MLB Player Prop Bets: Best Props & Home Run Picks for Friday, April 12

Happy Friday, and welcome back to another terrific day of baseball. There is a full 15-game slate to watch, enjoy, and place a few bets on. If you need help finding a baseball winner today, we have got you covered, as we will break down our three favorite MLB player prop bets, including our best anytime home run pick.

Although the MLB season is only a few weeks old, our baseball prop series is off to a great start. With so many games on the schedule, there are hundreds of available player prop markets, which can make finding a winner challenging. Luckily, we have dove into the data for you to find the best MLB props of the day.

Let’s take a look at our best MLB picks for Friday, April 12.

Read More: 2024 World Series Odds | MLB Odds | MLB Win Totals

MLB Player Prop Bets: April 12

Bryce Harper Over Total Bases

Bryce Harper is off to a sluggish start in 2024. Although he had a three-home run performance not too long ago, he has not done much hitting since then. Entering tonight, Harper has a slash of .196/.288/.435 with a wRC+ of 88.

He has only nine hits in 12 games this season, but he has a favorable matchup tonight against Pirates’ starter Bailey Falter. The former Phillie has two starts under his belt this season, and neither was very good. His ERA sits at 5.40, and he is striking out less than three batters per nine innings.

Falter has never been a big strikeout guy, but he does not generate many whiffs or chases, and he is giving up hard enough contact to scare me against this Phillies lineup. Although lefty-lefty matchups typically favor the pitcher, Harper has always hit Southpaws well, and despite his struggles, has a 101 wRC+ in 21 ABs against left-handed pitching.

Even if Falter has a strong start, I would not expect him to stay in the game long. Luckily, Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranks 20th in hard-hit rate and has been pitching well above its true talent level to start the year.

Expect Harper to get back on track tonight and go over his total bases prop.

Tanner Houck Under

The last time we took the under on a pitcher’s strikeout prop, they recorded a career-high. That is usually enough to scare me off, but this is a case of sportsbooks overrating Tanner Houck’s early hot start.

Boston’s pitching staff is starting to crash back down to earth, but Houck could really be in for some regression tonight. His last game came against the Angels, and he dominated, striking out seven in six shutout innings.

He has not allowed a run all season, and his xERA and xFIP point toward a strong season projection. However, he still has some issues with his command and is giving up the hardest contact of his career. 

Eventually, one of these teams will jump on him, and it would not shock us if it is the improving Angels lineup that is coming off a bad day with Houck on the mound in his last start. Los Angeles’ offense stinks (besides Mike Trout), but they have played much better lately, ranking around league average in most categories. 

This is an excellent spot to back the Angels lineup against a fleeting Red Sox pitching staff. It may also be worth it to take a peek at Angels’ moneyline (), but our official player prop pick is the under on Houck’s strikeout total.

MLB Player Props: Best Anytime Home Run Pick

Ronald Acuna Jr. ()

The Braves are coming off a bad loss to the Mets yesterday and have fallen to 7-4 on the season. Pitching seems to be a concern, but offensively, Atlanta is as good as any team in baseball. They rank first in ISO (.198), SLG (.500), wOBA (.380), wRC+ (135), and hard hit rate (44.6%). 

When you have some of the best hitters at the top of the lineup sheet, it is easy to see why and how the Braves score so many runs. The best player in the lineup, Ronald Acuna Jr., is off to a slow start but still hits the ball hard. 

Acuna is still looking for his first home run of the season. He enters tonight with a .233/.353/.279 slash with an 86 wRC+. He is also striking out at a high clip but still ranks above average in chase rate. 

Simply put, Acuna is too good of a hitter to continue struggling for too long. He will face a bad Miami pitching staff tonight, including starter Trevor Rogers. In his eight career ABs against Rogers, Acuna is batting .500, with a home run and two doubles. 

Rogers has done a better job at limiting hard contact this season, but he also is not generating as many whiffs, and his fastball velocity continues to dip. 

Take Acuna to wake up his bat tonight and hit his first home run of the season. 

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