Welcome to the biggest week on the PGA Tour schedule. With the action we’ve had in this wraparound season, that’s saying a lot as the Tour winds down to just two events remaining in the FedEx Cup chase.
Don’t believe us that this is the biggest week?
Well, just look at the updated FedEx Cup standings right now. After last week’s first playoff event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Scottie Scheffler has now been caught and passed by Will Zalatoris for the No. 1 spot.
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That’s what happens when one guy wins the tournament (Zalatoris) and collects the quadrupled points of 2,000 and the other guy (Scheffler) misses the cut. When the dust settled, Zalatoris had a 135-point lead over Scheffler in the points race with Cam Smith in third about 1,000 points back.
So as we move forward it’s vital to know there’s so much more to look forward to over the final two weeks. The second event, the BMW Championship being held at Wilmington Country Club’s South Course in Wilmington, Delaware, will also have quadruple points on the line.
And there’s more. The top 70 players who advanced to this week aren’t only playing for points and boatloads of cash this week…they are playing for strokes when the Tour Championship starts next week.
Confused? Well, don’t be. We’re going to explain it as quickly and painlessly as possible.
After this week’s final putt drops, the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will head to the Tour Championship next week in Atlanta at East Lake Golf Club. And while it may seem like it will be a tournament like the rest of the year, it’s not.
Heading to the first tee in the finale, the FedEx Cup leader will start the tournament at 10-under-par. The player in second place will be at -8 while the player sitting in third will be at -6. It goes on and on down the list with the final five guys who made the top 30 starting out at even par.
Now you may be asking why they do this, and we can’t come up with a good answer. But before we get to the finale we need to check out this week’s top 70 players and come up with a winner or two as well as a couple of prop bet plays.
There’s one more note of why this week’s BMW is such an important tournament: The last two Tour Championships were won by the player who started the event at 10-under-par. Patrick Cantlay won the title last year and Dustin Johnson won it in 2020.
The most recent player to come from off the pace to win came in 2019 when Rory McIlroy put on a charge to win. He started the event at five-under-par, but rallied for the victory despite starting five shots behind FedEx Cup points leader Justin Thomas.
So playing your best this week to move into a spot to be as many strokes under par as possible heading into the Tour Championship is crucial.
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Odds To Win The BMW Championship (DraftKings)
As always, shop around the sports betting industry for the best odds on your plays.
There’s Hot And Then There’s Tony Finau
Granted, he only finished T-5 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but that was good enough to move Tony Finau up to No. 5 in the FedEx Cup rankings. And that’s coming off back-to-back victories.
Lately, even when he doesn’t win he seems to be in the hunt with a chance to pick up the victory. He’s +1400 this week (with Rory McIlroy the top choice at +1000) and has a shot to move up a little more as the field tries to keep climbing the ladder.
If there’s one golfer right now who has the upper hand against the rest of the field, it’s Finau. We’re going to keep riding him through the playoffs. When you’re hot, you’re hot. And then there’s Finau who is sizzling despite not winning last week.
Can Zalatoris Go Back-To-Back?
This is one of those questions that will prove to be quite the dilemma.
There’s no doubt Zalatoris, +1400 this week after his victory last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, had waited a long time for that first PGA Tour win. He had four runnerup finishes this year alone before winning in a playoff last week over Sepp Straka.
And he won without his “A” game or even his “B” game. He hit it all over the course–and sometimes off the course–on Sunday but still putted well enough to pull out the victory.
In the playoff, he had to take penalty strokes on two holes but still came away with the win. Now, did the victory and the stress that came with having to go to a playoff take too much out of him to go back-to-back? Or does this lift him up emotionally like Scheffler earlier in the year when he won four of six starts to launch his career into the stratosphere?
We’re going with the second option for the simple fact he now knows he can win. Doubt is now gone and the sky is the limit. Plus, now that he’s the FedEx Cup points leader, there’s a much bigger payday possible for him with just two events left. We like his odds.
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Around The Prop Scene
We’re going with a three-player matchup this week, and we’re basing our pick purely on experience. We like Adam Scott (+180) against Joo-Hyung Kim and Aaron Wise, also both at +180.
The reasoning is simple as Scott has been here before, and he’s also coming off a T-4 at last week’s FedEx playoff opener. The second one we like is that there will be a playoff at +300. Back-to-back weeks with a playoff in the playoffs?