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Kalshi traded more than $5 billion in notional volume on both Saturday and Sunday. It is the first time the prediction market has done so on consecutive days, according to TradingView, which carried a FinanceMagnates.com report.
Kalshi’s daily data files showed $5.33 billion on Saturday and $5.36 billion on Sunday. Both topped the previous record of $5.30 billion.
Combos drive the record volume
Combos, Kalshi’s multi-leg contracts that work like a parlay, made up 75.6% of Saturday’s volume and 74.6% of Sunday’s. One cross-category combo series accounted for $3.92 billion on Saturday and $3.23 billion on Sunday. A second combo series rose to $763 million on Sunday from $110 million a day earlier.
Notional volume values every contract at its full $1 payout rather than the price paid. For 85% of Saturday’s combo volume and 79% of Sunday’s, no contract in the market traded above 5 cents that day, according to FinanceMagnates.com’s count from Kalshi’s files.
Outside combos, 15-minute bitcoin contracts were the largest series on both days, at $259 million and $282 million. College football game markets drew $258 million on Saturday. NFL game markets drew $241 million on Sunday.
In July, combos were 36% of contracts traded on Kalshi. They had an average implied probability of 9%, compared with 43% for other contracts, according to a Bloomberg analysis cited in the report.
Breon Corcoran questioned in October “what such volume records are worth,” noting that “a $1 parlay can carry a notional value in the thousands.”
How the records compare
Kalshi first passed $1 billion in a single day in June, when World Cup markets lifted a Sunday to $1.236 billion. FinanceMagnates.com calculated that Sunday’s $5.36 billion was about 4.3 times that mark.
DeFi Rate reported Kalshi’s first $3 billion day on September 20. Bitcoin.com News counted $3.96 billion on October 11.
Combined monthly taker volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket’s US venue reached $172.4 billion in the third quarter. That compares with $98.5 billion in the second quarter, according to FM Intelligence calculations.
AGA says combos are sports parlays
The American Gaming Association filed an amicus brief with a federal appeals court arguing that Kalshi’s combos are ordinary sports parlays. The brief was filed in Kalshi’s appeal against New York at the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.
The AGA said Kalshi offers “garden-variety sports bets, such as point spreads, proposition bets, and parlays.” Citing Event Horizon data, it said parlays make up two-thirds of Kalshi’s volume. It added that 55% of them are long shots with 10 or more legs.
The AGA also estimated that users under 21 had traded $9.5 billion on Kalshi by November 2. Kalshi accepts traders from age 18, while New York bars sports betting under 21. A CNN analysis in August put trading by 18- to 20-year-olds on Kalshi at $5.4 billion for the year to that point.
New York court fight
Kalshi appealed after a federal judge in July declined to stop New York from enforcing its gambling law. The Second Circuit refused Kalshi an injunction pending appeal on November 3.
In a separate lawsuit, New York is seeking at least $36 billion from Kalshi.
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Source: As reported by TradingView.
