Beyer Speed Figure Favors Mystik Dan at Preakness Stakes 2024

Mystik Dan has the traits the Beyer Speed Figures favor entering the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.

As expected, speed.

Since 2009, 10 of 15 winners of the second leg of the Triple Crown have posted at least a 95-plus speed figure in their race before winning the 1 3/16-mile showcase.

Mystik Dan, trained by Ken McPeek, posted a 100 in winning the Kentucky Derby by a nose in a photo finish over Sierra Leone and Forever Young two weeks ago. Those colts are eschewing Baltimore, leaving a field of challengers that, with few exceptions, come up short on pace in a 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby.

Pace has always been the game in the Preakness.

Also at GT: Preakness Stakes Best Bets | Preakness Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks

Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom are the only other colts in the eight-horse field to hit at least 95 in their final stop before Pimlico Race Course.

The BSFs are published exclusively by the Daily Racing Form and were provided to Gaming Today.

Last-Race Speed Figures Entering 2024 Preakness
1. Mugatu (20-1)87
2. Uncle Heavy (20-1)74
3. Catching Freedom (6-1)97
4. Mystik Dan (8-5)100
5. Seize the Grey (15-1)88
6. Just Steel (15-1)55
7. Tuscan Gold (9-2)95
8. Imagination (3-1)89

Beyer Speed Figures Explained

Developed by former Washington Post turf writer Andy Beyer, the system was unveiled in his book, Picking Winners in 1975. BSF became part of the Daily Racing Form’s past performance menu in 1992.

Beyer, associate Mark Hopkins, and six other associates now oversee the figures, incorporating computer data and human oversight.

Preakness-WInner Beyer Speed Figure In Previous Race
2023 - National Treasure95
2022 - Early Voting96
2021 - Rombauer88
2020 - Swiss Skydiver99
2019 - War of Will95
2018 - Justify103
2017 - Cloud Computing90
2016 - Exaggerator101
2015 - American Pharoah105
2014 - California Chrome97
2013 - Oxbow90
2012 - I'll Have Another101
2011 - Shackleford97
2010 - Lookin At Lucky94
2009 - Rachel Alexandra108

Three Factors Determine the Figure for the Winner

  • Final time in a race
  • Race distance
  • Track variant (inherent speed of the track)

Other Details

  • For non-winners in the race, points are deducted calculating the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.
  • BSF numbers apply interchangeably between tracks.
  • They are also interchangeable over differing distances, so length must be taken into account when handicapping a horse’s distance preference.
Preakness-Starter Career-best Beyer Speed Figure
Mystik Dan101
Catching Freedom97
Just Steel95
Tuscan Gold95
Seize the Grey88
Uncle Heavy84

Beyer has opined that Secretariat’s romp to the Triple Crown in the 1973 Belmont Stakes would have earned a 139-speed figure if his system existed then. Groovy holds the record with a 133 in 1987.


About the Author
Brant James

Brant James

Lead Writer
Brant James is a lead writer who covers the sports betting industry and legislation at Gaming Today. An alum of the Tampa Bay Times,, espnW,, and USA Today, he's covered motorsports and the NHL as beats. He also once made a tail-hook landing on an aircraft carrier with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and rode to the top of Mt. Washington with Travis Pastrana. John Tortorella has yelled at him numerous times.

Get connected with us on Social Media