Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Odds & Prediction: Target the Total in UNC’s ACC Opener

It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached Week 5 of the college football season, but there are some clear trends on display after the first month of play. One of those plays heavily into Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina betting odds ahead of Saturday’s game.

The ACC Network will have live coverage of Saturday’s game from Kenan Stadium starting at 3:30 p.m. ET. Here is a look at Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina odds and a prediction.

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Betting Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline

Here are live odds from around the betting market as the Hokies visit the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC.

The Tar Heels (-9) were a sizable favorite at DraftKings with a total of 51.5 as of this writing.

Virginia Tech Hokies (2-2 overall, 1-3 against the spread)

Brent Pry is in his first year as head coach at Virginia Tech, and he inherited a team that has difficulty putting up points. The Hokies are ranked 113th out of 131 FBS teams when it comes to points per game at 20.3.

That has helped set the bar extremely low for this game’s total at 51.5. Virginia Tech’s Achilles heel is an offensive line that fails to create running lanes. The Hokies check in as the second worst team in the ACC with an average of just 112 yards on the ground per game. Only Boston College’s rushing attack is worse.

Starting QB Grant Wells is also in his first season at Virginia Tech after transferring from Marshall. Due to their continued inability to run the ball, look for the Hokies to become somewhat one-dimensional against North Carolina.

Virginia Tech has also proven to be an undisciplined team through four games. The Hokies have had two games featuring 15 penalties including last week’s 33-10 loss to West Virginia.

With Virginia Tech’s offense sputtering, the Hokies have also displayed an inability to stop the run. West Virginia gouged them for 218 rushing yards last weekend.

Saturday’s game at North Carolina marks the beginning of a difficult schedule over the next month with Pitt, Miami, and NC State to follow. If there’s a silver lining here for the Hokies, they are facing a UNC defense that makes bad offenses look better.

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North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1 overall, 2-2 ATS)

UNC stepped up in class last weekend against Notre Dame and got blitzed, 45-32. Like Virginia Tech, the Fighting Irish came into that game struggling on offense. Notre Dame amassed 576 total yards on offense against North Carolina’s porous defense.

We referenced trends earlier, and there is a disturbing pattern developing for UNC backers. The Tar Heels rank dead last in the ACC in total yards allowed (495.3 per game) and points allowed (39.5 per game).

Conversely, North Carolina’s offense averages 46.5 points per game to lead all ACC teams. QB Drake Maye threw for more than 300 yards and five TDs in the loss to Notre Dame.

UNC has no problem scoring but it bends and breaks defensively regardless of the opponent. The telltale sign came in the fourth quarter of UNC’s 63-61 win at Appalachian State when the Mountaineers scored 40 points in the fourth quarter. Maye’s late-game heroics helped the Tar Heels win that game, but the defense has proven to be vulnerable ever since.

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Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Prediction

As mentioned, this total is lower due to Virginia Tech’s inability to score so far. The antidote for the Hokies will be a UNC defense that just keeps on giving. For the second straight week, we’re staying away from the side and again looking to profit on the total. This is a play against North Carolina’s defense, and until proven otherwise, we’ll look to take advantage of it.

Our Pick: Over 51.5 (-110)

Also read: Troy vs. Western Kentucky Odds & Prediction: Solid Bet on Obscure Game