MLB Home Run Props: Best HR Picks for Friday, April 19

Happy Friday, and welcome back to another great day of baseball. We have a terrific 15-game slate tonight, which gives bettors plenty of opportunities to place an anytime home run bet. Here, we will break down our favorite MLB home run props.

With so many games to pick from, finding an anytime home run pick can be tricky. Luckily, we have poured through the data and come up with three home run predictions for a full slate of action.

Let’s take a look at our best MLB home run prop bets for Friday, April 19.

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MLB Home Run Props – April 19

Marcus Semien ()

The defending World Series champions will look to build their lead atop the AL West with a tough road series against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves will send out Chris Sale tonight to get the series opening start.

Sale has been solid through three starts, with a 10.19 K/9 and allowing the lowest hard hit and barrel rates since 2017. However, he did get roughed up in his last start, as the Miami Marlins put up five runs. His xERA and xFIP also point towards regression, and that is where a red-hot Marcus Semien can take advantage. 

Semien is not hitting the ball as hard as he usually has throughout his career, but he still ranks in the top 80% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA, and Sweet-Spot%. Sale’s fastball has been largely ineffective this season, and Semien has always crushed that pitch. 

Expect Semien to stay hot tonight and cash his anytime home run prop. 

Aaron Judge ()

It was rare to find Aaron Judge’s home run prop odds at 2/1 or above over the last two seasons. However, a sluggish start has increased his daily odds of hitting one out, which should be enough reason to take a chance on him tonight. 

Despite a .183 BA and high strikeout rate, Judge still has a 110 wRC+ and ranks in the top 75% of the league in Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. He is also in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate has been up to 52.5% over his last seven games. 

Judge has a favorable matchup tonight against Tyler Alexander and the Tampa Bay Rays. Although Alexander is due for some slight positive regression, his HR/9 is horrendous, at 2.93, and he allows a 10% barrel rate. 

The Rays’ bullpen has not been much better. They rank last in ERA (6.00) and have a 7.4% barrel rate. When he makes contact, Judge is still crushing the ball, and this Rays’ pitching staff has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard.

Mookie Betts ()

Mookie Betts has cooled off a bit since his extremely impressive start to the season. However, he still has some of the best offensive numbers in the league. 

He enters tonight with a slash of .369/.470/.667, a 211 wRC+, and a career-high in ISO (.298) and OPS (1.137). Although his hard-hit and barrel rates are not quite up to his 2018 MVP status, he still ranks above league average in both categories, including ranking in the 83rd percentile in Hard-Hit rate. 

The Mets have been playing some excellent baseball lately, but tonight’s starter, Sean Manaea, has trouble with the long ball, especially against Betts. In 29 ABs, Betts has three home runs against the southpaw, and Manaea enters this matchup with a 13.2% barrel rate. 

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