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Gaming Edge: PitchBook projects Kalshi will generate $1.2 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and stock-based compensation in 2026. Its research also models lower earnings and valuations if Kalshi and Polymarket lose a portion of their U.S.-traded sports contracts.
Kalshi and Polymarket’s 2026 Earnings Projections
PitchBook’s new research estimates Kalshi’s 2026 gross revenue at $3.7 billion, according to InGame’s account of the report.
For Polymarket, PitchBook projects $842 million in gross revenue across its U.S. and global operations, $526.9 million in net revenue and $34.9 million in adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation.
The stock-based compensation exclusion matters to the earnings figures: both companies’ projected adjusted EBITDA is calculated before that expense.
Research Puts Kalshi’s Valuation at $42.3 Billion
PitchBook estimates Kalshi should currently be valued at $42.3 billion and Polymarket at $20.6 billion.
“We do not take this magnitude of valuation increase lightly but believe the acceleration in trading volume warrants it,” the report said, as quoted by InGame.
Its longer-term projections put Kalshi’s 2028 gross revenue at $8.5 billion, net revenue at $6.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation at $3 billion.
For Polymarket, the corresponding 2028 estimates are $3.2 billion in gross revenue, $2.3 billion in net revenue and $624.3 million in adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation.
U.S. Sports Contracts Shape the Downside Scenario
The research considers potential Supreme Court risk to U.S. sports event contracts and models a scenario in which the companies lose a quarter of their U.S.-traded sports contracts.
Under that scenario, PitchBook projects Kalshi’s 2028 net revenue at $5.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA excluding stock-based compensation at $1.6 billion. Its estimated valuation would fall to $25 billion, while Polymarket’s would fall to $14.6 billion.
More from gamingtoday.com – Pentagon Bars Trading on Prediction Markets Using Non-Public Information – Kalshi CEO Says Sports Contract Dispute Could Reach Supreme Court – Texas Senate Odds 2026: Talarico vs Paxton on Kalshi and Polymarket
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Source: As reported by InGame.
