Another NFL Survivor Week. Another NFL Survivor bloodbath. NOT FOR US! We absolutely crushed Week 3, and we’re back with our NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks.
We played our NFL Survivor Picks PERFECTLY last week by avoiding the two biggest eliminations of NFL Week 3. The Kansas City Chiefs were the biggest liability, with roughly 25% of pool participants picking to beat the Indianapolis Colts. And while the LA Chargers didn’t have quite as many tickets as predicted, they still wiped out the 10% or so of tickets that backed them over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But the Cincinnati Bengals? Our NFL Survivor Pick last week? Never in doubt! They cruised to victory against the hapless New York Jets.
Overall, roughly 35% of NFL Survivor tickets were eliminated in Week 3. Through three weeks, close to 80% of NFL Survivor tickets have already been wiped out.
If you’re one of the lucky ones still alive in your NFL Survivor Pool, read on! Let’s try and repeat last week’s success with our NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks.
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NFL Survivor Strategies Recap
There are two basic strategies to consider when making your NFL Survivor picks.
Strategy #1 – Survive And Advance
This strategy is simple. Take the best team available and hope they win.
This is an excellent strategy to use in office pools. Against a small number of entrants, there isn’t as much value in making contrarian picks.
Strategy #2 – Contrarian Picks With Value
For larger pools, more thinking is required. Simply picking the heaviest favorite each week isn’t going to cut it when you’re trying to outlast up to a thousand opponents.
Your goal should be to target less popular options that are strong favorites.
As we enter NFL Week 4, there is less value now in implementing Strategy #2. This year has seen the most eliminations in NFL Survivor history through three weeks. As these pools lose players, the more emphasis you should place on Strategy #1 – Survive and Advance.
Let’s take a look at our NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks.
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NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks To Avoid
Los Angeles Chargers
We avoided elimination last week by steering clear of the Chargers, and we’re doing it again. Justin Herbert did not look good in the Chargers’ Week 3 loss to the Jaguars. I guess that’s what happens when you take a pain-killing injection straight to the rib cage before game time.
What’s more troubling is how long head coach Brandon Staley allowed him to stay in the game. With the Chargers down 38-10 in the fourth quarter, Staley opted to leave his star quarterback in the game through the final series. Down four touchdowns, Staley not only kept Herbert in the game but called 14 passing plays on the Chargers’ final drive. It was an extremely questionable coaching decision.
Without adequate rest, Herbert remains a question mark against the Texans. The Chargers can’t afford to lose more players. On top of Herbert, the Chargers have other key injuries to watch.
This is not the week to use the Chargers as your NFL Survivor pick. A game against the Terrible Texans feels like a layup, but better to save them for when Herbert and company are 100% healthy.
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The Eagles are going to be a popular pick this week, and it’s easy to see why. Jalen Hurts is putting up monster numbers, and impressive wins against the Vikings and Commanders have Eagles fans ready to crown themselves Super Bowl Champions. However, I’m not convinced this is the best time to use them.
Earlier this week, I wrote about the Jacksonville Jaguars being one of my favorite NFL Week 4 bets. This team has a ton of talent and is my Super Bowl sleeper candidate. They aren’t the miserable team they were under Urban Meyer, but a decade of football misery has left a stink on the franchise.
These Jaguars are GOOD! They’ve held their opponents to 10 points combined across the last two games, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is finally showing the potential we expected of him out of college. Running back James Robinson (no relation!) is having a great season, and it seems as though the entire team is having a lot of fun under new coach Doug Pederson.
The Eagles are 3-0, but have been shut out in the second half of their last two games. They’ve also failed to score a single point during the fourth quarter this season. If they take their foot off the gas pedal against this scrappy Jaguars team, and they could lose the game outright at home.
The Eagles will be a great option in five of the next six weeks, with upcoming games against the Cardinals, Cowboys, Steelers, Texans, and Commanders. No need to use them this week.
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NFL Week 4 Survivor Contenders
The Safe Pick: Green Bay Packers
We used the Packers as one of our NFL Week 2 picks, but if you still have them available, it’s a great week to use them. They face the New England Patriots without starting quarterback Mac Jones. Going up against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau with Brian Hoyer? And that top-five Packers defense? This is a pretty safe pick.
It’s usually best to avoid the most popular pick each week, and the Packers are likely to get 50% of the tickets this week. But with close to 80% of NFL Survivor entrants already eliminated through three weeks, it’s not a terrible idea to play safe this week.
This is a solid option if you have it available.
The Ugly Pick: Detroit Lions
Anyone planning ahead beyond NFL Week 4 might be tempted to take a shot on the Detroit Lions.
If you have ANY interest in using the Lions at all this season, this is the week to do it. This team is unlikely to be favored again until their Week 17 matchup against the Bears. Depending on how the NFC North shakes out, that game might not even matter.
If you have multiple NFL Survivor entries, this matchup is worth a pick. The Lions can put up a ton of points, and the Seahawks haven’t looked impressive. It’s not the most original idea, as close to 15% of tickets will be backing the Lions here.
I don’t love it … but I don’t hate it.
The Risky Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings face the New Orleans Saints in London on Sunday morning.
The Vikings are a better football team, with a better record, and have faced tougher competition than the Saints through three weeks. Their wins against the Packers and Lions were impressive, while the Saints have looked lost against a less-than-healthy Bucs team and mediocre Panthers squad. Their lone win came against a Falcons team that blew it down the stretch.
The Saints are dealing with a number of brutal injuries. QB Jameis Winston could miss this game with a lingering back injury, and both Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill have been taking snaps in practice. Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jarvis Landry are all dealing with injuries as well. This does not bode well for a Saints offense that has struggled to put up points.
The lone bright spot for the Saints has been their pass defense, holding opponents to 183 yards per game. But Kirk Cousins and the weapons at his disposal are a step up in competition. Cousins will find ways to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and beat this Saints secondary. The Vikings will also be able to exploit the Saints rush defense, ranked 27th in the league, by running the ball and controlling the clock.
It’s true, the Vikings play the Bears next week, but that matchup doesn’t show as much future value as this week does. Week 5 is wide open with options; the Bills, Packers, Bucs, Chiefs, and Rams are all listed as more than a touchdown favorite.
With less than 1% of entrants taking the Vikings this week, it’s a sneaky contrarian play with some upside. If you have multiple entries, this is a great week to spread them out. Hopefully before the 1 p.m. ET games start, this ticket will have safely advanced to Week 5.