NFL Betting Trends, Week 7: Returning QBs Face Point Spreads on Key Number

This looks like a slot machine, not a sportsbook.

Triple 7s emerged at midweek for NFL Week 7, with three teams giving seven points to their opponents as of Wednesday morning. Two other favorites are -6.5 and could be wagered up into the 7 club at DraftKings.

There are interesting factors surrounding the big point spreads.

Two of the 7-point lines reflect returning playmakers.

The Dallas Cowboys are -7 against the visiting Detroit Lions with quarterback Dak Prescott expected to return from a Week 1 thumb injury. The Cowboys went 4-1 under Cooper Rush during his absence, and Prescott takes over a 4-2 team that has one of just four records above .500 in the NFC.

Detroit comes off a bye and features an unusual distinction. It has given up the most points in the NFL, 170, even after having no game in Week 6. Detroit’s porous defense, and high expectations for Prescott, have been placed onto the line.

Chalk betting view: Prescott will torch the league’s worst defense.

Dog betting view: Dak will be rusty, especially in the first half. Timing with his receivers will be an issue.

Read more: Lions vs. Cowboys Odds and Prediction

Tua Back for Steelers vs. Dolphins Tilt

The Miami Dolphins expect to welcome back Tua Tagovailoa, who was injured against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and again vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. He finished the Buffalo game but was taken out for good against Cincinnati.

The Dolphins have scuffled without Tua, losing every game he’s missed. The Dolphins have slid from 3-0 to 3-3, and Tua’s return has been baked heavily into this betting line.

Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill props bettors are licking their chops, waiting to pounce on anytime and first-touchdown props with the return of Tua’s ability to throw a deep ball.

Pardon the Steelers for viewing this as the Rodney Dangerfield no-respect betting line. The Steelers enjoyed their finest game of the season, toppling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-18 at +10.5 and returning +350 to DraftKings moneyline bettors last week.

Chalk betting view: Tua is dynamite, one of a kind. Look at those four fourth-quarter touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. Remember those 469 passing yards.

Dog betting view: The Steelers kept Tom Brady out of the end zone until late last week. And they batted away the potential tying two-point conversion. They can play tough again.

More on Miami: NFL Week 7 betting tips say lay the points

Texans vs. Raiders Makes it a Jackpot

The third ‘7’ involves two teams that were idle last week.

The Las Vegas Raiders are -7 to the Houston Texans, despite having a 1-4 record.

Chalk betting view: The Raiders are due to hurt somebody. They are too good to be 1-4 and have covered the spread in their last two games. They lost to the Kansas City Chiefs by only one point, 30-29.

Dog betting view: Uh, pardon me, who is 3-1-1 against the spread this season? The Texans. And the Raiders can’t blow anybody out.

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NFL Week 7 Point Spreads Just Off the Key Number

Two other games have bordered on 7 all week.

Large spreads that may entice dog bettors include the Seattle Seahawks +6.5 against the Los Angeles Chargers, a perennially weak home favorite. The Chargers have failed to cover in their last two home affairs, but did squeak out an ugly, 16-13 overtime triumph as 4-point faves over the Denver Broncos on Monday night to rescue their moneyline backers.

The Baltimore Ravens, 3-3 despite being having a double-digit second-half lead in every game but one this year, lay a fat -6.5 to the Cleveland Browns.

Bucs Lay Double Digits in Carolina

Tampa Bay, scuffling at 3-3 and smarting from its upset loss to the Steelers, has the largest spread on the Week 7 card, -10.5, facing perhaps the most hapless NFL team, the Carolina Panthers.

There is a lingering question concerning where Carolina is at. Did the Panthers solidify their team by throwing disgruntled receiver Robbie Anderson out of Sunday’s 24-10 loss to the Los Angeles Rams and then trading him Monday to the Arizona Cardinals?

Interim coach Steve Wilks, who replaced the fired Matt Rhule last week, has at least sent a message to the team regarding its hierarchy.

The Panthers did not quit against the Rams and nearly covered +10.5. Will they give a desperation effort similar to what Pittsburgh produced last week against Tampa Bay?

Heinicke Takes the Reins for Commanders

While Prescott and Tagovailoa return from injuries, Taylor Heinicke begins the replacement process for Carson Wentz, who fractured a finger on his throwing hand in Washington’s 12-7 triumph over the Chicago Bears.

Gamblers may not trust Washington at only +5-5 against the visiting Green Bay Packers, but they know something about Heinicke. He provides a spark Wentz does not. Heinicke is fleet-footed and can steal a few first downs with his legs.

He started 15 games for the Commanders last season, throwing for 3,419 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions with an 85.9 QB rating.

