UFC 282 Odds & Props: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Fight for Vacant Light Heavyweight Title in Vegas

Just when UFC fans and bettors thought they were going to see a Jiri Prochazka vs. Glover Teixeira rematch in December, Prochazka suffers a career-altering shoulder injury, vacates the title, and the fight was ultimately scrapped.

The new headliner may not fascinate casual fans, but it should be just as entertaining, however, as former champion Jan Blachowicz and No. 3 contender Magomed Ankalaev will fight for the vacant Light Heavyweight Championship at UFC 282 in the promotion’s final pay-per-view (PPV) event of 2022.

Although this card has taken a major blow in terms of star power, it’s still deep with young contenders. The revamped event takes place on Dec. 10 at the T-Mobile Arena. There’s a lot to unpack for this PPV event, so we’re laying out the UFC 282 odds, props, and picks to help bettors know how to wager on this Vegas fight card.

UFC 282 Main Event Odds: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev

Oddsmakers favor Ankalaev — priced between -265 and -300 on the moneyline — over Blachowicz, whose odds are between +200 and +240. The Russian contender has been the more popular betting option for early bettors, having opened as short as -210 at DraftKings.

UFC 282 Betting Card

Preceding the headliner is a lightweight bout between Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (between -240 and -275) and Jared “Flash” Gordon (between +190 and +210). Also on the main card is a middleweight bout between Darren Till (between +140 and +165) and Dricus Du Plessis (between -180 and -210).

The fight with the tightest odds is an early preliminary featherweight bout between Erik Silva and TJ Brown (both -110). The largest underdog on the card is middleweight fighter Dalcha Lungiambula (between +230 and +250), who battles Edmen Shahbazyan (between -280 and -335) in the prelims.

UFC 282 Event Info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022
• Start Time: Prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET | Main Card at 10:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+ or PPV

Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Betting Preview

Blachowicz

The Pole (29-9 MMA, 12-6 UFC) is a sizable underdog in the UFC 282 odds, though that shouldn’t faze him nor his supporters, as he’s surprisingly performed better when tagged with plus-money odds.

Blachowicz has been the underdog in 12 of his 18 UFC fights and he’s 10-2 as the underdog, including nine straight victories. As the favorite, he’s 6-4. His staggering list of upsets includes wins over the likes of Luke Rockhold (+215), Corey Anderson (+190), Dominick Reyes (+205), Israel Adesanya (+200), and Aleksandar Rakic (+170).

A former KSW Light Heavyweight Champion, the 30-year-old struggled in his early UFC career, losing four of his first five bouts. However, he then went on a tear in the division, winning nine of his next 10 outings, which included a title-clinching victory over Reyes and a title defense over Adesanya.

Blachowicz enjoyed his title reign for about 13 months until Glover Teixeira snatched it from him at UFC 267 in Oct. 2021. But fast forward to Dec. 10 and he’ll get a crack at his second championship when he faces Ankalaev.

Ankalaev

Teixeira turned down a vacant title fight against Ankalaev at UFC 282, and we don’t blame him. The 30-year-old Russian (17-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) has opened and closed as the betting chalk in all 10 of his UFC appearances and has never laid odds tighter than -205.

He followed his losing UFC debut up with nine straight wins, which is the second-longest win streak in 205-pound history. His last three wins have all come against either former or currently ranked opponents in Volkan Oezdemir, Anthony Smith, and Thiago Santos.

The first-time challenger has yet to truly knock out a formidable opponent. Ankalaev knocked out a legitimately injured Santos, and his early knockouts came against ordinary fighters. Blachowicz is clearly the Russian’s toughest test thus far, so a knockout here would show us that Ankalaev is for real.

How Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Might Play Out

Blachowicz and Ankalaev both profile as striker-wrestlers, except that the former has edges in two areas: grappling and one-punch knockout power.

The Pole is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has nine wins by submission compared to zero for his opponent. His iconic “Polish Power” makes him the superior fighter if the two were to exchange in a slugfest.

That being said, Ankalaev is favored for many strong reasons. He’s the better defensive fighter both on the feet and on the mat. He defends against 60% of significant strikes (54% for Blachowicz) and 86% of takedowns (66% for Blachowicz).

Blachowicz’s chances at victory may depend on his power punching. While that approach would normally bode well against most fighters, it may be rendered ineffective against Ankalaev, who has never been knocked out in his MMA career.

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Props

There are a ton of different prop bets that bettors can have fun with. Here are the best odds for various Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev props around the industry:

Method of Victory

Blachowicz by submission (+1200, Unibet)
Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ (+575, Unibet)
Blachowicz by decision (+650, DraftKings)
Ankalaev by submission (+1500, FanDuel)
Ankalaev by KO/TKO/DQ (+140, Unibet)
Ankalaev by decision (+240, DraftKings)

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Total Rounds

3.5 (Over +102, BetRivers; Under -125, DraftKings)

Note: 2:30 minute mark of each round indicates the ‘half-round’ for Under/Over bets. For example, if you bet on Over 3.5 rounds, the fight would have to exceed the 2:30 minute mark of the fourth round for you to win.

Alternative Total Rounds

0.5 (O -1600, DraftKings; U +700, DraftKings)
1.5 (O -275, BetMGM; U +205, Caesars)
2.5 (O -138, FanDuel; U +115, BetMGM)
4.5 (O +135, BetMGM; U -160, Caesars)

Will Fight Go the Distance?

Yes (+150, DraftKings)
No (-186, FanDuel)

How Fight Will End

Submission (+750, FanDuel)
KO/TKO/DQ (-135, FanDuel)
Decision (+150, DraftKings)

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UFC 282 Main Card Odds

Here’s the main card lineup for UFC 282, along with each fighter’s corresponding moneyline odds at DraftKings (as of Wednesday evening, Dec. 7):

Light Heavyweight Title Bout: Jan Blachowicz (+235) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-280)
Lightweight Bout: Paddy Pimblett (-250) vs. Jared Gordon (+210)
Welterweight Bout: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-180) vs. Alex Morono (+155)
Middleweight Bout: Darren Till (+155) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-180)
Featherweight Bout: Bryce Mitchell (+125) vs. Ilia Topuria (-145)

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