World Series Odds: Phillies vs. Astros Game 1 Line, Prediction

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The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet in the 2022 World Series, with Game 1 on Friday, Oct. 28 at Minute Maid Park. The Astros swept the New York Yankees in the AL Championship Series, while the Phillies defeated the San Diego Padres in five games in the NLCS to win the pennant.

Behind Justin Verlander, the Astros are large favorites to win Game 1, priced in the -165 to -175 range as of Friday morning. Aaron Nola and the Phillies get odds in the +138 to +145 range.

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The Astros opened as the favorites to win the seven-game series, per odds at US sportsbooks. Here are series prices from a variety of sports betting apps:

Odds to Win 2022 World Series, Phillies vs. Astros Series Prices Before Game 2

SportsbookAstros Series PricePhilles Series Price
FanDuel+110-130
DraftKings+110-130
BetMGM+110-135

BetMGM Sportsbook

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Phillies vs. Astros Game 1 World Series Odds

On Friday morning, BetMGM offers the nicest price on the Astros in Game 1 (-164), while BetRivers goes +145 on the Phillies. The total sits at 6.5 with varying degrees of juice.

Here are current odds from around the sports betting marketplace.

PHI Phillies vs HOU Astros Odds MLB Odds

MLB · Fri (10/28) @ 8:04pm ET

PHI Phillies at HOU Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas

Our Pick: HOU Astros at -167. Use Promo Code TODAYFULL for $1,250 First Bet at Caesars Sportsbook

How They Got Here

The Phillies were +2500 to win the World Series before the season began. Those odds rose as high as +5000 in August when the team fell as far as 12 games out of first and was not in position to make the playoffs.

On Opening Day of the 2022 MLB season, the Astros were +1000 to win the World Series. That number gradually shortened as the team went on to win 106 games, the most in the AL.

The Astros have been in the World Series in each of the last two years, and four times in the last six. They won the title in 2017, the only World Series triumph in franchise history. The Phillies last played in the World Series in 2009 and won it in 2008.

The Astros and Phillies have met once in the postseason: in the 1980 NL Playoffs when both teams were in the same league. The Phillies won that series in five thrilling games.

Houston hosts Games 1 and 1, and Games 3-5 will be in Philadelphia, if all are necessary. Games 6-7, if needed, will be held back in Houston.

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Phillies, Astros World Series Matchup Comparison

Below we break down the two league champions and participants in the 2022 World Series.

Starting Pitching

The Astros can roll out three aces (at least): Verlander, who will likely win his third Cy Young Award after going 18-4 with a miniscule 1.75 ERA; the sturdy record-setting quality start machine Framber Valdez; and veteran and postseason legend Lance McCullers Jr.

But then there’s Cristian Javier, whose fastball is so good he can get away with throwing it about 65% of the time, and who allowed just one hit in his start in the ALCS.

So, you’d think this would be a strong edge to the Astros, but the Phillies have two excellent pitchers at the top of their rotation. Zack Wheeler has been better over the course of the entire postseason than any starter going to the World Series. Big righthander Aaron Nola will present a tough matchup for the Astros lineup with his steady diet of breaking balls.

Because of their depth (Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia haven’t even been mentioned yet) and the mastery of Verlander, Houston has the advantage here.

Advantage: Astros

Relief Pitching

This one is easy: the 2022 Houston Astros led MLB in bullpen ERA, in fewest inherited runners allowed to score, and in whiff percentage. You could make the argument that this Houston pen is the best relief corps, for one season, in history.

The Phillies bullpen had a 4.27 ERA in the regular season. They had to patch things together and work to find the correct mix for the latter stages of games. In some ways, the bullpen was why the Phillies struggled to make the playoffs.

