At the beginning of the season, I shared some of my favorite tips and strategies for betting NFL games. Each week, we’ll revisit those concepts and make a few picks based on those strategies. After three exciting weeks of football, we’re back at it for NFL Week 4.
Here are my NFL Week 4 betting tips and strategies.
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NFL Week 4 Underdogs
My favorite bet this week covers a number of basic NFL betting strategies I outlined at the beginning of the season.
Target Underdogs? Check.
Locking in a key number? Check.
Shop for the best line? Done.
Fade the betting public? Yes!
Jacksonville JAGUARS +7 vs. Philadelphia EAGLES
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a 38-10 thrashing of the Los Angeles Chargers. Trevor Lawrence and company were the highest scoring team in Week 3, and have held their opponents to a combined 10 points in their past two games. Yet, somehow the Jaguars are a full touchdown underdog to the Eagles?
This is a classic case of sportsbooks bracing for lopsided action. The Eagles are one of the most popular franchises in football, and Philly fans are nuts for their sports teams. Sportsbooks have inflated this line to offset the sheer volume of bets that are likely to pour in on the Eagles.
That’s why we’re grabbing Jaguars +7.
The Eagles SHOULD be favored here. Jalen Hurts is putting up silly numbers; his current tally of 1,083 total yards would rank him 10th in NFL team offense this season. You read that correctly. Jalen Hurts ranks 10th in total offense amongst all 32 NFL franchises. He’s single- handedly been more productive than 22 NFL teams through three weeks!
But laying seven points against the Jaguars is too much. The Eagles have been extremely streaky, failing to score in the second half in back-to-back weeks, and have exactly ZERO fourth-quarter points this season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars on the other hand? After a decade of truly miserable football, most bettors have learned to avoid the Jaguars at all costs. But this team looks GOOD this year. After the departure of the World’s Worst NFL Coach, Urban Meyer, the Jaguars are playing inspired football. Lawrence continues to improve in his second year, and this could be the last week we get betting value on the Jaguars.
If the Jaguars keep it competitive against the 3-0 Eagles, bettors will take notice, and we’ll never get them at +7 again. I’m taking advantage of the opportunity this week.
BONUS BETS: Jaguars to win Super Bowl +6000, Trevor Lawrence NFL MVP +4000
NFL Week 4 Unders
Another strategy for betting NFL games is hunting for Unders. The betting public tends to root for points, so sportsbooks skew Totals a point or two towards the Over. That leaves plenty of value for targeting Unders.
So far this season, targeting NFL Unders has been extremely profitable. Through three weeks, NFL Unders are 30-18, hitting at an impressive 62.5% rate. A $100 bettor who wagered each Under through three weeks would be up roughly $1,020 so far this season.
Not bad at all!
At first glance, the NFL Week 4 totals have corrected slightly to the downside. Still, we look at two games showing betting value this week.
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New York JETS vs. Pittsburgh STEELERS – Under 41.5 Points
This matchup features two struggling offenses.
The Jets rank 24th, and the Steelers rank 30th in yards per play on offense this NFL season. These teams have combined to go 4-2 to the Under this season, and bettors who grabbed Under the opening number of 40.5 suffered a brutal beat in the Steelers-Browns game last Thursday night.
The talent pool isn’t too deep here. Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky remain fill-in quarterbacks for their team’s younger stars and have looked equally unimpressive. Both teams are averaging less than 17 points/game, and aside from the two-minute flurry from the Jets to steal a win in Cleveland in Week 2, there hasn’t been anything exciting happening with either franchise.
When two bad teams face off, grabbing the Under is a profitable spot.
Arizona CARDINALS vs. Carolina PANTHERS – Under 44 Points
Another consideration when hunting for Unders is bad weather.
With the number of tropical storms making their way up the East Coast, the Panthers’ Bank of America Stadium is going to get soaked with rain. It also looks like heavy winds could still be a factor on Sunday afternoon. Come game time, the playing field will have taken on about six inches of rain between Friday morning and game time. It will be tough for either team to move the ball effectively, so expect a slopfest in Charlotte this weekend.
This total opened 46 and has already been adjusted down to 44. As the betting market becomes aware of the conditions, I imagine it keeps dropping up until game time. Anyone looking to bet the Under here should grab this number sooner than later.
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NFL Week 4 Teasers
Teasers can be negative expectation wagers if you don’t use them properly. The three unbreakable rules of teasers are:
- Always Cross Two Important Numbers
- Never Cross Zero
- Never Tease Totals
The best six-point teasers include 7.5- to 8.5-point favorite that gets teased down to -1.5 to -2.5. Likewise, teasing a +1.5 to +2.5 underdog up to a +7.5 or +8.5 is what you want. In both instances, we’re crossing key numbers of 3 and 7.
We’ve seen a rising trend of NFL underdogs outperforming expectations through the first few weeks of the season. This is particular rough news for anyone who’s been teasing favorites down to the moneyline. Heavy favorites have been dropping like flies. That’s why I’m teasing two short underdogs up through the key numbers of 3 and 7, instead of teasing the favorite down.
Los Angeles RAMS (+8.5) vs. San Francisco 49ERS
Cleveland BROWNS vs. Atlanta FALCONS (+8.5)
The Rams are capable of winning this matchup against the 49ers outright. The 49ers did not look sharp in their Sunday Night Football loss to the Broncos. This line opened at -1 and bettors pushed it to -2.5 as money came in on the 49ers. Bettors know the Rams are banged up, but the loss of Trent Williams for the 49ers is a major concern. Their offense couldn’t move the ball effectively against the Broncos. Without Williams in the lineup, look for the 49ers to struggle against the Rams as well.
The Falcons on the other hand? Is it possible they’re the most exciting team in football? The trio of Marcus Mariota, Drake London, and Cordarrelle Patterson have been incredibly entertaining to watch. After notching their first win of the season, the Falcons will be fired up at home and should keep it close against this run-heavy Browns offense.
I like both teams to win outright, but the point spreads make this a perfect spot for a teaser.