NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 2024: McCaffrey, Jefferson Favored

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Let’s take a look at the early 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) odds. The following odds are from the top sports betting apps we recommend, with DraftKings the first to publish its odds. You can easily find a player you’re looking for by searching within the table.

 

NFL OPOY winners do not necessarily come from one of the best teams in the league. Only seven since the 2000 season have been on teams that made it to the Super Bowl, though the 2023 winner, San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, did reach Super Bowl 58. Only two winners were on the teams that won it (Cooper Kupp, Super Bowl 56; Marshall Faulk, Super Bowl 35).

Before placing a bet on 2024 Offensive Player of the Year odds, take a look at other sports betting promotions.

Odds to Win 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Players who break records or come close to doing so have the best chance of winning. McCaffrey is coming off a historic season with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns (rushing and receiving).

Recent winners Justin Jefferson (2022) and Cooper Kupp (2021) had a shot at breaking Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record. Derrick Henry (2020) became just the eighth player to rush for 2,000+ yards.

Michael Thomas (2019) broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record. Patrick Mahomes (2018) became the third quarterback to throw 50+ touchdowns in a season.

However, it is not necessarily enough to just set a record, hit a milestone, or come close to doing either. Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing record in 1984 with 2,105 yards but lost to Dan Marino, the first quarterback to throw for 5,000+ yards in a season.

NFL 2024 Offensive Player of the Year Betting Odds: Top Favorites

When choosing a player to put money on, bettors should look for someone capable of a historically significant season statistically. With the 2024 campaign well in the distance, here is a very early look at the favorites:

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey has been healthy since joining the 49ers early in the 2022 season, and as long as he’s available, he’ll be tough to beat for this award. No non-QB gets more touches week in and week out than CMC, and at only 27 years old, he has several years left in his prime role within an offense that prominently features him.

Tyreek Hill

Hill’s first and second seasons in Miami were both massive successes, and there’s no reason not to expect another massive year from the Dolphins’ speedster in 2024. He finished 2023 with league-leading yards, yards per game, and TD reception numbers (he tied with Mike Evans with 13), and only CeeDee Lamb had more receptions.

Hill is solid value given that the other favorites in this race (McCaffrey and Jefferson) have had more injury issues historically.

Justin Jefferson

The only reasons to doubt Jefferson have nothing to do with his talent. He has two huge questions to answer though:

  • Can he stay 100% healthy in 2024 after hamstring and chest injuries sidelined him for seven games a year ago?
  • Who will his QB be? It’s possible Kirk Cousins is back in Minnesota next season, but it’s far from a lock.

OPOY Odds: Dark Horses and Longshots

We’ll go deeper into the board and look at players with odds of +4000 or higher. Here are a few of our favorite picks here at the moment.

Josh Allen

Allen’s numbers in 2023 — including his 44 total touchdowns (29 passing, 15 rushing) — might have won him OPOY last season, but his team’s slow start, and his 18 interceptions, kept him out of contention. Given all he does for this offense, Allen has a real chance to win OPOY in 2024 — as long as he takes better care of the football.

Patrick Mahomes

How could we leave out the best QB in the league after what we just saw from him in the playoffs? Mahomes’ receivers (besides Travis Kelce) left a lot to be desired in ’23, but the Chiefs will almost certainly have better pass-catchers in ’24. As long as the skill players in Kansas City can avoid mistakes, Mahomes is more than capable of reclaiming this trophy for the first time since 2018. He’s far from a slam dunk — in fact, he’s a longshot if the Chiefs repeat the approach they relied on this year — but he’s still great value at the current price.

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NFL Betting 101

Jumping into the wide world of sports betting can be tricky. While making mistakes can help you learn, errors when betting often result in losing money. No one wants to do that! So, before you get started on your sports betting journey, these pages may help you find answers to any questions you may have:

Our Tools page contains a lot of helpful information about several things.

For more betting help, see our How to Bet on NFL Games Online page.

Offensive Player of the Year Odds: History

Unlike the NFL MVP, quarterbacks have not dominated the OPOY. A QB has won the award 20 times, but 26 running backs have won it. Wide receivers have been on a tear, winning three of the last four but have won just six times (Jerry Rice won twice).

Two players have won OPOY three times: Earl Campbell (1978-80) and Marshall Faulk (1999-2001). Faulk and Campbell are also the only two to win it in back-to-back seasons. Six have won it twice: Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Tom Brady, Terrell Davis, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.

Of the winners, 28 also won the NFL MVP award in the same season. The last one to do so was Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Since 2010, it has happened six times. A rookie has won OPOY before (Earl Campbell, 1978; he also won Offensive Rookie of the Year).

The following list contains the winners from 2010-22 with their preseason odds (when available) and relevant statistics. Players with an * by their name also won NFL MVP that season.

  • 2023 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers +1400 (preseason odds); 1,459 yards rushing, 564 receiving, 21 total touchdowns
  • 2022 – Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings +1200 (preseason odds); 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, seven touchdowns
  • 2021 – Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams +8000 (preseason odds); 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 touchdowns
  • 2020 – Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans +2100 (preseason odds); 378 carries for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns
  • 2019 – Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints; 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns
  • 2018 – Patrick Mahomes*, QB, Kansas City Chiefs; 383-580 for 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, and 12 INTs
  • 2017— Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams; 279 carries for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns; 64 receptions for 788 yards and 6 TDs
  • 2016— Matt Ryan*, QB, Atlanta Falcons; 373-534 for 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, and 7 INTs
  • 2015— Cam Newton*, QB, Carolina Panthers; 296-495 for 3,837 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs; 132 carries for 636 yards and 10 TDs (led team to 15 wins in the regular season)
  • 2014— DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys; 392 carries for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns; 57 receptions for 416 yards
  • 2013— Peyton Manning*, QB, Denver Broncos; 450-659 for 5,477 yards, 55 touchdowns, and 10 INTs
  • 2012— Adrian Peterson*, RB, Minnesota Vikings; 348 carries for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns
  • 2011— Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints; 468-657 for 5,476 yards, 46 TDs, and 14 INTs
  • 2010— Tom Brady*, QB, New England Patriots; 324-492 for 3,900 yards, 36 TDs, and 4 INTs

Read more: Super Bowl 59 odds | NFL MVP odds | Offensive Rookie of the Year odds | Coach of the Year odds | Defensive ROY odds | Odds to make 2024 NFL Playoffs

About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He has covered sports, sports betting, and the business of sports for several newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal.

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