The first two weeks of the 2022 NFL season have provided a number of memorable moments. While Week 1 was loaded with underdog winners, Week 2 was full of epic comebacks. Each of the Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals clawed their way to victory after stumbling early. Just as we’re catching our breath, point spreads have opened for NFL Week 3 and our work on betting tips and strategies starts again.
At the beginning of the season, I outlined some of my favorite strategies for betting NFL games. Using a few of those concepts, let’s take a look at some bets for NFL Week 3.
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NFL Week 3 Betting Picks
San Francisco 49ERS (-1) vs. Denver BRONCOS
The Denver Broncos clown show continued in Week 2 against the Houston Texans. Both offenses struggled, and the Broncos waited until the fourth quarter before finally crossing the goal line. Nathaniel Hackett and his questionable coaching decisions tried once again to lose the game for the Broncos. Things were so bad at Mile High Stadium, the Broncos crowd got involved. Fans started chanting the game clock countdown rather than face another delay-of-game penalty.
The 49ers on the other hand are back on track. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and their offense is expected to have TE George Kittle back for NFL Week 3. A season-ending injury to Trey Lance in the first quarter against the Seahawks was a big shock. And while that may have bettors looking elsewhere, the 49ers are better with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. He took this team to the Super Bowl two years ago!
Russell Wilson looked miserable in Denver, and the Broncos are playing uninspired football. Add a few more bonehead play calls from Nathaniel Hackett and I think the 49ers win this one going away.
The moneyline is moving so jump on it fast. I’d bet the 49ers up to – 3.
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Green Bay PACKERS (+3) vs. Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS
NFL Week 3 has a number of marquee games, but perhaps none bigger than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
The Bucs offensive line is crushed with injuries, and Brady has been noticeably rushed in the pocket. To make matters worse, his number one receiving target, Mike Evans, has been suspended and will miss Sunday’s matchup against the Packers. With Evans out, and WR Chris Godwin and Julio Jones dealing with injuries, things are dire on offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Tampa Bay defense has looked great. They lead the NFL with only 13 points allowed through their first two games. Neither Dak Prescott nor Jameis Winston was 100% healthy in those games, so the Bucs defense will be tested against the Packers. A healthy Aaron Rodgers is a different beast altogether.
The Packers were rusty out the gate with a Week 1 loss to Minnesota, but got back on track against the Bears on Sunday Night Football. Rodgers’ favorite target Allen Lazard returned from injury and contributed with a touchdown catch, and the other receivers looked much more comfortable across the board. Rodgers was able to spread the ball around, as eight receivers made catches. Add the running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon rushing for almost 200 yards combined, and you’ve got an offense that’s starting to click.
Rodgers and his ability to scramble outside the pocket will be the difference here. He’s still mobile enough to extend plays and get the ball downfield. Brady does not have the same luxury, and the Packers defense should keep the pressure on the Bucs’ depleted front line.
I bet this at +3, and the line has since moved to +2.5. I think the Packers win outright, but it’s worth waiting to see if this line gets back to the key number +3.
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NFL Week 3 Best Under Bet
Pittsburgh STEELERS vs. Cleveland BROWNS: Under 38.5
We’ve been spoiled with back-to-back bangers on Thursday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills dethroned the Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Then, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs held off Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a 27-24 thriller in Week 2.
We aren’t so lucky this week. Thursday Night Football between the Steelers and the Browns looks to be a classic rock fight.
Both the Steelers and the Browns are struggling to move the ball, as Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett aren’t exactly known for lighting it up offensively. We’re looking at a defensive matchup between two run-heavy teams that will shorten this contest considerably. And after two tough losses, neither team should feel all that motivated heading into this one.
Thursday Night Football Unders have been extremely profitable. Since the start of last season, the Under has gone 13-5 on Thursday nights.
Don’t overthink this one. Take the Under.