NFL Betting Trends, Week 9: Public Jumps on Struggling Bucs, Chargers, Raiders

To the Los Angeles Chargers, the betting message is “All is Forgiven”.

To the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s “Time to begin Anew.”

To the Las Vegas Raiders, it could be “Here’s a Mulligan.”

Three struggling NFL teams have been given a Week 9 betting endorsement by the public, which expects them to break out. Here’s a look around the NFL with spread-bet handle percentages as of Wednesday morning.

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How the Week 9 Bets are Trending

The Chargers began Wednesday with 92% of the DraftKings handle as a 3-point road favorite against the Atlanta Falcons. This greets a team that was thumped 37-23 at home by the Seattle Seahawks before the bye.

The 4-3 Chargers are expected to run up numbers against the NFL’s worst pass defense that yields nearly 307 yards per game.

The Bucs, losers of three straight, are endorsed by 75% of the spread handle at -2.5 against the visiting Los Angeles Rams. How different this game is from their January playoff meeting, when the Rams toppled the Bucs and later won the Super Bowl.

Now it’s the 3-4 Rams and 3-5 Bucs, trying to survive. Will the apparent resolution of Tom Brady’s personal problems, a divorce, jump start his focus for Tampa Bay?

The Las Vegas Raiders also gained an unusual nod. They have 78% of the handle against the host Jacksonville Jaguars at -2. Anything with a minus number in front of the Raiders looks peculiar this week. You can’t minus a zero.

nfl week 9 betting trends, raiders
NFL Week 9 betting trends show the public backing the Raiders over Jacksonville (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

That’s what the Raiders got last week. They were shut out by the New Orleans Saints, 24-0.

That was a head-scratcher for bettors in Week 8. The Raiders had scored more than 30 points for three straight weeks. That goose egg blew up a number of Over parlays.

But here are the Raiders, again as a road chalk.

That’s the nature of misdirection thinking.

The books and bettors expect a change and have put it into the line.

Update: Super Bowl 2022 odds after trade deadline

Hot Teams Getting Bettors’ Love at Big Prices

Some betting considerations are actually in line with the teams’ recent performance.

The 7-0 Philadelphia Eagles had 92% of the midweek handle at -14 for Thursday’s matchup at the 1-5-1 Houston Texans. Philadelphia manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers 35-13, while the Texans were dropped 17-10 by the Tennessee Titans, who had a backup quarterback.

Houston has the worst run defense in the league, and gamblers expect Philadelphia to exploit it.

The Eagles, along with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, are the high-quality teams laying double-digit numbers in Week 9.

Can they run the table: Eagles’ odds to go undefeated

Bills-Jets Backdrop

Did the Jets peak?

The betting line of the Bills -13 on the road suggests that. So does Buffalo garnering 79% of the spread handle.

Two major developments impact this line.

One, the Jets miss running-back stalwart Breece Hall, who was injured during their Week 7 victory over the Denver Broncos.

Two, they never recovered from a penalty last week. The high-water mark of the Jets’ season may be Michael Carter streaking down the sidelines for an 84-yard Pick 6 in the final minute of the first half against the New England Patriots.
The touchdown was going to put the Jets up, 17-3. But they were flagged for roughing the passer, an unfortunate call that had nothing to do with the play.

New England instead kicked a field goal just before the half, and the Jets eventually gave up 19 unanswered points. This was the day the Jets were going to erase New England’s 12-game win streak over them and emphasize a new hierarchy among the better teams of the NFC East.

Didn’t happen. And now they face Josh Allen and Co.

The Santa Claus Line?

Quick, which team has the longest win streak in the AFC? And why are they getting 12.5 points?

The Titans have won and covered five straight games. They sit atop the AFC South. Yet they are +12.5 against the host Chiefs, who have 73% of the spread handle.

The betting market appears to believe that Titans quarterback Ryan either won’t play or will be limited. Tannehill did not play last week because of an ankle injury and an illness. His backup Malik Willis was not effective.

Tennessee had Derrick Henry’s 219-yard day as a bailout against the Texans. But if the Chiefs shut him down — and they could pack the line of scrimmage to temper his impact — the Titans don’t have a passing game.

Any changes in this line could reflect sentiment about whether Tannehill will go.

