The UFC has made another breakthrough in the MMA world, as the promotion hosts its first-ever event in France on Sept. 3. Two of the top four-ranked fighters square off against each other at UFC Paris, which sports bettors can wager on using top-rated betting apps. Here’s a look at UFC Paris odds and props.
The main event features a heavyweight contest between top-ranked former UFC Heavyweight Interim Champion Cyril “Bon Gamin” Gane and third-ranked brawler Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa. Gane – priced between -540 and -720 on the moneyline – lays chalk against Tuivasa, who is priced between +400 and +450 in what should be a brutal striking exchange.
UFC Paris Main Event Odds: Gane vs. Tuivasa
UFC · Sat (9/3) @ 3:00 pm ET
|Accor Arena, Paris, FR|
UFC Fight Night 209 Betting Card
Bettors have been hammering Gane’s odds since betting lines opened up in April. The Frenchman opened as a 3/1 favorite, and his price is now as short as -720 on FanDuel. He faces the second shortest average odds of his career and has been the chalk in all of his nine UFC matches.
Meanwhile, Tuivasa’s price hovered around +250 when the market first opened and can now be grabbed for as long as +450 on FanDuel. This marks the longest odds of Bam Bam’s entire MMA career. The now-second longest odds he’s ever faced was in his most recent contest against Derrick Lewis when he closed at as long as +200.
A high-stakes middleweight bout between former UFC Middleweight Champion Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker and former UFC Middleweight title challenger Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori takes the co-main slot. Originally booked for UFC 275 last June, Whittaker – priced between -220 and -245 – is a moderate favorite against Vettori, who is priced between +180 and +195 in Paris.
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Fighting action starts with the prelims at 12 p.m. ET and progresses into the main card beginning at 3 p.m. ET. Fans and bettors can watch the whole card on ESPN+.
Gane Looks to Rebound From Failed UFC Title Bid
Gane’s French nickname “Bon Gamin” translates to “good kid” in English because he’s normally a calm fighter who doesn’t talk smack outside of the octagon. Inside of the octagon, however, he’s a dangerous 247-pound multi-dimensional fighter who wreaks havoc on anyone who gets trapped inside with him.
A former Heavyweight Champion in the Canadian MMA promotion TKO, Gane (10-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC) quickly shot up the UFC Heavyweight rankings after edging his first eight opponents.
The Frenchman earned his first championship appearance in 2021, knocking out Derrick Lewis at UFC 265 as a slight underdog to become the interim champion. In an effort to become the undisputed heavyweight champion, Gane faced and lost to heavyweight king Francis Ngannou at UFC 270, putting an end to his 10-fight win streak and reverting back to contender status.
Despite failing to capture the strap, Bon Gamin is still the number one-ranked heavyweight contender and is heavily favored to pick up a win against a quality opponent in Tuivasa in front of his home crowd.
Red-Hot Tuivasa Hopes for Puncher’s Chance
Tuivasa (15-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) stepped into the MMA scene with his hands clenched and swinging. The 29-year-old power puncher put his first eight opponents to sleep — all inside the first round.
That’s when Bam Bam suffered his three career losses — all in succession and in the UFC. But the Aussie striker stood tall by knocking out his next five opponents, capped by a second-round knockout win over the durable Lewis in his last outing.
With four Performance of the Night bonuses and a 93% finish rate in his wins, Tuivasa is a true showman who deserves to sit atop of the division. A win over a guy like Gane as a massive underdog may put him next in line to challenge Ngannou for the 265-pound belt.
UFC Fight Night on ESPN: Gane vs. Tuivasa Props
Sportsbooks have unveiled a wide selection of prop lines for the event headliner. Like with any other sporting event, it’s important to shop around the betting market for the best odds.
Method of Victory
Gane by submission: +650 (FanDuel)
Gane by KO/TKO/DQ: +120 (DraftKings)
Gane by decision: +270 (FanDuel)
Tuivasa by submission: +4100 (FanDuel)
Tuivasa by KO/TKO/DQ: +700 (FanDuel)
Tuivasa by decision: +1600 (FanDuel)
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2.5 (Over -125 (DraftKings), Under -102 (FanDuel))
Note: 2:30 minute mark of each round indicates the ‘half-round’ for under/over bets. For example, if you bet on Over 2.5 rounds, the fight would have to exceed the 2:30 minute mark of the third round for you to win.
Alternate Total Rounds (DraftKings)
0.5 (O -1100, U +550)
1.5 (O -225, U +165)
3.5 (O +115, U -155)
4.5 (O +160, U -215)
Will Fight Go the Distance?
Yes (+230, FanDuel)
No (-250, DraftKings)
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Gane vs. Tuivasa Betting Picks
Moneyline: Gane (-540, DraftKings)
Gane and Tuivasa are two of the best strikers in the division, but what makes this matchup so intriguing is that each fighter strikes in different ways. Gane is a much more technical striker who waits for the right time to land a shot while also defending strikes at a high clip (62% significant strikes defense). Tuivasa, on the other hand, is a swarmer who loves going after his opponents and laying constant pressure.
As devastating as Tuivasa is at landing hard punches, Gane’s strong chin has allowed him to handle the hardest strikes the world has ever seen. He outstruck Ngannou, who holds the record for the hardest punch ever landed, in his last fight.
Laying over 5-to-1 odds to back Gane may seem risky and foolish, but when you consider the fighting styles of these two heavyweights, it’s no wonder why Gane is such an overwhelming favorite.
Total Rounds: Over 2.5 (-125, DraftKings)
Each of the Frenchman’s past four fights — and six of his past seven — have reached the 2:30 mark of the third round or beyond. Whether he finishes his opponents or lets the judges do the talking, Gane is comfortable dragging fights out a couple of extra rounds because his stamina is superb.
Given that this is Tuisava’s first five-round fight, he lacks championship-round experience, which could cost him against a conditioned fighter like Gane. With a six-inch reach advantage, Gane should have no problem keeping the fight at a distance and slowing the pace down enough to surpass the halfway point of the third round.
Best Bet: Gane By Submission (+650, FanDuel)
Tuivasa doesn’t have a ground game whatsoever, which should trouble him if Gane wisely decides to take him down. Now, the Frenchman isn’t the best wrestler either, but he’s much more agile than the Aussie and does have three wins by submission.
It’s also important to note that Tuivasa was submitted once back in 2019, and he doesn’t have the best stamina. Gane should look to tire the 29-year-old out with some wrestling before attempting a submission in the championship rounds to pick up the victory.
It’s likely that Gane opts to finish Tuivasa with his fists or to have the scorecards decide, but +650 odds is too valuable when you look at the 32-year-old’s edges in grappling, agility, and conditioning.