Football season is upon us, and we’re here to help you cash a winning ticket with an NFL teaser pick for Week 1 of the 2022 season, using a theory constructed by Stanford Wong.
For the uninitiated, teasers allow you to move the point spread in your favor. But you have to have at least two legs (or outcomes) to cash your ticket. Think of it as a parlay with the ability to change the spread to your liking.
The most popular NFL teaser at sportsbooks is a two-team, 6-point teaser. You’re betting $12 to win $10 on these teasers, or $120 to win $100.
Critics will tell you these are sucker bets. To be sure, teasers and parlays are inherently harder to win, given you need multiple outcomes to be correct.
But Stanford Wong, the pen name for betting guru John Ferguson, devised a theory centered on 6-point teasers in the NFL that focuses exclusively on favorites laying -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs getting between +1.5 and +2.5. A Wong Teaser allows a bettor to cross through the most important “3” and “7” numbers on both legs of the bet. Some sportsbooks adjusted payouts, effectively shorting the prices, based on Wong’s initial success with these teasers.
Bettors are advised to shop around for sportsbooks that still offer -120 odds on two-team, 6-point teaser.
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Wong Teaser for Week 1 of NFL Season
Here are the teams that qualify as candidates for Wong Teasers in Week 1, per NFL odds as of Wednesday, Sept. 7.
- Rams +2.5
- Jaguars +2.5
- Browns +2
- Colts -7.5
- Vikings +1.5
- Cowboys +2.5
Resulting Wong Teaser Spreads:
- Rams +8.5
- Jaguars +8.5
- Browns +8.5
- Colts -1.5
- Vikings +7.5
- Cowboys +8.5
For the purposes of this piece, we focus on a two-team teaser using Indianapolis -1.5 over Houston, and Minnesota +7.5 over Green Bay.
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Indianapolis Colts -1.5 at Houston Texans
The Colts begin the Matt Ryan era against the NFL’s weakest team in the Texans. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor, who led the NFL in rushing yards and TDs last season, should run wild against Houston.
Here’s a freakish stat from last season: Taylor (1,818 rushing yards) outgained the entire Houston team on the ground (1,424 yards).
Marlon Mack, who served as backup to Taylor in Indy, came to Houston during the offseason. Mack was cut by the Texans, leaving rookie Dameon Pierce No. 1 on the depth chart.
To be fair, the fourth-round pick out of Florida looked good in the preseason, but the prospect of Pierce and veteran Rex Burkhead starting in the backfield along with QB Davis Mills isn’t sending shivers down anyone’s spine.
All we need for this Wong Teaser is Indianapolis to win by a safety. The Colts beat the Texans by scores of 31-3 and 31-0 last year.
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)
How sharp is your football memory? Remember when the Packers laid an egg in last year’s season opener, losing 38-3 to the New Orleans Saints? This being the NFL, overreaction Monday said the sky was falling and Green Bay was destined not to win another game all season. Rodgers then led the Packers to seven straight wins en route to another NFL MVP award.
We’ve crossed through the key number of “7” with the Vikings playing at home. Minnesota is loaded on offense with WRs Justin Jefferson (a prime candidate to be Offensive Player of the Year) and Adam Thielen. Then you have the dangerous Dalvin Cook to contend with out of the backfield. QB Kirk Cousins takes plenty of grief, but Cousins (4,221 passing yards) actually outperformed Rodgers (4,115 yards) through the air last season.
Meanwhile, Rodgers lost WRs Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling during the offseason. His No. 1 receiver per the team’s depth chart? Allen Lazard. That’s a scary proposition to start the season.
We’re already on record in saying that this is the year Minnesota unseats Green Bay as AFC North champion. That remains to be seen, but we’ll take the Vikings +7.5 over the Packers to (hopefully) help cash this Wong Teaser. There’s simply too much value to ignore here getting the better team and more than a touchdown in our favor.
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NFL Week 1 Wong Teaser: Colts (-1.5) and Vikings (+7.5)
As my colleague Marcus DiNitto wrote in this piece around last Christmas, we’re not to be confused with +EV handicappers. We cover and report on all things sports betting, but it’s also our aim to educate readers on different ways to attack NFL betting. For what it’s worth, the Christmas Day teaser DiNitto explored and wrote about last year cashed a winning ticket.