UFC Vegas 59 Odds, Props, & Picks: Santos vs. Hill Headlines at the Apex

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The UFC returns home to its favorite arena – the Apex in Las Vegas – for an action-packed Fight Night event on Saturday, August 6. UFC Vegas 59 caps off with a light heavyweight bout between Thiago “Marreta” Santos and Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill.

Hill – priced between -265 and -300 on the moneyline – looks to take a big leap forward in the division with a win. Santos – priced between +215 and +240 – looks to maintain his high rank among 205-pounders. Odds range between different sportsbooks, so it’s important for bettors to shop around the betting market for the best prices for your wagers.

UFC Fight Night Odds: Santos vs. Hill

Thiago Sntos vs Jamahal Hill Odds UFC Odds

UFC · Sat (8/6) @ 10:00 pm ET

Thiago Sntos at Jamahal Hill
UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

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Saturday’s UFC on ESPN Betting Card

The co-main event features welterweight contenders Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque and Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal. Sixth-ranked Luque lays odds between -170 and -186, while 13th-ranked Neal is priced between +144 and +150.

Fans and bettors also get to witness the season finale of The Ultimate Fighter. Mohammed Usman – brother of champion Kamaru Usman – and Zac Pauga clash in the TUF heavyweight championship bout, while Brogan Walker-Sanchez and Juliana Miller face off in the women’s flyweight tournament bracket.

The main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+. Fans and bettors can catch the undercard starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

ufc odds, thiago santos
Thiago Santos is priced as the underdov vs. Jamahal Hill in UFC Vegas 59 odds (AP Photo/Eric Jamison)

Here we break down the odds for the card’s top fights.

Brittle Santos on Thin Ice in Division

Thiago Santos (22-10 MMA; 14-9 UFC) joined the UFC in 2013, and quickly became one of the scariest knockout artists around. Marreta – meaning “sledgehammer” in Portuguese – is a black belt in Muay Thai and has 15 KO/TKO wins to his name.

A former middleweight (10-5 in the division in UFC), the Brazilian beefed up to the light heavyweight division in 2018, where he reached a higher level. He won his first three matches at 205 pounds and then challenged Jon Jones for the strap. After handing Jones his first split decision, Santos lost the epic bout and sustained ACL, PCL, MCL, and meniscus tears, along with a cracked tibia, in the process. It’s been all downhill for Marreta since, having lost three of his last four fights.

The 38-year-old’s prime, title-challenging days are in the rearview mirror, and he desperately needs a win to stay near the top of the division.

Surging Hill Knocking on Door to Stardom

Jamahal Hill (10-1 MMA; 5-1, 1 NC UFC) is in a completely different position than Santos. The Chicago native turned pro in 2017 and reached the UFC stage two years later.

The prolific striker has just one defeat in six UFC bouts. The sole loss came against Brazilian jiu-jitsu star Paul Craig at UFC 263 after getting caught in an early grapple and suffering a broken arm. Unlike Santos, though, Sweet Dreams followed his defeat and sustained injuries up with back-to-back first-round KO/TKO wins over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker.

The 31-year-old has four knockouts in the UFC – five if not for an overturned TKO win against Klidson Abreu in 2020. Taking down a former light heavyweight title challenger in Santos would surely bump the 10th-ranked 205-pounder up the division rankings.

Santos vs. Hill Props (DraftKings)

Method of Victory
Santos by submission (+1700)
Santos by KO/TKO/DQ (+400)
Santos by decision (+700)
Hill by submission (+800)
Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Hill by decision (+550)

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Total Rounds
2.5 (ov +135, un -165)

Note: 2:30 min mark of each round indicates the ‘half-round’ for under/over bets. For example, if you bet on Over 2.5 rounds, the fight would have to exceed the 2:30 min mark of the third round for you to win.

Alternate Total Rounds
0.5 (ov -800, un +450)
1.5 (ov -160, un +120)
3.5 (ov +180, un -250)
4.5 (ov +235, un -330)

Santos vs. Hill Betting Picks

Moneyline: Hill (-275, BetMGM)

If this was 2019, then I would ride with Santos and wouldn’t look back. But we’re in 2022, and Santos is clearly not what he once was. Meanwhile, Hill is younger, healthier, and the better of the two strikers.

There isn’t much value in taking Hill’s moneyline, but Sweet Dreams is simply much better than Santos at this stage of their careers. As long as he can keep the fight standing, then he’ll be able to scare the Brazilian with constant pressure on the way to a victory.

Total Rounds: Over 2.5 (+135, DraftKings)

Santos is a gritty fighter who’s able to keep fights alive with sheer willpower, resulting in him having the longest average fight time in UFC light heavyweight history. The Brazilian has a tough chin and will be able to survive past the 2.5 rounds needed to hit the Over.

Best Bet: Hill By Decision (+550, DraftKings)

Sure, you can grab Hill to knock out Santos, but you’re going to have to lay some odds (-150). For a much better value play, take the American to win by points.

Hill has finished five of his six UFC fights, he also has three other decisions in other promotions. He’s a volume striker who will look for the finish against Santos, but the latter still hasn’t lost by knockout since 2016, and four of Marreta’s last five matches have gone the distance.

UFC Vegas 59 Co-Main Event: Luque vs. Neal Odds

A pair of welterweight contenders battle it out for better positioning in the division rankings this Saturday. Luque backers can lay -190 odds at DraftKings, and BetMGM. Bettors in Neal’s corner can grab the underdog for as long as +160 at DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook.

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Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal Odds UFC Odds

UFC · Sat (8/6) @ 10:00 pm ET

Vicente Luque at Geoff Neal
UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

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Luque, Neal to Prove Themselves Against Ranked Opponent

Luque Can Beat You in Multiple Ways

Vicente Luque (21-8-1 MMA; 14-4 UFC) was enjoying a four-fight finish streak, before losing to Belal Muhammad in his last outing. 

The Silent Assassin is a balanced fighter who likes to mix up his methods of victory – 11 KO/TKOs and eight submissions. He’s a vicious striker, but knows when to turn to his BJJ ways when facing purely stand-up strikers. His flashy style makes him an exciting draw for bettors, who can count on the Brazilian to deliver a finish. In fact, Luque’s 13 finishes in the UFC are the second most in UFC Welterweight division history.

Beating a ranked fighter in Neal is a great opportunity for the Silent Assassin to bounce back from his loss to Muhammad nearly four months ago.

Neal Eyes Second Straight Victory

Meanwhile, Geoff Neal (14-4 MMA; 7-2 UFC) is just starting to understand the high level of competition in the UFC. The American began his UFC tenure with six wins – five finishes – before running into a pair of ranked 170-pounders in Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. He lost to both men one after the other, but got back on the winning track by picking apart Santiago Ponzinibbio in his latest showcase.

About the Author
Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Sports Betting Writer
Cyrus Eshaghoff is a New York-based sports writer. Whether it's heated debates or uncovering statistical insights, he loves discussing sports. Check out his Twitter account (@CyrusEshaghoff).

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