These are the best NFL player props for all 32 teams ahead of the 2022 season.
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Arizona Cardinals Best Player Prop
Kyler Murray, UNDER 4,050.5 Passing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Kyler Murray enters his fourth year as quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. In each of the past three seasons, Murray has failed to hit the 4,000 passing mark. What’s more, he’ll be without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games as he serves his suspension. The Cardinals also have one of the 10 toughest schedules in the league this season.
I’m still scratching my head at this number. Murray will need to have a career year and play all 17 games in order to clear this mark.
I don’t think he will. I’m taking the under.
Atlanta Falcons Best Player Prop
Kyle Pitts, OVER 900.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings)
The Atlanta Falcons will not be a good football team in 2022. Losing Matt Ryan hampers this limited offense, and the Falcons defense is about as miserable as it gets.
So why the over on Kyle Pitts? It’s simple. SOMEONE has to catch the ball.
The Falcons receiving core is limited, with Calvin Ridley serving a (very, very dumb) suspension and Drake London is questionable with a knee injury. Pitts, a “tight end,” plays a ton of receiver routes. In his rookie season, he managed 1,026 yards on 68 catches.
I think Pitts gets more targets this year and should cover this number easily.
Baltimore Ravens Best Player Prop
Lamar Jackson, OVER 875.5 Rushing Yards (BetRivers)
In three full seasons, Lamar Jackson has cleared this number twice, rushing for 1,206 yards in his 2019 MVP season and 1,005 yards in 2020. In two shortened seasons, he still managed 695 rushing yards in seven games, and 767 rushing yards last year before getting injured.
Jackson will be playing out the final year of his rookie contract. Watching lesser quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Murray sign for max contracts will serve as inspiration for him this year. The thought of 250 million guaranteed dollars would inspire anyone!
While he’s never been the most accurate passer, he can do a ton of damage with his legs. Losing WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will force Jackson to take the ball himself a little more often.
I think he has a monster year, and the best way to bet him is over 875.5 rushing yards.
Buffalo Bills Best Player Prop
Josh Allen, UNDER 35.5 Passing TD (-110, DraftKings)
The Buffalo Bills are the team to beat this year.
Josh Allen has the potential for a runaway MVP season, but there’s value in fading him to throw 35 or more touchdown passes. As a dual-threat quarterback, his ability to rack up huge rushing yards will hurt his chances of clearing this passing total.
Also, the Bills are an outstanding football team. Playing with the lead the majority of the season has the Bills leaning on the rushing game. What’s more, the Bills are a lock for the AFC East title. If they get the division clinched by Week 16 or 17, we won’t see Allen playing the last two games.
Allen has thrown 36 and 37 TDs the past two seasons while playing a full schedule. Missing a single game this season could be a difference maker. I like the under.
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Carolina Panthers Best Player Prop
Christian McCaffrey, OVER 1,595.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey is a generational talent who’s been plagued with injuries the past two seasons. When healthy, he’s the best running back in the NFL. I think the market has over-corrected to the downside here, and I’m happy to take a shot on this over.
McCaffrey has only played ten games the past two seasons. But the two seasons prior? He notched 1,965 combined yards in 2018 and 2,392 yards in 2019 playing a full schedule. I think we’re getting a pretty juicy number on an elite talent who should see a ton of touches this season.
If he gets hurt for an extended stretch, this bet is toast. Still, there’s value in betting McCaffrey for a bounce-back year.
Chicago Bears Best Player Props
Justin Fields, UNDER 3,350.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Justin Fields, UNDER 18.5 Passing TDs (-112, FanDuel)
The Chicago Bears are my favorite bet to finish dead last in the NFL this season. With Justin Fields as the lone bright spot on an otherwise terrible roster, the Bears will struggle to compete against anyone this year.
At first glance, this total seems quite low. Fields only needs to average 200 passing yards and a little more than one TD pass per game to clear these totals. But I think there’s a reasonable chance Fields gets injured during the first half of the season and misses significant playing time.
