Mystik Dan has the traits the Beyer Speed Figures favor entering the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.
As expected, speed.
Since 2009, 10 of 15 winners of the second leg of the Triple Crown have posted at least a 95-plus speed figure in their race before winning the 1 3/16-mile showcase.
Mystik Dan, trained by Ken McPeek, posted a 100 in winning the Kentucky Derby by a nose in a photo finish over Sierra Leone and Forever Young two weeks ago. Those colts are eschewing Baltimore, leaving a field of challengers that, with few exceptions, come up short on pace in a 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby.
Pace has always been the game in the Preakness.
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Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom are the only other colts in the eight-horse field to hit at least 95 in their final stop before Pimlico Race Course.
The BSFs are published exclusively by the Daily Racing Form and were provided to Gaming Today.
| Last-Race Speed Figures Entering 2024 Preakness | |
|---|---|
| 1. Mugatu (20-1) | 87 |
| 2. Uncle Heavy (20-1) | 74 |
| 3. Catching Freedom (6-1) | 97 |
| 4. Mystik Dan (8-5) | 100 |
| 5. Seize the Grey (15-1) | 88 |
| 6. Just Steel (15-1) | 55 |
| 7. Tuscan Gold (9-2) | 95 |
| 8. Imagination (3-1) | 89 |
Beyer Speed Figures Explained
Developed by former Washington Post turf writer Andy Beyer, the system was unveiled in his book, Picking Winners in 1975. BSF became part of the Daily Racing Form’s past performance menu in 1992.
Beyer, associate Mark Hopkins, and six other associates now oversee the figures, incorporating computer data and human oversight.
| Preakness-WInner Beyer Speed Figure In Previous Race | |
|---|---|
| 2023 - National Treasure | 95 |
| 2022 - Early Voting | 96 |
| 2021 - Rombauer | 88 |
| 2020 - Swiss Skydiver | 99 |
| 2019 - War of Will | 95 |
| 2018 - Justify | 103 |
| 2017 - Cloud Computing | 90 |
| 2016 - Exaggerator | 101 |
| 2015 - American Pharoah | 105 |
| 2014 - California Chrome | 97 |
| 2013 - Oxbow | 90 |
| 2012 - I'll Have Another | 101 |
| 2011 - Shackleford | 97 |
| 2010 - Lookin At Lucky | 94 |
| 2009 - Rachel Alexandra | 108 |
Three Factors Determine the Figure for the Winner
- Final time in a race
- Race distance
- Track variant (inherent speed of the track)
Other Details
- For non-winners in the race, points are deducted calculating the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.
- BSF numbers apply interchangeably between tracks.
- They are also interchangeable over differing distances, so length must be taken into account when handicapping a horse’s distance preference.
| Preakness-Starter Career-best Beyer Speed Figure | |
|---|---|
| Mystik Dan | 101 |
| Catching Freedom | 97 |
| Imagination | 96 |
| Just Steel | 95 |
| Tuscan Gold | 95 |
| Seize the Grey | 88 |
| Mugatu | 87 |
| Uncle Heavy | 84 |
Beyer has opined that Secretariat’s romp to the Triple Crown in the 1973 Belmont Stakes would have earned a 139-speed figure if his system existed then. Groovy holds the record with a 133 in 1987.
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