The team has a more up-tempo look with him behind center. In many ways, Heinicke is a better quarterback. He has the chance to show that the 2-4 Commanders did not need to acquire Wentz.

Top Midweek Bet Percentages at DraftKings

A strong majority of the betting handle — 82% — is on the Under 44.5 for the Thursday night game between the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints.

Highest level of support on Sunday’s favorites goes to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at 93% handle, as they visit the San Francisco 49ers.

The Packers have 84% of the handle despite laying the points against the host Commanders.

The Ravens have garnered 82% of the handle, despite laying nearly a touchdown to the Browns.

On the underdog side, the Jets have been soaring and accounted for 88% of the handle for their trip to Denver after a run late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That type of support is capable of driving the spread number down, and the game has moved from Denver -1.5 to a pick ‘em at DraftKings.

The Seahawks have 85% of the handle against the Chargers.

The Texans notched 71% of the midweek handle against the Raiders.

The Lions have healthy backing at 66% of the handle against the Cowboys. Bettors know they are facing Prescott, but the Lions have shown they can score and Prescott can be mistake-prone.

Over bettors are jumping on the bandwagon at 93% handle for Over 47.5 in Bengals- Falcons. The public is generally split on the game, where Cincinnati is -6. The Bengals finally reached 30 points in a game, topping the Saints last week 30-26.

The Falcons continue getting substantial points and are the league’s only unbeaten team against the spread.

Jets-Broncos bettors are Under the total: The only game on the Week 7l schedule with an over-under below 40 has the bettors favoring Under at 88% handle. The number has dipped from 39.5 to 38.5 in early wagering.

Risers & Fallers: Super Bowl 57 futures odds

Teams with a Week 7 Bye

This may be the best collection of idle teams, ever.

The 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 5-1 Buffalo Bills, 5-1 Minnesota Vikings, and 3-3 Rams combine for a 19-5 record on the sidelines. They have the byes this week.

Can they do it? Odds Eagles go undefeated

Patriots Lurking on a Breakout

Remember New England going on a seven-game win streak last year?

They started it with defense.

And the Patriots now have two straight triumphs, shutting out Detroit and then giving up just 15 points to Cleveland. They play the Chicago Bears on Monday night and could go over .500 for the first time all season.

Look out, they may be ready to roll again.

After the Bears, New England plays two of its following three against the vastly-improved New York Jets. That will provide insight into the direction of this team.

As for the AFC East, if Tagovailoa stays healthy for Miami, this is an excellent division.

If both the Dolphins and Patriots secure victories this week, the entire AFC East will be above .500.

By the way, a DraftKings moneyline parlay on the Cowboys, Patriots, and Dolphins to win this week pays +121.

That’s not scintillating, but it’s not bad. Make almost any other team a fourth selection (but not Tampa Bay) and that ticket is in the neighborhood of +200.

Longshot Parlay

It’s one thing to outline four-team parlays with chalk.

But what if someone threw $10 on this longshot at 1 p.m. last week at DraftKings?

• Pittsburgh +350 over Tampa Bay
• New York Jets +265 over Green Bay
• New York Giants +200 over Baltimore
• Atlanta +190 against San Francisco.

They were all dogs. Big dogs. Roughly +29 combined at the book.

And what if you put it all on one ticket.? One moneyline slam.

We would not be surprised if someone did. It pays a whopping $1,490 on a $10, according to Gaming Today’s parlay calculator.

Yes, that’s an abundant leap of faith, but a two-teamer in the New York market would not have been such a longshot.

The Jets and Giants would pay out $99.50 for that $10 ticket and just shy of $200 for $20. Some bettors in that market undoubtedly slammed that one.

DraftKings Reports Notable Bet

While the Broncos are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, on average, one bettor enjoyed watching them Monday Night. That is because they were able to turn a $25 SGP on Monday Night Football into a $6,775 payout. The bet had an 80% profit boost and +15000 odds. Here are the winning legs:

• Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• Greg Dulcich Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• DEN Broncos Under 26.5 Total Points
• LA Chargers Under 31.5 Total Points
• Russell Wilson Under 274.5 Passing Yards
• Justin Herbert Under 304.5 Passing Yards
• Melvin Gordon III Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
• Courtland Sutton Under 94.5 Receiving Yards
• Gerald Everett Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

That deserves a tip of the hat. Dulcich was playing in his first NFL game. Tying a nine-teamer to that was a gutsy call. But that’s also why it paid so well.

Looking ahead: NFL Week 8 odds

NFL Week 7 Lines

Here are current odds on the week’s NFL card from various US sportsbook apps.