Let’s take a look at the latest NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds (OPOY) after the first four weeks of the NFL season. The following odds are from the top sports betting apps we recommend. You can easily find a player you’re looking for by searching within the table.
But who should bettors focus on? NFL OPOY winners do not necessarily come from one of the best teams in the league. Only seven since the 2000 season have been on teams that made it to the Super Bowl. Only two winners were on the teams that won it (Cooper Kupp, Super Bowl 56; Marshall Faulk, Super Bowl 35).
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Odds to Win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Players who break records or come close to doing so have the best chance of winning. Jefferson and Kupp had a shot at breaking Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record. Derrick Henry became just the eighth player to rush for 2,000+ yards.
Michael Thomas broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record. Patrick Mahomes became the third quarterback to throw 50+ touchdowns in a season.
However, it is not necessarily enough to just set a record, hit a milestone, or come close to doing either. Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing record in 1984 with 2,105 yards but lost to Dan Marino, the first quarterback to throw for 5000+ yards in a season.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting Odds: Top Favorites
When choosing a player to put money on, bettors should look for someone who could have a statistically significant season. So far in the 2023 NFL season, here are the top favorites:
McCaffrey is coming off a four-touchdown day against Arizona, which catapults him to the top of the charts. Including receiving TDs, that’s now seven on the year. He’s scored a touchdown in 13 straight games dating back to last season.
In addition to scores, he’s had 80 carries for 459 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He’s been a beast that’s taking advantage of a strong overall team in San Francisco. If he stays healthy throughout the year, we assume that production will only continue consistently.
Minnesota finally is in the win column, but it hasn’t been doom and gloom for the Vikings all year. Jefferson has been incredible with 543 yards and 3 touchdowns across the first four games of the season. The only thing that needs to change for the Vikings are the turnover woes and poor defensive outcomes, and that will only boost Jefferson’s chances.
Miami has exploded as one of the NFL’s top teams, even with their setback against Buffalo last week. So far this season, Hill has 470 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. His average is a bit skewed at 16.8 yards per catch with a few large plays this season.
Still, he’s a top weapon on a strong offensive unit. He saw limited action by his standards last week with only five targets and three catches, but those numbers should go back to normal in upcoming action.
Believe it or not, the highest quarterback on the list is not the newly-renewed Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts. It’s Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson at most sportsbooks. The Ravens are the top team in the AFC North, and a lot of it is thanks to Jackson’s performance.
OPOY Odds: Dark Horses and Long Shots
We’ll go deeper into the board and look at players with odds of +4000 or higher. Here’s a few of our favorite picks here at the moment.
Mahomes has seen his odds tumble after the first few weeks of the season, so this is more of a live value play. Over the first four games, he’s still hit over 1,000 yards passing and is completing 64.3 percent of his passes. His ratio is eight touchdowns to four picks.
It’s worth noting that the scoring production wasn’t there against Jacksonville in Week 2, but that was his best passing performance. He completed 29-for-41 passes for 305 yards. His QBR is still one of the highest in the league at 71.4.
Another player who has dropped down the odds board is Chase. Part of the issue has been the Bengals in general, who have looked completely off over the first four weeks offensively. If you think the team has bottomed out and will return to normal, this is a good play.
Chase has grown tired of the offensive production and expressed his frustration publicly. That may get some people to avoid this pick as they point to potential chaos brewing. Or, the offensive could finally get a rhythm in upcoming games. This does require quarterback Joe Burrow to play at a higher level.
Who has been the biggest benefactor of Cooper Kupp’s injury? Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua. He finally hit the end zone in his latest game, but he’s now had three games with at least 119 receiving yards.
We imagine his production will drop when Kupp returns. However, he could end up being a solid second option if defenses are focusing on Kupp. He’s certainly worth considering as the offensive rookie of the year even as one of the current leaders.
Where to Bet on OPOY Odds
NFL Betting 101
Jumping into the wide world of sports betting can be tricky. While making mistakes can help you learn, errors when betting often result in losing money. No one wants to do that! So, before you get started on your sports betting journey, these pages may help you find answers to any questions you may have:
- Can you legally place a bet in your state?
- It may seem like a simple task, but you’ll wish you reviewed how to place a bet after you accidentally bet on the wrong team.
- Not all NFL betting sites are the same.
- NFL betting promos can boost your bankroll.
- Line shopping is something every bettor needs to understand.
- Questions about betting odds? Wonder what causes them to change?
- It helps to know what implied probability is and how to calculate it.
Our Tools page contains a lot of helpful information about several things.
For more betting help, see our How to Bet on NFL Games Online page.
Offensive Player of the Year Odds: History
Unlike the NFL MVP, quarterbacks have not dominated the OPOY. A QB has won the award 20 times, but 26 running backs have won it. Wide receivers have been on a tear, winning three of the last four but have won just six times (Jerry Rice won twice).
Two players have won OPOY three times: Earl Campbell (1978-80) and Marshall Faulk (1999-2001). Faulk and Campbell are also the only two to win it in back-to-back seasons. Six have won it twice: Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Tom Brady, Terrell Davis, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.
Of the winners, 28 also won the NFL MVP award in the same season. The last one to do so was Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Since 2010, its happened six times. A rookie has won OPOY before (Earl Campbell, 1978; he also won Offensive Rookie of the Year).
The following list contains the winners from 2010-22 with their preseason odds (when available) and relevant statistics. Players with an * by their name also won NFL MVP that season.
- 2022 – Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings +1200 (preseason odds); 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, seven touchdowns
- 2021 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams +8000 (preseason odds); 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns
- 2020 – Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans +2100 (preseason odds); 378 carries for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns
- 2019 – Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints; 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns
- 2018 – Patrick Mahomes*, QB, Kansas City Chiefs; 383-580 for 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, and 12 INTs
- 2017— Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams; 279 carries for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns; 64 receptions for 788 yards and 6 TDs
- 2016— Matt Ryan*, QB, Atlanta Falcons; 373-534 for 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, and 7 INTs
- 2015— Cam Newton*, QB, Carolina Panthers; 296-495 for 3,837 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs; 132 carries for 636 yards and 10 TDs (led team to 15 wins in the regular season)
- 2014— DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys; 392 carries for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns; 57 receptions for 416 yards
- 2013— Peyton Manning*, QB, Denver Broncos; 450-659 for 5,477 yards, 55 touchdowns, and 10 INTs
- 2012— Adrian Peterson*, RB, Minnesota Vikings; 348 carries for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns
- 2011— Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints; 468-657 for 5,476 yards, 46 TDs, and 14 INTs
- 2010— Tom Brady*, QB, New England Patriots; 324-492 for 3,900 yards, 36 TDs, and 4 INTs
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