Cincinnati Bengals: Split Decision

Public handle on the Bengals -7.5 versus the Carolina Panthers has been divided. The Panthers had a scant 49-51% betting handle majority, but the gamblers pushed the line from Cincinnati -7 to -7.5 early Wednesday morning.

This happened right after the Bengals were embarrassed on Monday night by the Cleveland Browns, 32-13.

Missing Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals looked rudderless and could be in serious trouble.

The line nonetheless projects a rebound.

That may be easier said than done. The Panthers have shown some grit and authored “A Bettor’s Perilous Journey” for some in-game gamblers last week.

What a finish to their game against the Atlanta Falcons.

When Atlanta went ahead 34-28 with 36 seconds remaining, many Falcons bettors breathed a sigh of relief. But others bet on them to collapse.

Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today the Panthers’ in-game odds became +2600 at that moment. And there was plenty of action on that.

With no timeouts and 23 seconds left, Panthers quarterback P.J. Walker rolled out from his own 38 and launched a rainbow to D.J. Moore in the Falcons end zone. Moore snared it with 12 seconds to go.

The in-game bettors looked clairvoyant. But Moore took off his helmet in the celebration and drew a penalty, prompting the extra point to come from 48 yards out. It missed. So did Eddy Piñeiro’s overtime field goal from PAT range.

Given that many chances, the Falcons won.

For the bettors who took the stab at 26-to-1 odds, genius was not enough. This one exceeds the “bad beat” terminology.

There were too many steps involved. It was a “tortuous beat.”

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That Didn’t Take Long

We speculated here a couple days ago that it would be interesting to see how much futures money the San Francisco 49ers would take in the wake of Week 8’s 31-14 throttling of the Los Angeles Rams.

Turns out, it’s a lot.

Since that game, the Niners have taken the most Super Bowl of any team in the league at DraftKings

That has knocked them all the way up to +1300 to win the Super Bowl at the book. That’s a significant jump from +1800, the area they’d been in before they traded for Christian McCaffrey.

CMC was a magician in the Niners’ victory. While the rushing touchdown was expected, his leaping touchdown catch and TD toss illustrate how dangerous the Niners could become

Along with the Niners, the Bills, Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are taking considerable DraftKings money to win the Super Bowl.

Read more: 49ers’ Super Bowl futures tighten after CMC trade

Bettors Cash In

A group of DraftKings gamblers went to the bank with Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb Monday night.
Chubb paid +700 to be the first TD scorer, -115 to tally any time, and +475 to hit paydirt twice in the team’s win over the Bengals.

Chubb paid a group of gamblers who had an angle.

One patron went deep on both teams and made a huge score.

The bettor was able to turn a $10 bet into a $14,010 payout. This SGP had a 40% profit boost and the winning legs were:
• Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• Jacoby Brissett Anytime Touchdown Scorer
• Nick Chubb 1st Touchdown Scorer
• Jacoby Brissett Over 219.5 Passing Yards
• Nick Chubb Over 99.5 Rushing Yards
• Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

What a call.

There were three high-risk elements that were realized.

Nick Chubb scored first. That part of the bet is always an educated crapshoot.

Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett rushed for a score.

And Brissett somehow recorded 278 passing yards on a night for which the Browns ran the ball 44 times. The 44 and the 278 rarely go together.

But that, as Robert De Niro said in the movie “Casino”, is why it paid so well.

Risky Prop to Monitor

See if this is the edge you fan fine-tune over time and slam to your advantage.

Among the myriad of props at the books is one entitled ‘To Score First and Lose’. Seems like an obscure dice roll.

But it usually pays between +300 and +450. Pretty nice return for something that’s not predicated on the point spread or an individual player.

Last week, seven teams scored first and lost. What they had in common was that most of them are average or below average.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Panthers, Lions, Jets, Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Rams all paid in this category.

If you get a feel for this over time, it can pay handsomely. It also allows some razzle-dazzle. Try it with two teams. Hit one of them and the return should be close to 2-to-1. Hit both and you have about 4-to-1 on two separate wagers.