The Bears’ offensive line is the worst in the league and offers Fields zero protection.
I love fading Fields across the board.
Cincinnati Bengals Best Player Prop
Joe Burrow, OVER 4,450.5 Passing Yards (-100, DraftKings)
In his second NFL season, Burrow managed 4,611 passing yards. Not bad for a guy who played through an ACL injury for the first half of the season.
It’s also a wildly impressive total considering the complete lack of protection from Burrow’s offensive line. Burrow led the league in sacks taken, getting crushed an astounding 51 times in 2021. In spite of this, Burrow played a full 16 games last season.
With a much improved offensive line in 2022, I like Burrow to improve his numbers across the board. An extra second of protection is more than enough time to get the ball into the hands of Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, or Tyler Boyd.
Take the over.
Cleveland Browns Best Player Prop
Nick Chubb, OVER 1,200.5 Rushing Yards (+100, BetRivers)
With the current quarterback crisis in Cleveland, the Browns will need to rely on their running game to generate meaningful yards on offense.
Fortunately, they have one of the best running backs in the league: Nick Chubb.
Chubb has been a steady performer, averaging more than five yards per carry the past four seasons. He’s cleared 1,200 yards in two of those four seasons and was on pace to clear that total in the other two before injuries sidelined him.
Overall, this is a pretty fair number on Chubb. But I think the Browns will increase his output early during the season without a decent quarterback. Look for Chubb to get a ton of touches and grind out those five-yard carries over and over.
Dallas Cowboys Best Player Props
Dak Prescott, UNDER 4,350 Passing Yards (-130, DraftKings)
Dak Prescott, UNDER 31.5 Passing TDs (-100, DraftKings)
I’m not bullish on the Dallas Cowboys this season. I also think this number is too high for Dak Prescott’s passing totals.
Prescott lost Amari Cooper as his No. 1 receiver during the off-season. An ACL injury to Michael Gallup will force him to miss significant playing time. That leaves Prescott without his two best targets from last season.
CeeDee Lamb is a stud and should rack up a ton of receiving yards, but that won’t be enough support for Prescott. He’s only cleared this passing total twice in six career seasons and has only cleared this touchdown total once.
I’m leaning under.
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Denver Broncos Best Player Props
Russell Wilson, UNDER 4,100.5 passing yards (-106, BetMGM)
Russell Wilson, OVER 9.5 INTs Thrown (-125, BetRivers)
I’m not buying Russell Wilson as the Denver Broncos savior.
Wilson saw a huge drop in production last year, with career-worst passing and rushing totals last season. And while the Broncos have plenty of pieces to support Wilson, he wasn’t a one-man-show in Seattle. He posted a career-low passing total when he had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as targets.
I mean… maybe Wilson just stinks?
This line is too high. Wilson has only cleared 4,000 passing yards four times in his ten seasons as an NFL starter. Injuries are also a concern with an aging quarterback.
I also like Wilson to throw OVER 9.5 interceptions this year. He isn’t the mobile quarterback he used to be. He’ll be forced to throw some ill-advised passes instead of scrambling for first downs.
Detroit Lions Best Player Prop
Jared Goff, OVER 3,600.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
In his five full NFL seasons, Jared Goff has cleared this total four times. The one miss came last season when he missed three games due to injury. He was on pace to throw 3,800 yards but ultimately finished the season with 3,245 yards.
The Detroit Lions are an improved roster across the board. What’s more, they make the biggest jump going from the third-toughest schedule in 2021 to the fifth-easiest in 2022. Goff isn’t a great quarterback, but this number is reasonable for someone of his mediocrity.
Most sportsbooks have Goff listed at 3,750 passing yards. FanDuel is the lone sportsbook that offers odds at 3,600 passing yards. Another example of why it’s so important to have accounts at more than one sportsbook!
