MLB Over/Under Bet: Clinging to Alcantara’s daytime prowess

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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 12:40 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (5-13, 3.93 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (11-11, 4.39 ERA)

By now, you should know the deal. I’m always heavily intrigued whenever Alcantara takes the mound in a daytime setting, and his markedly consistent performance during these assignments justifies the intrigue (other than him being one of my favorite pitchers in baseball).

The first-time All-Star will be making his 12th career start during afternoon hours. In the first 11, Alcantara was outstanding, stringing together a 1.99 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only three home runs across 68 total innings. Furthermore, the under went 8-3 — with all those “losses” being by no more than a single run.

Alcantara is also spinning his best work of the season right now. He registered a clean 3.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in August, which were his lowest such numbers of any month, and thus far in September, he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through three starts. In addition, he’s pitched Miami into the seventh inning or deeper in each of his last seven outings.

The counterpart, Leake, is also in a groove, as illustrated by his current streak of four consecutive quality starts. That matches his season-high but there’s other evidence to back the 10-year veteran.

One, while Leake is far from being the most overpowering pitcher, let’s take solace in the fact that his opponent, the Marlins, is the lowest-scoring team in the league with 3.76 runs scored per game. They’ve also hit the fewest homers (130), going yard only once every 39.3 at-bats. That can be really useful to Leake, who is very vulnerable to the long ball.

Leake will be working from Arizona today and that can help ensure a quality showing from the right-hander. His home output (3.33 ERA) this year has easily bested what he’s constructed on the road (5.59 ERA), putting him in a spot to keep it going here. Play: UNDER 9 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Cubs Under 8 (WIN)

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 85-73-10, +2.6 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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