NFL Week 9 Betting Lines

Here are current odds from the top sports betting apps on this week’s NFL slate:

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Sun (11/5) @ 1:03pm ET CHI Bears +3300 +3300 +320 +1100 0
NO Saints -10000 -10000 -417 -5000 0
Thu (11/2) @ 8:16pm ET TEN Titans +2.5 -105 +4.5 -1111 +4.5 -1250 +3.5 +230 +3.5 +215 -3.0 -149
PIT Steelers -2.5 -115 -4.5 +650 -4.5 +600 -3.5 -303 -3.5 -294 +3.0 +120
Sun (11/5) @ 9:32am ET MIA Dolphins +2.5 -110 +6.5 +145 +5.5 -115 +6.5 -125 +6.5 -115 +7.0 0
KC Chiefs -2.5 -110 -6.5 -189 -5.5 -115 -6.5 -105 -6.5 -114 -7.0 0
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET ARI Cardinals +7.5 -110 +28.5 0 +27.5 -10000 +26.5 +877 +27.5 -213 +27.0 0
CLE Browns -7.5 -110 -28.5 +3000 -27.5 +2800 -26.5 -10000 -27.5 +162 -27.0 0
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET WAS Commanders +1.5 -105 -2.5 -417 -3.5 +180 -2.5 -233 -2.5 -196 -3.0 -130
NE Patriots -1.5 -115 +2.5 +300 +3.5 -250 +2.5 +180 +2.5 +148 +3.0 +105
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET SEA Seahawks +5.5 -110 +36.5 +240 +37.5 -110 +34.0 +600 +37.5 -139 +40.5 +130
BAL Ravens -5.5 -110 -36.5 -333 -37.5 -120 -34.0 -1000 -37.5 +106 -40.5 -161
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET LA Rams +10.5 -125 +16.5 +1100 +16.5 +220 +17.0 +175 +16.5 +168 +17.0 +105
GB Packers -10.5 -105 -16.5 -2500 -16.5 -303 -17.0 -222 -16.5 -227 -17.0 -130
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings +4.0 -110 +3.5 +390 -2.5 -200 +3.5 +380 +3.5 +375 +4.0 -227
ATL Falcons -4.0 -110 -3.5 -588 +2.5 +150 -3.5 -556 -3.5 -588 -4.0 +175
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET TB Buccaneers +2.5 -110 +2.5 +120 +2.5 +135 +2.0 -278 +2.5 +148 +2.5 +135
HOU Texans -2.5 -110 -2.5 -149 -2.5 -175 -2.0 +215 -2.5 -196 -2.5 -169
Sun (11/5) @ 1:03pm ET CHI Bears +6.5 -110 +7.5 -141 +8.5 -125 +7.5 -130 +8.5 -114 +6.5 +450 +7.0 0
NO Saints -6.5 -110 -7.5 +110 -8.5 -105 -7.5 +100 -8.5 -108 -6.5 -769 -7.0 0
Sun (11/5) @ 4:05pm ET IND Colts -2.5 -110 -13.5 -5000 -13.5 -10000 -14.0 -161 -1.5 -110 -13.5 -294 -14.0 -208
CAR Panthers +2.5 -110 +13.5 +1600 +13.5 +1200 +14.0 +125 +1.5 -110 +13.5 +210 +14.0 +165
Sun (11/5) @ 4:25pm ET NY Giants +3.5 -110 +24.5 -2000 +23.5 +675 +24.0 -833 +1.0 -110 +24.5 -909 +24.0 0
LV Raiders -3.5 -110 -24.5 +1000 -23.5 -1429 -24.0 +500 -1.0 -110 -24.5 +530 -24.0 0
Sun (11/5) @ 4:25pm ET DAL Cowboys +3.0 -110 +4.5 +1800 +5.5 -208 +5.5 -208 +3.5 -120 +5.5 -270 +5.0 +130
PHI Eagles -3.0 -110 -4.5 -5000 -5.5 +155 -5.5 +165 -3.5 -103 -5.5 +198 -5.0 -161
Sun (11/5) @ 8:22pm ET BUF Bills +9.5 -120 +5.5 +420 +13.5 +100 +5.5 +215 +1.5 -109 +6.5 +320 +6.0 -294
CIN Bengals -9.5 -110 -5.5 -667 -13.5 -130 -5.5 -278 -1.5 -112 -6.5 -476 -6.0 +220
