The Wolverines have won five of the past six between these two in Ann Arbor, and all of them would have gone over this total.
In November 2010, the goofiest of their games nearly covered this in the extra frames alone. Tied 45-45 at the end of regulation, an errant 2-point toss by the Illini secured the 67-65 triple-overtime triumph for Michigan.
Illinois was caught napping at home last weekend, against Purdue, as it maybe pondered what lay ahead here. We’re banking on that, plus the Wolverines’ pedigree, to keep the Illini on Michigan’s minds and not what awaits it next week in Columbus, Ohio.
Here’s a look at Illinois vs. Michigan odds and a pick in Week 12 of the NCAA football season.
Illinois vs. Michigan Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline
Here are live odds from around the betting market for Illinois vs. Michigan.
NCAAF · Sat (11/19) @ 12:00pm ET
|Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan|
Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3, 6-4 ATS)
Chase Brown leads the nation in rushes and rushing yards, respectively, at 280 and 1,442. His 98-yard effort in last week’s home defeat to Purdue, however, was his first of the season in double digits.
And in their past three games, the Wolverines have become incredibly stingy on the ground, yielding a mere 42 yards per game. That’s tops in the country.
Quarterback Tommy Devito has had a fine season, but against those Boilers he had his worst game, when attempting at least 20 throws; he went 18-for-32, for 201 yards and a touchdown, and he threw his first pick in seven games.
And the Wolverines let opposing quarterbacks complete only 52 percent of their attempts, third-lowest in the game. Plus, Devito smacks into a Michigan defense that allows only 5.3 yards per pass attempt, best in the country that’s tied with Iowa.
The Illinois offensive line will probably have to team up on Mike Morris, a 6-6, 280-pound Michigan sophomore defensive end who is among the national top 20 with 7.5 sacks.
It’s an offense that’s sputtering, with a -0.059 points-per-play margin in its past three games that is in the lower half of the country. Michigan, meanwhile, sails along at 0.328, fifth best in football.
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No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (10-0, 6-4 ATS)
Consider this the beginning of the Heisman coronation of Blake Corum, third in the country with 1,349 rushing yards. The 5-foot-8, 200-pound junior pounds away like a wrecking ball and sports the shiftiest feet since Fred Astaire.
He started the year with three double-digit yardage efforts, but that third one included five touchdowns against UConn.
Since then, all have hit triple figures. He has averaged 159 yards on 28 carries in the past seven games, with 10 TDs on the ground and one through the air against Michigan State.
He has 18 TDs from scrimmage, tying Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim atop the chart.
Corum will win this game as much for what he does as what he doesn’t do, distracting Illini defenders so quarterback JJ McCarthy can hit some big throws and complementary runner Donovan Edwards (13th in the game with 6.7 yards per scamper) can get some open runs.
Edwards, a sophomore, has dashed for triple-figure yardage twice this season. If and when drives stall, coach Jim Harbaugh gets to turn to one of the best field-goal kickers in the country, senior Jake Moody who leads college football with 109 points tallied.
Michigan runs it two-thirds of the time, and only nine teams keep it on the ground more frequently. He’ll set the tone here, then Corum will come back next week with a big effort in Columbus that gets the Wolverines into the Big Ten title game, where he secures the Heis …
Ahh, hold on. We’ll hold off on what the future will bring Corum and the Wolverines for just a moment, or at least until this weekend’s games are played.
It’s forecasted to be 28 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff, for the national ABC telecast, with minimal chance of precipitation and a steady 10-mph wind.
Sports Betting Recommendation
The Wolverines were very, very good last season on both sides of the ball. This season, as the numbers attest, they’re even better.
Michigan will control this game in water-torture manner, bit by bit, inch by inch, with Corum and Edwards. McCarthy will hit a couple of big passes, and the Wolverines will find themselves up, something like 34-10, late.
A cheapie gets in for Illinois, and there goes the spread cover. But we’re on the total, so there isn’t a worry in the best fall venue in college football.
Our Pick: Over 42.5 (-110)