Advantage: Astros

Lineup

The Phillies have more hitters having epic playoff performances. Bryce Harper has already earned every penny of his $330 million contract: he’s hitting .419 with five homers and 11 RBI this postseason. Great players welcome big moments, and Harper is stepping up. Rhys Hoskins hit three homers in the final three games of the NLCS, and J.T. Realmuto has two homers. Kyle Schwarber has smacked three homers in the playoffs, and also stole two bases. The Phillies have had several players, starting with those stars, lead the way offensively.

The Astros have a longer, deeper lineup, but not all of their stars have been shining bright this postseason. It hasn’t mattered, because role players have stepped up. That list includes Chas McCormick, Martin Maldonado, and Christian Vazquez.

But if Houston’s lineup gets rolling, it’s superior to the Phils’ from 1-6. Lead-off man Jose Altuve finally got some hits at the tail end of the ALCS, he’s followed by ALCS MVP Jeremy Pena, the scary-good Jordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman (.333 with 2 HR and 7 RBI in seven PS games), string bean Kyle Tucker, who hit 60 homers over the last two season, and former batting champ Yuli Gurriel, whose 11 hits are the most of any player in this postseason.

In the regular season, the Astros had higher Wins Above Replacement at every position except catcher and first base.

Normally we would give the edge to Houston, but Philly’s lineup is performing better 1-9 this postseason, so we’ll call it even.

Advantage: PUSH

Bench

The Phillies platoon in center field and at catcher, which gives Vazquez and Trey Mancini to get in the lineup. There’s also corner fielder Aledmys Diaz, who hit 12 HR in a part-time role.  The nice thing about the Houston bench is that all of them are good defensive players.

The Phillies go with a 10-man rotation, only shuttling starters out at center field (Matt Vierling and Brandon Marsh). They also give some ABs to Edmundo Sosa, who has had big hits for this team.

Houston manager Dusty Baker uses his bench more because it’s better. There’s a big advantage to the Astros as well, because both of their catchers are excellent defenders.

Advantage: Astros

Defense

According to Defensive Efficiency, the Astros were within a whisker of the Dodgers and Yankees as the best teams to turn a batted ball into an out. The Astros have four players as finalists for Gold Glove Awards.

The Phillies were 24th out of 30 MLB teams in Defensive Efficiency. They have a few players, namely right fielder Nick Castellanos, their center field combo, as well as their third baseman. The Phils simply don’t field the ball as well as the Astros.

Advantage: Astros

Baserunning

Houston thinks about tagging up when other teams won’t. The Astros steal bases when they need to, and they move first to third very well. The Phillies are not quite in that same category. This category won’t likely make a huge difference, but in every series there seems to be a play where good baserunning makes a difference.

Advantage: Astros

Overall: Our World Series Pick

The Astros can be beat, but they won’t be. The Phillies can win the series if Wheeler and Nola keep crooked numbers off the board and their teammates pad their lead entering the last three innings. The Phillies bullpen cannot, over a seven-game series, keep the relentless Astros offense from pecking away, adding on runs or coming back to steal the lead.

The Astros bullpen is the big factor that gives the AL Champions the edge. After that, we like Alex Bregman to and Jeremy Pena to stay hot at the plate. Keep an eye out for Cristian Vazquez: he’s our longshot pick to have a big series, even in platoon role.

World Series Pick: Astros in six games

World Series Schedule

The schedule for the 2022 World Series:

  • Game 1: Friday, Oct. 28 at Houston
  • Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 29 at Houston
  • Game 3: Monday, Oct. 31 at Philadelphia
  • Game 4: Tuesday, Nov. 2 at Philadelphia
  • Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 2 at Philadelphia
  • Game 2: Friday, Nov. 4 at Houston
  • Game 2: Saturday, Nov. 5 at Houston

The World Series will be televised by FOX, and you can hear it on ESPN Radio.

About the Author
Dan Holmes

Dan Holmes

Writer and Contributor
Dan Holmes is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today with plenty of experience under his belt. Dan has written three books about sports and previously worked for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball. Currently, Dan is residing in Michigan with his family.

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