Mon (11/6) @ 8:16pm ET LA Chargers -1.5 -110 -20.5 -208 -14.5 +135 -20.5 -1000 -20.5 -278 -13.5 0
NY Jets +1.5 -110 +20.5 +160 +14.5 -175 +20.5 +600 +20.5 +205 +13.5 0
Thu (11/2) @ 8:16pm ET TEN Titans u36.5 -130 u36.5 -526 u36.5 -130 u36.5 -135 u36 +100
PIT Steelers o36.5 +100 o36.5 +350 o36.5 +100 o36.5 +104 o36 -125
Sun (11/5) @ 9:32am ET MIA Dolphins u38.5 +100 u35.5 -167 u38.5 +100 u45.5 -175 u44.5 -112
KC Chiefs o38.5 -135 o35.5 +130 o38.5 -135 o45.5 +132 o44.5 -112
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET ARI Cardinals o28.5 +100 o27.5 +1800 o28.5 +100 o27.5 +670 o26.5 -105
CLE Browns u28.5 -130 u27.5 -5000 u28.5 -130 u27.5 -1429 u26.5 -120
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET WAS Commanders u42.5 -115 u40.5 -120 u42.5 -115 u43.5 -139 u40.5 -120
NE Patriots o42.5 -115 o40.5 -110 o42.5 -115 o43.5 +106 o40.5 -105
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET SEA Seahawks u43.5 -125 u43.5 -130 u43.5 -125 u42.5 -115 u46.5 +165
BAL Ravens o43.5 -105 o43.5 +100 o43.5 -105 o42.5 -114 o46.5 -208
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET LA Rams u20.5 -141 u19.5 -125 u20.5 -141 u19.5 -141 u19 +125
GB Packers o20.5 +105 o19.5 -105 o20.5 +105 o19.5 +108 o19 -154
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings u51.5 -105 u52.5 -333 u51.5 -105 u52.5 -147 u52.5 -294
ATL Falcons o51.5 -125 o52.5 +240 o51.5 -125 o52.5 +112 o52.5 +220
Sun (11/5) @ 1:02pm ET TB Buccaneers u68.5 -110 u69.5 -110 u68.5 -110 u69.5 -114 u69.5 +100
HOU Texans o68.5 -115 o69.5 -120 o68.5 -115 o69.5 -114 o69.5 -125
Sun (11/5) @ 1:03pm ET CHI Bears o44.5 +180 o44.5 +120 o44.5 +180 o42 -110 o41.5 -112 o50.5 -152 o41.5 0
NO Saints u44.5 -250 u44.5 -149 u44.5 -250 u42 -110 u41.5 -109 u50.5 +116 u41.5 0
Sun (11/5) @ 4:05pm ET IND Colts u41.5 +105 u45.5 -105 u41.5 +105 u44.5 -110 u43.5 -161 u40.5 -400
CAR Panthers o41.5 -141 o45.5 -125 o41.5 -141 o44.5 -110 o43.5 +122 o40.5 +300
Sun (11/5) @ 4:25pm ET NY Giants u40.5 -115 u39.5 -141 u40.5 -115 u39.0 -112 u36.5 -114 u36.5 -105
LV Raiders o40.5 -115 o39.5 +110 o40.5 -115 o39.0 -109 o36.5 -114 o36.5 -120
Sun (11/5) @ 4:25pm ET DAL Cowboys o55.5 -125 o51.5 +1100 o55.5 -125 o46.5 -112 o56.5 -132 o54.5 -105
PHI Eagles u55.5 -105 u51.5 -2500 u55.5 -105 u46.5 -109 u56.5 +102 u54.5 -120
Sun (11/5) @ 8:22pm ET BUF Bills o42.5 +220 o42.5 +195 o42.5 +220 o51.0 -110 o42.5 -114 o42.5 +230
CIN Bengals u42.5 -303 u42.5 -263 u42.5 -303 u51.0 -110 u42.5 -115 u42.5 -303
Mon (11/6) @ 8:16pm ET LA Chargers o39.5 -189 o33.5 +150 o39.5 -189 o32.5 -130 o28.5 0
NY Jets u39.5 +145 u33.5 -196 u39.5 +145 u32.5 +100 u28.5 0
About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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