Heading into NFL Week 13, we’ll continue to use the key concepts I outlined at the beginning of the season to make weekly betting picks. If you’ve been following our betting tips and strategies while using proper bankroll management, you should have a decent profit through 12 weeks.
We changed it up last week, taking a break from our usual style of prognosticating, opting instead for a very special Thanksgiving teaser. The first two legs came through as the Lions and Giants kept their games within the number. Alas, it was not to be, as we got blown out on the third leg when the Vikings and Patriots combined for 59 total points.
Say it with me…
I will not tease totals.
I will not tease totals.
I will not tease totals.
Hopefully, your third helping of mashed potatoes and a heavy dose of tryptophan kicked in by game time, and you weren’t awake to watch the disaster.
Apologies from this turkey.
But! Onward! Let’s look at some NFL Week 13 betting tips and strategies.
Bookmark this: Best sports betting apps
Betting Tips for NFL Week 13
One of the main betting strategies from my pre-season piece was to fade the betting public. Sportsbooks and casinos aren’t built because they lose to the public! When the masses like one team, it’s wise to bet the other way.
There are two games I love this week that do just that.
Bet NFL at FanDuel: Claim Your $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
Miami DOLPHINS +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ERS
As it’s been for a while now, the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills have separated themselves from the rest of the league. Of the remaining teams, there’s a rotating list of contenders in the discussion for the best “sleeper pick” to win the Super Bowl.
The sleeper team du jour is the San Francisco 49ers. They’re making a charge for the NFC Playoffs, which, other than the Eagles, remain wide open. They’ve rattled off four straight wins thanks to their strong defense and are fresh off a shutout win over the New Orleans Saints
Forgive me if I remain unimpressed.
Each of these four wins has come against bad, injured, or badly injured teams. They beat the Rams without a healthy Matthew Stafford or Cooper Kupp. They squeaked by a Chargers team with more injuries than any other team in the league. They beat the Cardinals, who started Colt McCoy in place of Kyler Murray. And last week they shut out *ahem* Andy Dalton and the Saints. Congratulations on your 13 points of offense!
And now all of a sudden people are jumping out of windows to bet the 49ers Super Bowl futures?
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Make 2023 NFL Playoffs
They host the Miami Dolphins this week, a team that’s won five straight games and leads the AFC East. Head coach Mike McDaniel faces his former team, as he served on the 49ers coaching staff since 2017 before heading to Miami.
As good as this 49ers defense has been, the Dolphins explosive offense will be a serious wake-up call. This team is FAST, and the trio of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle are a big step up in competition from backup quarterbacks and injury- plagued rosters. This will be the 49ers’ toughest defensive test since facing the Chiefs in Week 7…
…a game they lost 44-23.
The Dolphins rank third overall in first-half points scored. They can put up points in a hurry with their up-tempo offense. The 49ers play a much more conservative style that’s built to hold a lead instead of playing catch-up. Against this Dolphins team that’s scored 30+ points in four straight games, that’s going to be tough.
Not only are we betting against the public, but we’re getting the better overall team as an underdog. That’s usually profitable. Give me the Dolphins at +3.5, and I’ll add another piece on the moneyline at +160
Bet NFL Week 13: Get up to $1,250 in bonuses at DraftKings
Kansas City CHIEFS (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati BENGALS
Another golden rule for betting the NFL? Bet the Kansas City Chiefs as a short favorite against… anyone.
The Chiefs are cementing their status as the team to beat in the AFC. Winners of six of their last seven games, the Chiefs are rolling. Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite, the Chiefs offense leads the league in points scored, and the sky remains the limit for this football juggernaut.
The Chiefs face the Cincinnati Bengals, who, after a shaky start to their season, are emerging as a Super Bowl contender themselves. Despite losing star receiver Ja’Marr Chase to injury, Joe Burrow put the team on his back and won three straight games. The Bengals are now tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North.
Bet NFL at BetMGM: Use promo code TODAY for a $1,000 risk-free bet
Revenge spots can be good angles, and you can bet Chiefs head coach Andy Reid circled this game on his calendar the minute the schedules were released.
The Chiefs lost to the Bengals twice last year. After losing a close game during the regular season, they suffered a shocking loss at home during the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs held an 18-point lead against the Bengals in that game but lost 27-24 in overtime. It was a stunning meltdown at Arrowhead and should serve as serious motivation for Kansas City this week.
The Chiefs are averaging close to 30 points per game and well over 400 total yards on offense. And while their passing attack is explosive, Mahomes can exploit the weak Bengals defense with his legs as well. This game could be over quickly if the Bengals can’t contain him.
This line opened Chiefs -3 and has been bet down to as short as -1.5. The market is giving us a free point and a half, and we get to use it by backing the best team in the NFL?
That’s good enough for me. Take the Chiefs at this short number.