Heading into NFL Week 9, let’s revisit some of the key concepts I outlined at the beginning of the season. We’ve been using these betting tips and strategies to make our weekly picks, with the hopes of winning a truck full of money by the end of the season.
Through eight weeks, we’ve turned a modest profit by utilizing these betting tips and strategies I outlined in my pre-season betting guide. We went 2-1 last week, only adding to our tally through the first half of the season. And while the truck isn’t full of money just yet, we probably have enough to stuff the glove compartment with singles.
Let’s take a look at some NFL Week 9 betting tips and strategies.
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NFL Week 9: Time to Protect the Bankroll
This NFL season has been full of profitable betting angles. So much so that it’s been a while since we’ve had to mention the Golden Rule of sports betting: Protect your bankroll.
More money is lost in sports betting by being impatient than by anything else. More often than not, it’s correct to simply not bet at all!
As mentioned, anyone following our weekly picks (assuming you’ve used proper bankroll management!) should have a modest profit going into NFL Week 9. Both Underdogs and Unders have been hitting at a historic clip, two strategies that have been the primary focus of our betting picks.
Looking at the NFL Week 9 slate of games, it’s the first week of the season that doesn’t show a ton of value to me. Which is fine! Some weeks are easier to handicap than others. I’m not going to force a bet just because there’s a game being played.
There are three games, however, that stand out as complete stayaways. They’ll be the most tempting games for recreational bettors since the talent disparity is huge, but I’d steer clear of…
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NFL Week 9: Three Heavy Favorites To Avoid
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) vs. Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills (-13) vs. New York Jets
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
The three biggest favorites on the board are, not surprisingly, the three best teams in the NFL.
The Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs are double-digit favorites in a fairly mediocre slate of NFL Week 9 games. These three teams rank 1-2-3 in scoring offenses so far this NFL season. Against inferior opponents, these offenses should feast come Sunday. It can be tempting to bet heavy favorites when there isn’t much else on the slate, but be careful. Considering the impressive clip at which underdogs have been hitting this year, take a breath before making these bets.
Each of these three point spreads were in the single digits in last week’s lookahead line. Over the course of the weekend, these betting lines jumped almost five points apiece! When a line moves that much, it’s often correct to bet the other way. However, in a season plagued with mediocre football, these three teams have separated themselves from the pack. I’m in no rush to bet any of them as two-touchdown favorites, but it’s equally ill-advised to stand in front of a surging locomotive.
All said, these spreads are huge. We’ve enjoyed a profitable season by avoiding heavy favorites and being selective with which games we bet. I see no reason to change course this week. Not a terrible strategy to pass on these ones.
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NFL Week 9: An Underdog To Consider
Speaking of profitable underdogs, might I interest you in the…
Seattle Seahawks (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The betting market continues to misprice the Seattle Seahawks based on their dismal pre-season expectations. But they’re good! They’re actually GOOD!
The Seahawks boast the fourth-best offense in the NFL, behind only the three juggernauts listed above. Not just that, but Seattle finds itself atop the NFC West division through eight weeks. All of a sudden Geno Smith, the Artist Formerly Known as the New York Jet Who Got Suckerpunced by a Teammate and Suffered a Broken Jaw, is somehow a fringe MVP candidate! Head coach Pete Carroll looks like a genius for unloading Russell Wilson to the Broncos, and these Seahawks are a legitimate contender in the NFC.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: Geno Smith among the favorites for CPOY
The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, have not looked good. Their offense ranks statistically average but has looked lost for large stretches of the season. Kyler Murray has made as many poor throws as he’s had flashes of last-minute brilliance to steal a few wins. Kliff Kingsbury continues to make dumb coaching decisions, and this Cardinals defense has allowed close to 27 points per game, near dead last in the NFL.
Yet, somehow, these 3-5 Cardinals opened as a three-point favorite? Against the 5-3 Seahawks who beat them 19-9 just two weeks ago?
I grabbed the Seahawks at +3 when this line opened. I make Seattle a slight favorite, so grab as many points as you can. This line will flip before kickoff.
BONUS BET: Seahawks to win NFC West (+500), Seahawks to make playoffs (YES +130)