As Mexico and Poland clash in Group C in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, El Tri is priced as short favorites, offered at +175 odds on the three-way line at FanDuel. Here we look at Mexico vs. Poland odds, props, and predictions.
Poland has the narrow overall edge on Mexico in this series and on the biggest stage. They’ve jousted nine times, all knotted at 4-3-2, according to WorldFootball.net. The Poles own the most-impressive triumph, at the 1978 World Cup in Argentina. However, in this century, the Mexicans have a 1-0-2 edge.
While the Mexican side is relatively unknown, in striker Robert Lewandowski the Poles boast of one of the world’s most famous footballers. In three-way betting odds, they’re nearly even in many shops. The universal total of 2 goals, however, is a very cagey figure, as 2.5 is most common in early World Cup betting.
Of all the matches in the first few days of the tournament, this one is key since Argentina is expected to dominate Group C.
Mexico vs. Poland World Cup Odds
Here are odds from FanDuel as of Thursday, Nov. 17. The draw is priced at +200. Remember, a bet on either team is a loss in the event of a tie. Also, it’s always recommended to shop around various sportsbook apps for the best bonuses and odds for your plays.
SOCCER · Tue (11/22) @ 8:00 am ET
|Stadium 974, Ras Abu Aboud, QA|
In Las Vegas, the Westgate SuperBook usually excels in offering beneficial odds on the beautiful game. For instance, in three-way wagering (select Team A, Team B or Draw), it has both Poland and Mexico at +170, Draw at +225. The SuperBook has Under 2, what we’ve honed in on, at +120. It always pays to shop.
For a free bar bet, let conversation casually come around to the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup, maybe with a nugget or two from a past tournament. Then, quietly slip in, ‘Do you know why they called it Stadium 974 in Doha?’ (It was constructed with 974 recycled shipping containers and will be destroyed, in Doha, after the tournament; the first temporary venue in World Cup history)
Poland vs. Mexico World Cup History
The World Cup history between Orły (the Eagles) and El Tri is encompassed in a single match, June 10, 1978, a Saturday inside Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Argentina. Zbigniew Boniek scored in the 43rd minute for Poland, but Victor Rangel tied it early in the second half. Just four minutes later, Kazimierz Deyna gave the Poles the lead for good. Boniek secured the 3-1 victory by finding the back of the net in the 84th minute.
Poland Injuries, Roster & Betting News
In eight World Cup appearances, the Poles have two third-place finishes on their résumé, in 1982 and ’74. They enter the match very fit.
Keeper Wojciech Szczęsny had a hamstring issue in September which, fortunately, turned out to be minor. He has been outstanding for Juventus in Italy’s Serie A. In fact, he leads the Big Five (Italy, England, Spain, Germany and France) with a 0.35 goals-against 90-minute average. He has six clean sheets in his past nine starts.
The danger man of this entire match is Lewandowski, the 34-year-old striker extraordinaire who poked in 110 goals, assisting on 14 others, over a three-season stretch for Barcelona through 2021-22. Jakub Kaminski, a 20-year-old Polish winger, told Reuters of Lewandowski’s importance to the side, “He’s our leader and I hope he [keeps] in good shape during the World Cup.”
Excessive attention on Lewandowski could free up Karol Swiderski and Adam Buksa, both of who tallied five goals in qualifying.
Five of Poland’s past eight matches have resulted in two or fewer goals being scored. At the South Point sportsbook in Vegas, Poland opened at 125-to-1 odds to win the tournament, but that’s been edged up to 150-1. Lewandowski is a 50-to01 shot, at the Westgate SuperBook, to win the Golden Boot.
Who will be top goalscorer in Qatar: Odds to win 2022 Golden Boot
Mexico Injuries, Roster & Betting News
El Tri has played in 16 World Cups, reaching the quarterfinals twice, in 1986 and ’70. This iteration is long on no-name figures, with a strong presence at the key position—keeper.
Guillermo Ocho’s story can be told in three parts. The good: in 10 qualifiers, he recorded six clean sheets. The bad: two of those were scoreless draws. The ugly: he was between the posts for the consecutive road losses to the US (2-0) and Canada (2-1).
In 17 matches in all competitions this year, only two players have produced more than two goals, Alexis Vegas (with four) and Raúl Jiménez (three). The latter has played the past five seasons for Wolves in the England Premier League, where he busted out for 30 total goals as a freshman and sophomore. Jiménez had sustained a groin injury with Wolves that sidelined him since late August, but apparently he was healthy enough to justify coach Gerardo “Tata” Martino including him on his 26-man Qatar 2022 roster.
If Jiménez is ineffective, look out for Henry Martin, the Club América striker who is the lone current Liga Mx Apertura figure to average a goals-plus-assists average, per 90 minutes, greater than 1 — at 1.19. Martin started slow, not scoring in four matches, and has only three goals and an assist in his past eight games. But the Pocket Rocket (he isn’t even 5-feet-5) can turn it on in a flash. In their 16 qualifiers, 10 of Mexico’s matches ended with two goals or fewer.
Poland vs. Mexico Prediction: Under 2 +120
The past four matches between these two, all friendlies, have been 1-0 (Mexico victory in 2017 in Gdańsk), 1-1 in ’11, 1-1 in ’05, and 0-0, in Oakland of all neutral venues, in 1993. Mexico has some capable troublemakers, Poland excels on defense. Voila.
All 32 teams’ futures: 2022 World Cup odds
Poland vs. Mexico Props
We believe the typical three-way betting in futbol originates in the devil’s workshop, so the vast majority of the time that is something to treat with extreme caution. In the particular case of Poland vs. Mexico, with so much at stake and defenses figuring to be ratcheted high, we favor a Draw, +225, for a half-unit, for a decent return; avoid anything here at less than a 2-to-1 return.
Our main action is Under 2, so a 1-1 final is fine. Anything other than a loss is a positive in sports betting. And if it’s nil-nil, we’ll score those dividends.
However, we also recommend unique half-unit wagers, if you can access them, on a 0-0 final at around +635 and 1-1 at +460. That will enhance our visions, and thicken our wallets, of this being a low-scoring draw, not unusual for World Cup openers in which footballers need to feel out an atypical foe in an exotic arena, many sides playing tight for fear of defeat.
Finally, it only comes around every four years, so let’s take some extra half-unit flyers on Lewandowski (+135 at DraftKings) and Martin (+230) to score a goal anytime.
Also: World Cup 2022 Predictions | Group odds
Mexico vs. Poland Broadcast Info
Day: Tuesday, Nov. 22
Time: 11 a.m. ET
Location: Stadium 974, Doha, Qatar
Where to Watch: FOX, Telemundo, fubo TV, DirecTV stream, Peacock Premium, Vidgo, Sling Blue
Find a place to bet: Best World Cup sportsbook promos and bonuses at BetRivers