is greater, plus forfeiture of any profit. Lawmakers could not use Members’ Representational Allowances, Senate office accounts, or campaign funds to pay the fine, and those who leave office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
Steil had originally sought to attach prediction-market restrictions to the Stop Insider Trading Act, a broader stock-trading bill his committee advanced in January. That bill has since stalled, prompting him to introduce the prediction-market provisions separately. The bill still faces committee consideration, a House floor vote and Senate approval before it could become law.
Recent insider trading cases have sharpened the debate
Federal prosecutors arrested Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty U.S. Army soldier, on charges that he used confidential information to place an anonymous Polymarket bet — which generated more than $400,000 — that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power before month’s end.
Separately, blockchain analysts in March flagged suspiciously timed bets on prediction markets tied to the Iran conflict, including contracts on a potential U.S. strike and on the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raising questions about advance knowledge, though no formal findings have been reached.
The House Oversight Committee has since opened its own investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket, with Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., citing a pattern of insider trading. The White House separately ordered staff in March not to place wagers on prediction markets.
Senate precedent and prediction market industry support
The House proposal follows the Senate’s April vote, by unanimous consent, to change its internal rules and bar senators and staff from prediction markets, a measure championed by Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. Kalshi and Polymarket both publicly supported that effort, arguing it could strengthen confidence in the industry, and have since said they’ve taken steps to curb insider trading on their platforms.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, introduced a companion House measure shortly after the Senate vote, though Johnson said he wanted consensus first; Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said in May that Steil was already drafting legislation. Steil’s bill does not extend the ban to congressional staff, though some lawmakers have imposed that restriction on their own offices, according to news by Bloomberg Government.
A separate push to regulate prediction markets
The bill arrives alongside the bipartisan Prediction Market Act from Sens. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., which would set regulatory standards, strengthen customer protections and clarify federal oversight of the industry, according to WisPolitics news.
That oversight question is already in court: Kalshi is suing Minnesota to block what would be the first state felony ban on prediction markets, arguing the contracts are derivatives under exclusive Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction. Polymarket, barred from U.S. users since 2022, faces separate scrutiny after the Wall Street Journal reported it paid influencers to post videos of fake successful bets on a fake version of its site.
Why this bill’s odds look different this time
Congress has struggled for years to restrict its own financial activity, and past stock-trading reforms have stalled despite public support.
But Trump’s and Johnson’s backing gives this bill unusual early momentum, and the stack of competing bills shows how fast prediction markets have moved from a niche product to a mainstream policy fight — one where how the industry operates, and who gets to participate, may matter as much as any single regulatory battle underway.
