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Kalshi does not call elections. Under its published framework, it settles a race when at least four of eight major news organisations, including the Associated Press, call it and none disagrees. That rule decides when midterm markets pay out, and it matters most when a race is close.
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Here is how settlement works, what could delay it, and why you will not see prediction market odds on the main networks’ election night coverage.
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Settlement rules are set by each platform and can change. Read the contract terms for any market you follow. For live odds, see our 2026 midterm elections predictions hub.
The Short Answer
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Who decides a race for settlement on Kalshi? | Not Kalshi. At least four of eight major news organisations, including the AP, must call the race |
| What if one disagrees? | The condition is that none disagrees, so a dissenting call could delay settlement |
| Does a television projection settle a market? | Not by itself |
| Do all platforms use the same rule? | No. Each platform publishes its own resolution rules for each market |
Kalshi’s Framework
In a transparency announcement on 6 October, Kalshi said its election settlement framework would rely on at least four of eight major news organisations calling a race, with none disagreeing, according to a summary by DeFi Rate. Kalshi says it does not make the call itself.
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The rule is meant to avoid a single source deciding a result. It also means a market can stay open after one network has projected a winner, because the others may not yet have agreed.
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Control of the Senate
Kalshi’s earlier election guide described the Senate control market as settling on a consensus of media organisations about which party controls the chamber. If there is no consensus, it falls back to the party of the Senate president pro tempore on 1 February 2027. Check the current contract terms, because platforms update them.
House and other markets
House control, individual races, seat counts and margin markets each have their own rules. Do not assume the Senate rule applies to all of them.
What Could Delay Settlement
| Place | Why it may be slow |
|---|---|
| Maine | Ranked-choice voting. If no candidate wins a majority in the first count, ballots are retabulated centrally, which can add days |
| Alaska | Ranked-choice voting. The tabulation is scheduled for 18 November |
| Georgia | A runoff is scheduled for 1 December if no candidate wins a majority |
| Close races anywhere | Outstanding mail ballots, provisional ballots and recounts |
A Senate that comes down to Maine or Alaska could therefore stay unsettled well past election night. See our politics prediction market senate odds guide for how close those races are.
Settlement Is Not an Election Call
A market resolves by its contract rules. An election is decided by counted ballots and state certification. Those timelines can differ.
- A projection is not a result. Networks and the AP project winners before final counts.
- A market price is not a projection. Prices can move sharply on partial results.
- Certification takes longer than a call. Final results are not official until states certify.
The University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public has warned that sharp swings can be misread as evidence of something they are not. Our guide to trusting election odds covers how to read them.
Why TV Will Not Show the Odds
Kalshi and Polymarket have signed media deals ahead of the midterms, and Bloomberg’s analysis of data from the analytics site Dune puts trading on the midterms at around $1.5 billion. But the main networks are keeping the odds off their election night coverage, according to Bloomberg’s reporting.
- CNN has a relationship with Kalshi, but its odds will not appear on its “Magic Wall” or be referenced on air during election night coverage. It prefers to focus on the results as they come in.
- CBS News said its Kalshi agreement excludes any political coverage.
Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, provides prediction market data to clients as part of its wider offering.
That means the odds you see on election night will mostly come from the platforms, aggregators and social media, not from the networks’ own graphics.
What to Expect on Tuesday Night
- Fast moves. Prices are likely to jump as polls close, and some moves will reverse.
- Heavy trading. CNN’s reporting expected volume to rise sharply on Election Day.
- Open markets after projections. A race can be projected before a market settles.
- Slow counts. Maine, Alaska and Georgia are the ones to watch.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Kalshi settle election markets?
It relies on at least four of eight major news organisations, including the Associated Press, calling a race with none disagreeing. Kalshi says it does not call elections itself.
Does a network projection settle a prediction market?
Not on its own. Each market resolves by its contract rules, which may require several sources to agree.
How does Polymarket settle election markets?
It has its own resolution rules for each market. Read them in the market description before relying on them.
Will CNN or CBS show prediction market odds on election night?
According to Bloomberg, no. CNN says odds will not appear on its Magic Wall or be mentioned on air, and CBS says its Kalshi agreement excludes political coverage.
When will the Senate markets settle?
That depends on the results. If control is decided on election night and the required organisations agree, settlement can follow quickly. If Maine, Alaska or Georgia are close, it could take days or weeks.
What is the difference between a call and certification?
A call is a news organisation’s projection of the winner. Certification is the official confirmation of results by the state, which comes later.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. You can lose your entire stake, and most people who trade on prediction markets lose money. Platforms are typically 18+ and are not available in all states, and some states prohibit betting on elections. Settlement rules vary by platform and market and can change. Read the contract terms before relying on any of them. This article is informational and is not financial, legal or voting advice. GamingToday does not endorse any candidate or party. If gambling or trading stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support.