Green Bay Packers Best Player Prop
Allen Lazard, OVER 750.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
The departure of Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers has left a big question mark. Can Aaron Rodgers continue his dominance without his number one target?
Short answer: Of course, he can.
With Adams gone, the No. 1 receiver spot is up for grabs in Green Bay. All signs are pointing to Allen Lazard claiming that position (Rodgers himself said he wants Lazard as his primary target) and his production should explode in 2022.
Lazard will need to average 44 receiving yards per game to cash this ticket. That’s extremely doable for any number one receiver in the league, particularly if your quarterback is Aaron Rodgers. I’d bet this up to 1,000 yards and am making a huge bet OVER 750 yards.
(BONUS BET: Allen Lazard +6600 to lead NFL in Touchdown Receptions at BetRivers)
Houston Texans Best Player Prop
Davis Mills, OVER 3,600.5 Passing Yards (-100, DraftKings)
This is an ugly bet, but it’s one of my favorites on the board.
The Houston Texans are going to be terrible this year. They’ve been picked by every sports analyst to finish dead last or within smelling distance of the last place corpse.
But this passing total on QB Davis Mills is too low. Here’s the scenario:
The Texans are losing towards the end of the third quarter. The score is 27-6, and Mills has the ball. He looks up and sees the prevent defense. His opponent isn’t going to let him throw the ball downfield but will happily give up a short pass. Mills dumps the ball off for a five-yard gain.
And again. And again.
Before you know it, Mills has thrown for more than 100 yards in garbage time and the Texans lose 30-9.
Do. Not. Underestimate. Garbage. Time.
I love Mills to hit this total. It won’t be pretty, but it will be profitable.
Indianapolis Colts Best Player Prop
Michael Pittman Jr., OVER 1,025.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Michael Pittman Jr. played all 17 games for the Indianapolis Colts last season, catching 88 balls for a total of 1,082 yards. These are impressive numbers considering his quarterback was Carson Wentz.
With Matt Ryan taking over quarterback duties, Pittman Jr. will see an increase in deep targets. Not only that, but each ball thrown his way will be much easier to catch. Ryan isn’t the greatest quarterback, but he’s a significant upgrade from Wentz.
Pittman Jr. should only improve in his third year for the Colts, so take the over.
Jacksonville Jaguars Best Player Prop
Trevor Lawrence, OVER 3,800.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
In a forgettable 2021 season plagued with more Urban Meyer headlines than regular season wins, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be an improved squad in 2022.
I love this number on Trevor Lawrence, who managed 3,641 passing yards in his rookie campaign. With a year of experience under his belt and fewer off-field distractions, I think Lawrence improves in his sophomore season.
And while I like the Jaguars to improve, they aren’t exactly going to shock anyone. All said and done, they’re still in the bottom third of NFL teams. That means the Jaguars will be playing from behind a lot this season, giving Lawrence the opportunity to throw the ball a lot. Don’t discount just how many yards he can pick up in garbage time.
Kansas City Chiefs Best Player Prop
Patrick Mahomes, OVER 4,500.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
With the departure of Tyreek Hill from the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs offense, I think the market is sleeping on Patrick Mahomes’ totals this year.
Losing Hill is a blow to be certain, but Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. TE Travis Kelce is a prolific ball catcher, and Mahomes will have plenty of opportunities to move the ball downfield. Wide receivers Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than capable of putting up impressive receiving numbers.
Mahomes has cleared this total easily in three of his four seasons as the Chiefs starter. I think he’ll do it again in 2022.
Las Vegas Raiders Best Player Prop
Derek Carr, UNDER 4,500.5 Passing Yards (Caesars)
In 2021, Derek Carr cleared this number easily, throwing for 4,804 yards. He reached this personal best total by completing a career-high 428 passes on a career-high 626 attempts.
But the seven seasons prior? Carr never came close to 4,500 yards. In fact, he’d only thrown for 4,000 yards or better in three of those seven seasons, never going higher than 4,100.
