This has all the characteristics and earmarks of a sloppy circus affair, goofball plays, unconventional touchdowns by the bushel, buffoonery galore. Cue “Yakety Sax” or any cartoon tune for a background theme.
It fits the schedule perfectly as one of the day’s last games, on a national CBS Sports Network feed. The entire nation will be able to bask in the carnival, as a late-night get-out special that’s usually reserved for an exotic show from Oahu.
The best approach is to avoid the point spread, which one island source says can’t be big enough. No, he’s discounting SDSU’s poor defense. Our best sports-betting tactic deals with the total, which promises to get obliterated by all the broken plays and chaos.
So, here’s a look at Hawaii vs. San Diego State odds and a pick in Week 6 of the NCAAF season.
Hawaii vs. San Diego State Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
Here are live odds from around the betting market as college football fans should have plenty of popcorn ready for this game at Snapdragon Stadium.
NCAAF · Sat (10/8) @ 10:38pm ET
|Aztec Stadium, San Diego, California|
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-4, 2-3 Against the Spread)
The visitors own the nation’s worst defense, yielding 0.862 points per play. Which is good timing for the home side, since San Diego State owns one of the bottom-20 offenses in the country.
Hawaii has yielded 227 points in five games, an average of more than 45. Only Charlotte (278) has given up more points to foes, but the 49ers have played six games.
The Aztecs might take care of this game’s total all by itself, as our Oahu source insists will happen.
The Hawaii offense, as difficult as it is to believe, is nearly as poor as its defense. At No. 121, out of 131 FBS programs, the Warriors average only 17.4 points.
Timmy Chang, the former gun-slinging Hawaii quarterback, took over the program’s reins during a tumultuous offseason, and the overhaul he must conduct is massive.
During the drama, many players bolted, including quarterback Chevan Cordeiro to San Jose State. Brayden Schager and Joey Yellen have played in four games apiece. Together, they have one touchdown pass, and six have been picked off.
Dedrick Parson, a 5-foot-8, 205-pound junior who played at Howard, has run 67 times for 266 yards and six TDs, so he carries the load for the offense. Nasjzae Bryant and Tylan Hines have both run for more than 100 yards and each has scored once, so Parson has some relief.
On defense, Chang has guys who once played at Nebraska, Arkansas, Oregon, Oregon State, Georgia, and Iowa State. But Hawaii is in the bottom third of the country, allowing a 40.4% third-down conversion rate, at No. 88.
The Aztecs, however, are worse with a 103rd-ranked 43.2% rate.
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San Diego State Aztecs (2-3, 1-4 ATS)
Let that sink in: San Diego State’s clutch defense, how it has made its name for a long time, is worse than Hawaii’s.
Somehow, the Aztecs allow opponents to score in their red zone at a 108.3% clip, the only defense in the country yielding more than 100%. I have no clue how that is figured, only that it’s pathetic.
SDSU averages 19 points on offense. So it’s a few notches up, at No. 116, from Hawaii. That gross inefficiency cost offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski, a wide receivers coach under Aztecs boss Brady Hoke when he was at Michigan.
After Saturday’s 35-13 loss at Boise State — in which the Broncos scored all of their points in the fourth quarter, and the Aztecs tallied nothing in the second half — Hoke fired Hecklinski.
Jeff Horton was elevated from quarterbacks coach, and former SDSU ace Ryan Lindley was hired to coach the QBs.
Braxton Burmeister must wonder what he got himself into, leaving Virginia Tech for this dumpster fire. In five games, he’s thrown for 263 yards, two TDs, and three interceptions. He’s run –often for his life — for 188 yards and a score.
Let’s return to defense. It’s horrific, allowing 30.5 points to FBS opponents. If that holds, it’ll be only the second time in 13 seasons that the Aztecs will have allowed an average of 30-plus points for an entire campaign.
And Saturday’s top two defenders will be wearing Hawaii uniforms as Super Senior defensive back Malik Hausman, who spent five seasons at Arizona, has a national top-20 three interceptions. Fellow DB Virdel Edwards II, who spent three seasons at Iowa State, has two picks.
Jordan Byrd is the Aztecs star with 285 rushing yards and three TDs. His average punt return of 15.1 yards is 10th best in the nation.
And nobody in the country has punted more times than Aztecs junior Jack Browning’s 37 boots. That pins the tail nicely on this donkey offense.
Hawaii vs. San Diego State Sports Betting Recommendation & Pick
Famed nature author John C. Van Dyke wrote it more than 120 years ago, about the desert, but it aptly describes this game: “The beauty of the ugly.”
You’ll place a hand over your eyes, only to separate some fingers to view the repeated train wrecks. Pick-sixes, a fumble at the 1 returned 99 yards to the other house, a triple reverse? Punt and kickoff returns for TDs.
Hawaii has split its past four with San Diego State and we can see this one mirroring 2018 when Hawaii won, 31-30, in San Diego. Or 49-38 in 2005, or 41-40 in ’02.
These defenses will be sieves, so just be concerned with the total. And have plenty of popcorn ready for the shenanigans.
Our Pick: Over 48 (-110)