NFL Touchdown Scoring Props and Predictions: Bet These WRs and RBs

Betting odds are being offered on the top touchdown scorers during the 2022-23 NFL season at sportsbooks including FanDuel.

LA Rams WR Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 16 receiving TDs last season. Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor had a league-best 18 rushing TDs last year.

Let’s examine the betting markets for wide receivers and running backs with odds current as of Tuesday, Aug. 23, and offer some predictions on these season-longer player prop bets.

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Most Receiving Touchdowns — FanDuel Odds

Chalk Pick — Cooper Kupp (+700)

Kupp is coming off a Super Bowl 56 MVP performance, and he shows no signs of slowing down. Kupp captured the NFL’s Triple Crown last year by leading the league in catches (145), yards (1,947), and TDs (16).

The Rams brought former Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson II on board during the offseason. Robinson could siphon off some of Kupp’s production. But the presence of Robert Woods (now a Tennessee Titan), Odell Beckham Jr. (still a free agent,) and Van Jefferson did not deter Kupp’s output last season.

At +700, you’re getting decent value on Kupp. He’s become one of the NFL’s most elusive WRs while operating in LA’s high-octane offense. Fun fact: Matthew Stafford targeted Kupp an eye-popping 191 times last season. The next closest WR? Jefferson at 89.

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Value Play — Stefon Diggs (+1400)

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs finished tied for sixth in receiving TDs last year at 10. But the chemistry between Diggs and QB Josh Allen will only improve as time goes on.

Diggs is the headliner of Buffalo’s receiving corps. Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder occupy the No. 2 and No. 3 spots on the team’s current depth chart. Another thing working in Diggs’ favor? Cole Beasley (free agent) is no longer with Buffalo.

Diggs had a team-high 164 targets last season, and Beasley was next with 112. No other player had more than 100. If Diggs adds half of Beasley’s targets, we like his chances (at juicy +1400 odds!) to lead the NFL in scoring catches.

The Bills are again expected to have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. Buffalo averaged 28.4 points per game last year, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out: What is Your NFL Team’s Chance of Making the Playoffs?

Live Longshot — CeeDee Lamb (+2000)

CeeDee Lamb isn’t a huge longshot at +2000, but he’ll be the focal point of the Dallas Cowboys’ wide receiving corps after Amari Cooper left for the Cleveland Browns. Lamb led the Cowboys in targets (120), catches (79), and receiving yards (1,102) last year. But Cooper and TE Dalton Schultz tied with eight receiving TDs apiece while Lamb finished with six.

At No. 2 on the depth chart, fellow Cowboys WR Michael Gallup is recovering from an ACL injury and is still listed as “out” as of this writing. Rookie WR Jaren Tolbert, the No. 8 pick in this year’s NFL Draft, is listed at No. 3. Schultz is still in the mix at TE, but Lamb will be the unquestioned No. 1 WR option for QB Dak Prescott this season.

The Cowboys led the league in scoring with 31.2 points per game last year. Expect Lamb to get the lion’s share of targets again and more TDs with Cooper moving on to the Browns.

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Most Rushing Touchdowns — FanDuel Odds

Chalk Pick — Derrick Henry (+700)

Derrick Henry was running away with the NFL’s rushing title before breaking a bone in his foot last year. He was limited to eight games but still ended up with 937 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. Imagine if King Henry had played a full season.

Tennessee will rely on Henry’s legs again during the 2022-23 season and he is the betting favorite to become the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. The Titans jettisoned WR Julio Jones off to Tampa Bay after trading their top wideout A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. Robert Woods, after winning Super Bowl 56 with the Rams, is the only known quantity among receivers on Tennessee’s roster.

That means the running game will be pivotal in the Titans’ continued success. You’re not getting the worst value here either at +700. Take this one to Bank of America, Wells Fargo, or wherever your checking account is stationed.

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Value Play — Christian McCaffrey* (+1600)

Let’s get to the * right away. This value-laden pick is predicated on CMC playing a full season, something he’s failed to do the last two years. What happened the last time McCaffrey suited up for 16 games (now 17 games)? It was 2019 and he finished with 15 rushing TDs, narrowly missing out on the league lead shared by Henry and Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones.

McCaffrey is the catalyst for Carolina’s offense. The Panthers might have been guilty of overusing the pinball-like RB early in his career. He’s still just 26 years old. If he can stay healthy for a full season and maintain an elevated workload, McCaffrey will have a chance to lead the NFL in rushing TDs.

Live Longshot — Cam Akers (+4000)

Akers did the previously unthinkable last year by returning from an Achilles injury after only seven months. He helped the Rams make their playoff push and ultimately win Super Bowl 56.

The good news — for the purposes of this bet — is that Akers is expected to become LA’s primary running back this season. The Rams do have an aggressive aerial attack led by Stafford, so we’re treading carefully out on the limb here with Akers.

Operating as the workload running back in LA and with Darrell Henderson yielding the bulk of carries to him, Akers has a good chance to feast in the red zone this year. He’s worth a sawbuck or two at +4000 odds.

More NFL Futures Betting Markets

Check out our live Super Bowl 57 odds page. Here are some additional futures markets you might be interested in:

• At DraftKings, the Bills and Bucs head into the season with the highest season win totals at 11.5. What teams go Over their season win total during the upcoming NFL season? Be careful with the Dallas Cowboys. DraftKings enticed Dallas backers by putting up 10 wins and -110 on the over. The Cowboys were 12-5 last season, but it had been five years since they last eclipsed 10 wins.
• What are your favorite team’s chances of making the NFL playoffs? Check out odds for all 32 teams here.
• The Bills are favored to win the conference, but the Chiefs and Raiders offer much better value in AFC odds. Las Vegas could be this year’s version of the Cincinnati Bengals.
• In the NFC, fade the Bucs and Packers to win the conference this year. The Rams are a better bet to repeat as NFC champions, and the Eagles are worth a wager at juicy odds.

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