Yes, he has some shiny new toys, and Adams is a huge boost to this offense. But 4,500 passing yards is too high considering Carr’s history. I expect him to regress a bit this season back to his average, and one injury cashes this ticket for us.
Los Angeles Chargers Best Player Prop
Brandon Staley, NFL Coach Of The Year (+1400, DraftKings)
This is not a player prop. Sorry.
Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is the betting favorite to win the Coach of the Year Award. At +1400, there’s still plenty of value for bettors.
The Chargers are set to make a big move forward. QB Justin Herbert is a threat to win NFL MVP, and a much-improved defense under Staley will keep the Chargers competitive. The NFL loves a narrative and if Staley can win the AFC West and lead the Chargers to the playoffs for the first time since 2018, he’s got a great chance to win Coach of the Year.
But if the Chargers play to their full potential? The AFC’s No. 1 seed is possible, and Staley would be a lock for this award.
I like the Chargers to win the AFC West at +200, but I LOVE Staley as NFL Coach of the Year at +1400.
More NFL Futures: Best Bets to Make on all 32 NFL Teams Ahead of 2022 Season
Los Angeles Rams Best Player Props
Cooper Kupp, UNDER 1,325.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetRivers)
Cooper Kupp, UNDER 11.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110, DraftKings)
Cooper Kupp, UNDER 109.5 Receptions (-105, BetRivers)
The secret is out in Los Angeles: Cooper Kupp is the most dynamic, explosive, unleashed-tiger-from-his-cage wide receiver in the NFL.
And that’s why we’re fading him across the board this year.
Kupp is the favorite to win the NFL’s receiving triple crown, repeating as the league leader in receiving yards, touchdowns, and catches. At first glance, these totals look low compared to his record-breaking season last year. But I have a feeling Kupp sees fewer targets this year. With teams knowing just how dangerous he is, look for defenses to double-team Kupp and force Matthew Stafford to find other targets.
Having Kupp on the field as a decoy might be the best option for the Los Angeles Rams offense this year. Look for Stafford to spread the ball around and watch Kupp’s numbers come down in 2022.
Miami Dolphins Best Player Prop
Tyreek Hill, OVER 1,025.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetRivers)
After being traded from the Chiefs, the question everyone is asking is, “Can Tyreek Hill put up impressive numbers without Patrick Mahomes?”
Based on this line, a lot of people don’t think he can repeat his impressive totals from Kansas City. That makes this a great spot to play contrarian. 1,025 receiving yards is not an ambitious total. Hill gains almost 30% of his yards after the catch, so it doesn’t really matter who gives him the ball!
I think the market is overreacting here. Hill has cleared 1,200 yards in three of his past four seasons. 1,025 receiving yards is well within his potential range. I’m grabbing the over.
Minnesota Vikings Best Player Prop
Dalvin Cook, UNDER 1,150.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
With Mike Zimmer’s departure in Minnesota, the Viking offense should thrive this season. Zimmer, the world’s most conservative play caller, leaned on the run game and bleeding the clock instead of taking chances downfield.
That’s a big reason Dalvin Cook saw 250+ rushing attempts in each of the past three seasons. With Zimmer gone and a coaching staff that isn’t afraid to throw the ball, I think Cook sees a regression in production this season.
With the running back position being the most injury prone and with fewer touches overall, I like Cook to comfortably come in under 1,150 rushing yards.
New England Patriots Best Player Prop
Mac Jones, OVER 12.5 Interceptions Thrown (-110, BetMGM)
In his rookie campaign, Mac Jones posted respectable stats across the board. But under the surface, there’s cause for concern in 2022.
For starters, the New England Patriots’ schedule has gotten tougher as they go from one of the top-five easiest schedules in 2021 to top-ten toughest in 2022. More importantly, Jones lost his biggest protector during the off-season. Right Guard Shaq Mason, a top-five offensive lineman in football, was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jones threw 13 INTs in 2021, and I think the combination of tougher opponents with a weaker offensive line will have him scrambling a lot this year. Without that extra half-second to generate a proper throw, I think we see Jones spraying the ball all over the place, leading to more interceptions.
New Orleans Saints Best Player Props
Jameis Winston, OVER 3,650 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
Jameis Winston, OVER 24.5 Touchdown Passes (-125, BetRivers)
In seven career seasons, Jameis Winston has cleared this passing total only three times. But in each instance, he played a full 16-game schedule and torched this number, throwing for 4,042, 4,090, and 5,109 (!!) yards. Even an injury-shortened season in 2017 saw Winston put up 3,504 yards in only 13 games.
Winston is a gunslinger and will throw the ball early and often. A sore foot in preseason may have bettors off his scent, but this number feels way too low. The New Orleans Saints’ offense is downright impressive and Winston will have no shortage of targets. I love the Over here.
New York Giants Best Player Prop
Saquon Barkley, OVER 1,300.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
When healthy, Saquon Barkley sees plenty of touches and is the best offensive weapon on the New York Giants. The 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year put together an impressive 2,000+ rushing and receiving yards season on 352 touches. His sophomore season saw his touches drop dramatically to 269, but Barkley still managed 1,400+ total yards.
And while he’s missed significant playing time the past two seasons, I think this line has come down low enough to take a crack on the over. Barkley will need to average five yards per touch on 260 total touches to clear this total. I think he gets there.
New York Jets Best Player Prop
Breece Hall, UNDER 800.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
There are a few reasons I love this number on New York Jets rookie running back Breece Hall:
- Hall has only managed 2.1 yards per carry in the preseason. That’s not good.
- The Jets are terrible. Playing from behind means more passes and fewer rushes.
- Hall might not be the starter! See No. 1! The rookie is averaging 2.1 yards per carry? That’s a recipe for time on the bench.
This line has been steamed down from 900 yards, but there’s still value on betting under 800.
Philadelphia Eagles Best Player Prop
Jalen Hurts, UNDER 3,550 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
The Philadelphia Eagles are my sleeper pick to win the NFC this season.
The Eagles have one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. With an NFL-best offensive line and rock-solid receiving targets in A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert, the Eagles simply don’t have any glaring weaknesses.
The one question mark is QB Jalen Hurts. If the second-year quarterback can play to his potential, he’ll have a fantastic year. Still, a lot of the Eagles’ success last season came when they took the ball out of Hurts’ hands. The Eagles play a ground-and-pound rushing style that bleeds the clock and frustrates opponents. And with Hurts being a dual-threat quarterback himself, I think his passing will be limited this season.
I love the Eagles this year but still think Hurts comes in under 3,550 passing yards.
Pittsburgh Steelers Best Player Prop
Najee Harris, UNDER 1,600.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Najee Harris cleared this total last season, generating a total of 1,667 yards from scrimmage. His 1,200 rushing yards and 467 receiving yards were impressive, finishing second in total yards for running backs behind only Jonathan Taylor.
But those totals don’t tell the whole story.
While Harris was second amongst running backs in total yards, it took him an NFL-leading number of touches. Harris recorded a staggering 381 touches, with an average of 4.4 yards gained per play. That YPG average put him outside the top 40 running backs for 2021.
The more astute readers will understand the NFL only has 32 teams, so Harris was less productive than 10 backup running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be playing from behind a lot this season. I don’t think Harris gets nearly the same number of touches. Take the under.
San Francisco 49ers Best Player Prop
Deebo Samuel, OVER 1,200.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-105, FanDuel)
Trey Lance is the biggest liability for NFL MVP at most sportsbooks, but there’s a better bet available for San Francisco 49ers believers: Deebo Samuel.
There are two scenarios in San Francisco this year. Either Lance is every bit the quarterback head coach Kyle Shanahan says he is, or he isn’t. In either case, I think Samuel gets a ton of touches and racks up huge yards.
If Lance is a deadly accurate passer, Deebo should see a lot of deep routes. One or two deep catches per game will be enough to clear this total.
On the other hand, if Lance is a bust, Shanahan will need to play a simpler offense. With check-down passes and goofy rushing routes, Samuel will still get a ton of touches closer to the line of scrimmage and rack up yards.
Samuel is the best offensive player for the 49ers. I don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t get at least 125 touches again this year. I love this bet.
Seattle Seahawks Best Player Prop
Tyler Lockett, UNDER 850.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
The departure of Willson from the Seattle Seahawks might hit Tyler Lockett hardest of all.
Without Wilson as his quarterback for the first time in his career, I expect to see Lockett’s production fall off a cliff in 2022. Lockett led the NFL in catches over 20+ yards in 2021, amounting to 715 receiving yards on catches longer than 20 yards. That represented more than 60% of his total receiving yards (1,175) on the season.
Whether the Seahawks start Geno Smith or Drew Lock is irrelevant. Neither quarterback is as accurate as Wilson. What’s more, both Lock and Smith are less composed under pressure. The lessened opportunity to throw a deep ball will mean fewer targets overall for Lockett in 2022.
Fewer targets. Worse passers. Less catches. This isn’t complicated. Grab the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Player Prop
Tom Brady, OVER 35.5 Passing Touchdowns (34.5, BetRivers)
Tom Brady enters his 23rd (!!!) NFL season and returns to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad loaded with top-notch receiving targets. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are reliable guys capable of huge yards, and the Bucs added future Hall of Famer Julio Jones and Russell Gage this offseason.
This total opened at 4,700 yards and has been hammered down. It IS safer to bet under on NFL Player Totals, as one injury can completely wreck a futures ticket. But Brady continues to eat almonds, meditate daily, and is fast asleep by 6:30 p.m. when he isn’t playing. Despite being the oldest player in the league by a full five years, Brady hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2016.
It’s not a huge bet, but I’ve learned never to bet against Touchdown Tom. Grab the over.
(BONUS BET: FanDuel has Tom Brady’s touchdown total set at 36.5, and bettors can play a “middle” by betting OVER 34.5 touchdowns at BetRivers and UNDER 36.5 touchdowns at FanDuel. You’ll win both bets if Brady throws 35 or 36 touchdowns exactly, and only lose the vig if he throws any other number of TDs)
Tennessee Titans Best Player Prop
Derrick Henry, OVER 1,300.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)
If Derrick Henry remains healthy, there’s no reason he can’t clear this number.
If. Big if.
Henry missed half of last season with a foot injury. There are rumors he’s not fully recovered, but he insists his foot is in good shape and he’s feeling 100%.
When Henry played a full schedule in 2019 and 2020, he managed 1,540 and 2,027 rushing yards. Even a shortened season in 2021 saw Henry manage an impressive 937 rushing yards in only eight games. If he stays healthy, based on his average touches and career yards per carry averages, Henry only needs to play 12 games to cash this ticket.
Of course, if he gets hurt, we’re toast. I’m leaning Over, but it’s a small bet.
Washington Commanders Best Player Prop
Carson Wentz, UNDER 3,500.5 Yards (BetRivers)
Carson Wentz played five impressive regular season games in 2017. People seem to think that makes him a good quarterback.
They shouldn’t. It doesn’t. He isn’t.
In the grand scheme of humanity, taking into account the global population of seven billion people then yes, Wentz is a fantastic quarterback. But when ranking all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, Wentz falls somewhere between 24th and 28th. He’ll win just enough games to stay employed. He’ll dazzle you with a 60-yard pass attempt until it sails ten yards beyond his open receiver. That’s about it.
Don’t overthink this one. He’s a bad quarterback playing for a bad team. Take the under.